NRL S2016 R25 prediction and staking guide
maxwellAI
25 August 2016
Summary
This week most of the predictions are in line with the bookmaker with the exception of two close call matches. The model is tipping Bulldogs over Cowboys (at 56% win probability) and Penrith over Gold Coast (at a very close 50.2%). Both of these games are close to the line at 2.2 and 2.10 respectively.
The model has identified three matches to bet on this week, so lets see how we go!.
As an aside Sportsbet currently has a promo where if your team loses by 8 points or less you get your cash back on the bet (up to $50) so it might be worth looking at some of the matches I wouldn’t ordinarily recommend a bet on.
Particularly, since there are a few close call matches this round (and will likely be pretty close call games) it might be worth taking a punt on these matches considering the money back offer.
So if your a punter, take a look at:
Manly to win over Canberra (I have it as a pretty close call match even though I have tipped Canberra) but Manly is offering very good odds
Penrith over Gold Coast
Bulldogs over North Queensland
Predictions
| game_no | tip_text | perceived_prob | bookie_prob | bookie_odds | agree_with_bookie |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Canterbury Bulldogs to win against North Queensland Cowboys while Home | 0.556 | 0.455 | 2.20 | N |
| 2 | Cronulla Sharks to win against Sydney Roosters while Home | 0.705 | 0.633 | 1.58 | Y |
| 3 | Penrith Panthers to win against Gold Coast Titans while Away | 0.502 | 0.476 | 2.10 | N |
| 4 | Canberra Raiders to win against Manly Sea Eagles while Away | 0.530 | 0.680 | 1.47 | Y |
| 5 | Melbourne Storm to win against Brisbane Broncos while Home | 0.752 | 0.690 | 1.45 | Y |
| 6 | New Zealand Warriors to win against Wests Tigers while Home | 0.676 | 0.758 | 1.32 | Y |
| 7 | South Sydney Rabbitohs to win against Newcastle Knights while Away | 0.679 | 0.813 | 1.23 | Y |
| 8 | Parramatta Eels to win against St George Illawarra Dragons while Home | 0.747 | 0.645 | 1.55 | Y |
NB Bookmaker odds (taken from www.Sportsbet.com.au) as at 25-August-2016
Stake recommendation/s
Recommended bets are those with a perceived probability of > ~0.66 and a positive expected return.
| game_no | tip_text | perceived_prob | bookie_odds | expected_return | recommend_stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Canterbury Bulldogs to win against North Queensland Cowboys while Home | 0.556 | 2.20 | 0.223 | N |
| 2 | Cronulla Sharks to win against Sydney Roosters while Home | 0.705 | 1.58 | 0.114 | Y |
| 3 | Penrith Panthers to win against Gold Coast Titans while Away | 0.502 | 2.10 | 0.055 | N |
| 4 | Canberra Raiders to win against Manly Sea Eagles while Away | 0.530 | 1.47 | -0.222 | N |
| 5 | Melbourne Storm to win against Brisbane Broncos while Home | 0.752 | 1.45 | 0.090 | Y |
| 6 | New Zealand Warriors to win against Wests Tigers while Home | 0.676 | 1.32 | -0.108 | N |
| 7 | South Sydney Rabbitohs to win against Newcastle Knights while Away | 0.679 | 1.23 | -0.165 | N |
| 8 | Parramatta Eels to win against St George Illawarra Dragons while Home | 0.747 | 1.55 | 0.158 | Y |
Conclude
Lets see how the model performs this round!