After a pretty good first round of 6 out of 8 correct picks (75% accuracy) I present the round 2 predictions.
All of the picks this round are in line with the bookies so not a whole lot to say. I have included a new column indicating if the tip is in line with the bookmaker.
I have been updating the model continuously and the ‘old’ model (the one used for round 1) actually predicts St George to win against the Sharks, which would be the only game betting against the bookies.
Quick tips:
| Penrith Panthers to win against Canterbury Bulldogs while Home |
| Brisbane Broncos to win against New Zealand Warriors while Home |
| Canberra Raiders to win against Sydney Roosters while Home |
| South Sydney Rabbitohs to win against Newcastle Knights while Home |
| North Queensland Cowboys to win against Parramatta Eels while Away |
| Cronulla Sharks to win against St George Illawarra Dragons while Home |
| Melbourne Storm to win against Gold Coast Titans while Home |
| Manly Sea Eagles to win against Wests Tigers while Away |
Detailed table:
NRL 2016 R02 Predictions
| Team to win | Team to lose | Preceived Probability | Perceived Odds | Implied Odds | Implied Probability | Expected Return | Kelly Fraction | Agree with bookmaker? | Tip text |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penrith Panthers | Canterbury Bulldogs | 0.543 | 1.843 | 1.85 | 0.541 | 0.004 | 0.005 | Y | Penrith Panthers to win against Canterbury Bulldogs while Home |
| Brisbane Broncos | New Zealand Warriors | 0.658 | 1.519 | 1.5 | 0.667 | -0.013 | -0.025 | Y | Brisbane Broncos to win against New Zealand Warriors while Home |
| Canberra Raiders | Sydney Roosters | 0.615 | 1.626 | 1.72 | 0.581 | 0.058 | 0.08 | Y | Canberra Raiders to win against Sydney Roosters while Home |
| South Sydney Rabbitohs | Newcastle Knights | 0.649 | 1.541 | 1.35 | 0.741 | -0.124 | -0.354 | Y | South Sydney Rabbitohs to win against Newcastle Knights while Home |
| North Queensland Cowboys | Parramatta Eels | 0.587 | 1.704 | 1.65 | 0.606 | -0.032 | -0.049 | Y | North Queensland Cowboys to win against Parramatta Eels while Away |
| Cronulla Sharks | St George Illawarra Dragons | 0.63 | 1.588 | 1.5 | 0.667 | -0.055 | -0.111 | Y | Cronulla Sharks to win against St George Illawarra Dragons while Home |
| Melbourne Storm | Gold Coast Titans | 0.721 | 1.387 | 1.2 | 0.833 | -0.135 | -0.673 | Y | Melbourne Storm to win against Gold Coast Titans while Home |
| Manly Sea Eagles | Wests Tigers | 0.633 | 1.58 | 1.55 | 0.645 | -0.019 | -0.035 | Y | Manly Sea Eagles to win against Wests Tigers while Away |