NRL S2016 R10 predictions and staking guide
maxwellAI
08 May 2016
Summary
We just had a round of representative games this weekend and matches are still 5 days away so these predictions are a bit preliminary, however are based on current knowledge. The odds currently offered are also likely to change because there hasn’t been a lot of bet placement on games for round 10 due to the rep games these weekend. I expect we will start to see a bit of odds movement soon as punters start to look towards this weeks round of games. Also I expect a bit of odds movement on Parramatta. For those unaware Parramatta has been hit with a range of diciplinary actions due to alleged salary cap breaches. This could mean the (forced) removal of some current team players before their match up with the Rabbits next week in addition to the (potential) psychological effects on the players. Interestingly Parramatta are still $1.48 favorites to beat the Rabbits and for my mind currently represents one of the best hedging opportunities for those odds. In fact my model currently indicates Rabbits as having a higher probability of winning than Parramatta putting aside results of disciplinary action.
For round 10 all of the predictions currently agree with the bookmaker with the exception of Parramatta vs Rabbits, which I indicated above. The model indicates 5 matches which represent good value (at current odds). Even given the currently short odds ($1.25) on Broncos and Sharks to win their respective games the model very strongly (>82% probability) suggests these teams will win.
We may have to re-visit the predictions and stake recommendations closer to match dates
Predictions
| game_no | tip_text | perceived_prob | bookie_prob | bookie_odds | agree_with_bookie |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St George Illawarra Dragons to win against Canberra Raiders while Home | 0.674 | 0.526 | 1.90 | Y |
| 2 | South Sydney Rabbitohs to win against Parramatta Eels while Away | 0.569 | 0.377 | 2.65 | N |
| 3 | New Zealand Warriors to win against Penrith Panthers while Away | 0.653 | 0.526 | 1.90 | Y |
| 4 | North Queensland Cowboys to win against Melbourne Storm while Away | 0.722 | 0.704 | 1.42 | Y |
| 5 | Brisbane Broncos to win against Manly Sea Eagles while Away | 0.828 | 0.800 | 1.25 | Y |
| 6 | Cronulla Sharks to win against Newcastle Knights while Away | 0.932 | 0.800 | 1.25 | Y |
| 7 | Canterbury Bulldogs to win against Wests Tigers while Away | 0.799 | 0.781 | 1.28 | Y |
| 8 | Sydney Roosters to win against Gold Coast Titans while Away | 0.577 | 0.645 | 1.55 | Y |
NB Bookmaker odds (taken from www.Sportsbet.com.au) as at 3-May-2016
Stake recommendation/s
Recommended bets are those with a perceived probability of > ~0.66 and a positive expected return.
| game_no | tip_text | perceived_prob | bookie_odds | expected_return | recommend_stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St George Illawarra Dragons to win against Canberra Raiders while Home | 0.674 | 1.90 | 0.280 | Y |
| 2 | South Sydney Rabbitohs to win against Parramatta Eels while Away | 0.569 | 2.65 | 0.508 | N |
| 3 | New Zealand Warriors to win against Penrith Panthers while Away | 0.653 | 1.90 | 0.242 | N |
| 4 | North Queensland Cowboys to win against Melbourne Storm while Away | 0.722 | 1.42 | 0.026 | Y |
| 5 | Brisbane Broncos to win against Manly Sea Eagles while Away | 0.828 | 1.25 | 0.034 | Y |
| 6 | Cronulla Sharks to win against Newcastle Knights while Away | 0.932 | 1.25 | 0.165 | Y |
| 7 | Canterbury Bulldogs to win against Wests Tigers while Away | 0.799 | 1.28 | 0.023 | Y |
| 8 | Sydney Roosters to win against Gold Coast Titans while Away | 0.577 | 1.55 | -0.105 | N |
Conclude
Lets hope we have a good round. Good luck contributors!