Summary

This week is another bye week and lead up to Origin game 3. The model has favored Sharks and Cowboys despite the loss of players to Origin. The market has jumped on this and is predicting these teams to loose by comparison. Since the model has performed poorly during bye weeks around origin I would not recommend using these predictions to stake on games.

This weeks predictions and recommended stakes below:

Conclude

Lets see how the model performs this round!

Summary

This weeks predictions and recommended stakes below:

Conclude

Lets see how the model performs this round!

Summary

The majority of games this week are in line with the bookmakers and a few games are tipped as being good value bets.

I need to have a hard look at the team lists this week (as some players will be resting up after origin) to determine if I will take action on the recommended stakes. I’ll keep you posted:

Conclude

Lets see how the model performs this round!

Summary

There are only four games this week due to byes leading up to State of Origin game 2 (kick-off 22-June). There are three games which disagree with the bookmaker this week; however the majority of win predictions are modest (<55% chance of win).

The exception is Storm vs Dragons - the bookmaker/market has Dragons as strong favorites (~1.52 back odds) whereas the model has Storm as moderate-strong favorites (63% chance of winning (equivalent to 1.58 odds)). The reason Dragons are strong favorites according to the market is that Storm have two star players out this week (Cameron Smith and Cooper Cronk are OUT due to origin (playing for Qld)). Although the model attempts to accommodate for team dynamic changes, the model obviously has less weight on this variable (players) than the market.

The other (strong) model vs bookmaker disagreement is Roosters vs Warriors. The model favors Roosters, despite them being down four players this week (Abraham Papalii, Aidan Guerra,Blake Ferguson & Eloni Vunakece).

As stated in my last round-up post, I am not completely confident that the model is accounting for large team changes especially around origin, so I am choosing to abstain from bets this round (the model hasn’t indicated any good value bets this round in any case)

As a point of interest, below is the line up for Origin game 2:

Line up for Origin (Source)

QLD:

1. Darius Boyd, 2. Corey Oates, 3. Greg Inglis, 4. Justin O’Neill, 5. Dane Gagai, 6. Johnathan Thurston, 7. Cooper Cronk, 8. Matt Scott, 9. Cameron Smith (c), 10. Josh McGuire, 11. Matt Gillett, 12. Sam Thaiday, 13. Corey Parker

Interchange: 14. Michael Morgan, 15. Jacob Lillyman, 16. Aidan Guerra, 17. Josh Papalii, 18th man. Ethan Lowe

NSW

1. Matt Moylan, 2. Blake Ferguson, 3. Michael Jennings, 4. Josh Morris, 5. Josh Mansour, 6. James Maloney, 7. Adam Reynolds, 8. Aaron Woods, 9. Robbie Farah, 10. James Tamou, 15. Greg Bird, 12. Josh Jackson, 13. Paul Gallen

Interchange: 14. Dylan Walker, 18. Tyson Frizell, 16. David Klemmer, 17. Andrew Fifita

Now lets take a look at this weeks predictions in detail:

Conclude

Lets see how the model performs this round!

Summary

This week (most) of the teams are back at full strength after player layups due to Origin. Predictions this week are mostly in alignment with the bookmaker/market with the exception of:

• Eels v Titans. The model indicates a 59% chance that Eels will win vs the bookmakers 46%

and

• Eagles vs Penrith. The model indicates a 57% chance that Eels will win vs the bookmakers 36%

The largest discrepancy between the model and bookmaker is in the Eagles penrith game.

All games which are in agreement with the bookmaker have negative expected return (indicating poor value bets) and the two games above which are in disagreement with the bookmakers do not meet our probability threshold for wagers (0.66), so again no bets this week!

Conclude

Lets see how the model performs this round!

Summary

NB!! There is currently high volatility in team player lists due to State of Origin matches. During this period there is a self imposed betting ban. Last round was an extremely poor predictive and staking round (1/4 predictive accuracy and 2 staking loss’) indicating the model is not sufficiently catering for team changes. While I have tweaked some model parameters in attempt to mitigate this, I don’t have high confidence team dynamic is accurately reflected in the model.

This round all tips are (currently) in line with bookmaker predictions. However, there is an expectation of low predictive performance due to change in team and match dynamics. Although I wont be staking until team volatility has stabilized, I have supplied preferred bets based on my usual parameters and assuming normal circumstances. Two bets are identified as good value (Storm v Panthers & Roosters v Tigers).

Conclude

Lets see how the model performs this round!

Summary

There are only four matches this round in the lead up to origin next week.

This week the model has identified two matches as good value bets (Broncos to win against Tigers and Cowboys to win against St George). Additionally the model is in disagreement with the bookmaker on two games (Cowboys vs St George and Bulldogs vs Canberra). I am aware that Cowboys and Broncos are missing a lot of (key) players this round due to pending origin matches, however the model still thinks they have a strong chance of winning.

Even though Broncos are at short odds (1.25) the model indicates that we still have positive expected return (our probability that Broncos will win is higher than the probability of the offered odds)

For St George vs Cowboys, currently St George are favorites to win over the Cowboys, however the model predicts the Cowboys as having >70% of winning. This is the best value bet meeting our staking probability threshold (>66%)

Another ‘good’ value bet with high expected return i Bulldogs vs Canberra, however this match doesn’t quite meet our staking probability requirements.

Conclude

Lets hope we have a good round. Good luck contributors!