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The NRL Experiment – About

Kane Maxwell

The NRL experiment is a personal challenge to:

  • use machine learning algorithm/s (predictive models) to predict the outcome of every match of the 2016 NRL season with an accuracy of >0.5
  • stake on 2016 matches using the optimal staking strategy in conjunction with predictions made by the machine learning algorithm/s
  • make a profit over the 2016 season
  • provide best practice guidance on machine learning for sports-betting
In order to make this challenge transparent, and to enable me to track progress, over the 2016 season I will be publishing the predicted outcome (in accordance to the predictive model) of every match before each round/game. In addition I will be providing details such as the perceived probability and odds of a team winning and comparing this against the bookmakers odds. I will also be tracking the progress of every prediction and will summarise in ’roundup’ each week. Additionally I will be staking on each game in accordance with a specific staking strategy (which I will also publish) with the aim to make a season profit. Predicted outcomes, results and staking plans will all be located under the NRL Experiment posts category.

In order to undertake this challenge a lot of ground work had to be laid.  The details behind the groundwork and more specifically, the theoretical performance of the machine learning algorithms can be found in ‘NRL Predictive modelling – deep dive’ and ‘Staking Strategy’, however the very high-level results of the work show that:

“the best machine learning algorithms can predict the outcome of NRL matches with 54-60% accuracy across a season”

and that:

“by using an appropriate staking strategy you could expect a return on investment of 15-20%”

It is on that basis I have chosen to proceed with the challenge and see if we can put theory into practice.

Let the experiment begin!!

 

 

NRL S2016 finals round predictions

Kane Maxwell

NRL S2016 Finals round tips

Summary

No bets were laid during the finals round due to low confidence in historic model prediction/s, however I posthumously present the models predictions for the 2016 finals season.

Round 27 = Quarter-finals

Round 28 = Semi-finals

Round 29 = Preliminary finals

Round 30 = Grand final

The model recommended bets on Canberra to beat Penrith in the Semi final, and Sharks to beat Cowboys (in the preliminary final). Both bets would have returned wins.

Predictions

round_no game_no tip_text perceived_prob bookie_prob bookie_odds agree_with_bookie
27 1 Brisbane Broncos to win against Gold Coast Titans while Home 0.693 0.758 1.32 Y
27 2 Canberra Raiders to win against Cronulla Sharks while Home 0.531 0.680 1.47 Y
27 3 Melbourne Storm to win against North Queensland Cowboys while Home 0.722 0.578 1.73 Y
27 4 Penrith Panthers to win against Canterbury Bulldogs while Home 0.634 0.629 1.59 Y
28 1 North Queensland Cowboys to win against Brisbane Broncos while Home 0.608 0.671 1.49 Y
28 2 Canberra Raiders to win against Penrith Panthers while Home 0.725 0.602 1.66 Y
29 1 Cronulla Sharks to win against North Queensland Cowboys while Home 0.764 0.495 2.02 N
29 2 Melbourne Storm to win against Canberra Raiders while Home 0.636 0.704 1.42 Y
30 1 Melbourne Storm to win against Cronulla Sharks while Home 0.567 0.538 1.86 Y

NB Bookmaker odds (taken from www.oddsportal.com.au) as at 3-October-2016

Stake recommendation/s

Recommended bets are those with a perceived probability of > ~0.66 and a positive expected return.

round_no game_no tip_text perceived_prob bookie_odds expected_return recommend_stake
27 1 Brisbane Broncos to win against Gold Coast Titans while Home 0.693 1.32 -0.086 N
27 2 Canberra Raiders to win against Cronulla Sharks while Home 0.531 1.47 -0.219 N
27 3 Melbourne Storm to win against North Queensland Cowboys while Home 0.722 1.73 0.249 Y
27 4 Penrith Panthers to win against Canterbury Bulldogs while Home 0.634 1.59 0.009 N
28 1 North Queensland Cowboys to win against Brisbane Broncos while Home 0.608 1.49 -0.094 N
28 2 Canberra Raiders to win against Penrith Panthers while Home 0.725 1.66 0.204 Y
29 1 Cronulla Sharks to win against North Queensland Cowboys while Home 0.764 2.02 0.543 Y
29 2 Melbourne Storm to win against Canberra Raiders while Home 0.636 1.42 -0.097 N
30 1 Melbourne Storm to win against Cronulla Sharks while Home 0.567 1.86 0.055 N

NRL S2016 R26 Predictions and staking guide

Kane Maxwell

NRL S2016 R26 prediction and staking guide

Summary

Ok! This is the last round of the regular season!!

This week all predictions are in line with the bookmaker and four matches have been identified as good value.

Specifically, value bets are:

  • Melbourne Storm to win against Cronulla Sharks while Home (to take out the minor premiership)

  • Canterbury Bulldogs to win against South Sydney Rabbitohs while Home

  • North Queensland Cowboys to win against Gold Coast Titans while Home

  • St George Illawarra Dragons to win against Newcastle Knights while Home

Also note that I have a fair few bets which I predict a win at >66% or close to 66% and due to sportsbet ongoing promotion of 8 point margin cash back betting you might want to take a look at these bets as well.

Predictions

game_no tip_text perceived_prob bookie_prob bookie_odds agree_with_bookie
1 Brisbane Broncos to win against Sydney Roosters while Home 0.753 0.781 1.28 Y
2 Canterbury Bulldogs to win against South Sydney Rabbitohs while Home 0.778 0.606 1.65 Y
3 Melbourne Storm to win against Cronulla Sharks while Home 0.718 0.690 1.45 Y
4 New Zealand Warriors to win against Parramatta Eels while Home 0.656 0.704 1.42 Y
5 North Queensland Cowboys to win against Gold Coast Titans while Home 0.776 0.758 1.32 Y
6 Penrith Panthers to win against Manly Sea Eagles while Home 0.685 0.781 1.28 Y
7 St George Illawarra Dragons to win against Newcastle Knights while Home 0.884 0.752 1.33 Y
8 Canberra Raiders to win against Wests Tigers while Away 0.626 0.606 1.65 Y

NB Bookmaker odds (taken from www.Sportsbet.com.au) as at 30-August-2016

Stake recommendation/s

Recommended bets are those with a perceived probability of > ~0.66 and a positive expected return.

game_no tip_text perceived_prob bookie_odds expected_return recommend_stake
1 Brisbane Broncos to win against Sydney Roosters while Home 0.753 1.28 -0.036 N
2 Canterbury Bulldogs to win against South Sydney Rabbitohs while Home 0.778 1.65 0.283 Y
3 Melbourne Storm to win against Cronulla Sharks while Home 0.718 1.45 0.041 Y
4 New Zealand Warriors to win against Parramatta Eels while Home 0.656 1.42 -0.069 N
5 North Queensland Cowboys to win against Gold Coast Titans while Home 0.776 1.32 0.025 Y
6 Penrith Panthers to win against Manly Sea Eagles while Home 0.685 1.28 -0.124 N
7 St George Illawarra Dragons to win against Newcastle Knights while Home 0.884 1.33 0.175 Y
8 Canberra Raiders to win against Wests Tigers while Away 0.626 1.65 0.032 N

Conclude

Lets see how the model performs this round!

NRL S2016 R25 Predictions and staking guide

Kane Maxwell

NRL S2016 R25 prediction and staking guide

Summary

This week most of the predictions are in line with the bookmaker with the exception of two close call matches. The model is tipping Bulldogs over Cowboys (at 56% win probability) and Penrith over Gold Coast (at a very close 50.2%). Both of these games are close to the line at 2.2 and 2.10 respectively.

The model has identified three matches to bet on this week, so lets see how we go!.

As an aside Sportsbet currently has a promo where if your team loses by 8 points or less you get your cash back on the bet (up to $50) so it might be worth looking at some of the matches I wouldn’t ordinarily recommend a bet on.

Particularly, since there are a few close call matches this round (and will likely be pretty close call games) it might be worth taking a punt on these matches considering the money back offer.

So if your a punter, take a look at:

  • Manly to win over Canberra (I have it as a pretty close call match even though I have tipped Canberra) but Manly is offering very good odds

  • Penrith over Gold Coast

  • Bulldogs over North Queensland

Predictions

game_no tip_text perceived_prob bookie_prob bookie_odds agree_with_bookie
1 Canterbury Bulldogs to win against North Queensland Cowboys while Home 0.556 0.455 2.20 N
2 Cronulla Sharks to win against Sydney Roosters while Home 0.705 0.633 1.58 Y
3 Penrith Panthers to win against Gold Coast Titans while Away 0.502 0.476 2.10 N
4 Canberra Raiders to win against Manly Sea Eagles while Away 0.530 0.680 1.47 Y
5 Melbourne Storm to win against Brisbane Broncos while Home 0.752 0.690 1.45 Y
6 New Zealand Warriors to win against Wests Tigers while Home 0.676 0.758 1.32 Y
7 South Sydney Rabbitohs to win against Newcastle Knights while Away 0.679 0.813 1.23 Y
8 Parramatta Eels to win against St George Illawarra Dragons while Home 0.747 0.645 1.55 Y

NB Bookmaker odds (taken from www.Sportsbet.com.au) as at 25-August-2016

Stake recommendation/s

Recommended bets are those with a perceived probability of > ~0.66 and a positive expected return.

game_no tip_text perceived_prob bookie_odds expected_return recommend_stake
1 Canterbury Bulldogs to win against North Queensland Cowboys while Home 0.556 2.20 0.223 N
2 Cronulla Sharks to win against Sydney Roosters while Home 0.705 1.58 0.114 Y
3 Penrith Panthers to win against Gold Coast Titans while Away 0.502 2.10 0.055 N
4 Canberra Raiders to win against Manly Sea Eagles while Away 0.530 1.47 -0.222 N
5 Melbourne Storm to win against Brisbane Broncos while Home 0.752 1.45 0.090 Y
6 New Zealand Warriors to win against Wests Tigers while Home 0.676 1.32 -0.108 N
7 South Sydney Rabbitohs to win against Newcastle Knights while Away 0.679 1.23 -0.165 N
8 Parramatta Eels to win against St George Illawarra Dragons while Home 0.747 1.55 0.158 Y

Conclude

Lets see how the model performs this round!

NRL 2016 R24 Predictions and staking guide

Kane Maxwell

NRL S2016 R24 prediction and staking guide

Summary

This week all predictions are in line with the bookmaker with the exception of St George vs Roosters where the model is tipping a St George win. Three games have been identified as being ‘good’ value bets in terms of our defined bet rules. Lets see how we go!

Predictions

game_no tip_text perceived_prob bookie_prob bookie_odds agree_with_bookie
1 Brisbane Broncos to win against Canterbury Bulldogs while Home 0.506 0.617 1.62 Y
2 Canberra Raiders to win against Parramatta Eels while Home 0.761 0.820 1.22 Y
3 Melbourne Storm to win against Manly Sea Eagles while Away 0.775 0.735 1.36 Y
4 Gold Coast Titans to win against Newcastle Knights while Away 0.853 0.833 1.20 Y
5 North Queensland Cowboys to win against New Zealand Warriors while Home 0.660 0.806 1.24 Y
6 Penrith Panthers to win against Wests Tigers while Home 0.621 0.769 1.30 Y
7 Cronulla Sharks to win against South Sydney Rabbitohs while Away 0.834 0.714 1.40 Y
8 St George Illawarra Dragons to win against Sydney Roosters while Away 0.561 0.364 2.75 N

NB Bookmaker odds (taken from www.Sportsbet.com.au) as at 18-August-2016

Stake recommendation/s

Recommended bets are those with a perceived probability of > ~0.66 and a positive expected return.

game_no tip_text perceived_prob bookie_odds expected_return recommend_stake
1 Brisbane Broncos to win against Canterbury Bulldogs while Home 0.506 1.62 -0.180 N
2 Canberra Raiders to win against Parramatta Eels while Home 0.761 1.22 -0.072 N
3 Melbourne Storm to win against Manly Sea Eagles while Away 0.775 1.36 0.055 Y
4 Gold Coast Titans to win against Newcastle Knights while Away 0.853 1.20 0.024 Y
5 North Queensland Cowboys to win against New Zealand Warriors while Home 0.660 1.24 -0.182 N
6 Penrith Panthers to win against Wests Tigers while Home 0.621 1.30 -0.193 N
7 Cronulla Sharks to win against South Sydney Rabbitohs while Away 0.834 1.40 0.167 Y
8 St George Illawarra Dragons to win against Sydney Roosters while Away 0.561 2.75 0.543 N

Conclude

Lets see how the model performs this round!

NRL 2016 R23 Predictions and staking guide

Kane Maxwell

NRL S2016 R23 prediction and staking guide

Summary

This week all tips are in agreement with the bookmaker. Cowboys are the only team identified as worth backing (at current odds of 1.48). They will remain a good option assuming odds don’t fall below 1.41.

Predictions

game_no tip_text perceived_prob bookie_prob bookie_odds agree_with_bookie
1 Brisbane Broncos to win against Parramatta Eels while Home 0.687 0.781 1.28 Y
2 Melbourne Storm to win against Canberra Raiders while Away 0.593 0.565 1.77 Y
3 Canterbury Bulldogs to win against Manly Sea Eagles while Home 0.678 0.704 1.42 Y
4 New Zealand Warriors to win against South Sydney Rabbitohs while Home 0.609 0.735 1.36 Y
5 Penrith Panthers to win against Newcastle Knights while Away 0.730 0.820 1.22 Y
6 Cronulla Sharks to win against St George Illawarra Dragons while Away 0.678 0.787 1.27 Y
7 North Queensland Cowboys to win against Sydney Roosters while Away 0.710 0.676 1.48 Y
8 Wests Tigers to win against Gold Coast Titans while Home 0.530 0.521 1.92 Y

NB Bookmaker odds (taken from www.Sportsbet.com.au) as at 11-August-2016

Stake recommendation/s

Recommended bets are those with a perceived probability of > ~0.66 and a positive expected return.

game_no tip_text perceived_prob bookie_odds expected_return recommend_stake
1 Brisbane Broncos to win against Parramatta Eels while Home 0.687 1.28 -0.121 N
2 Melbourne Storm to win against Canberra Raiders while Away 0.593 1.77 0.049 N
3 Canterbury Bulldogs to win against Manly Sea Eagles while Home 0.678 1.42 -0.037 N
4 New Zealand Warriors to win against South Sydney Rabbitohs while Home 0.609 1.36 -0.171 N
5 Penrith Panthers to win against Newcastle Knights while Away 0.730 1.22 -0.109 N
6 Cronulla Sharks to win against St George Illawarra Dragons while Away 0.678 1.27 -0.139 N
7 North Queensland Cowboys to win against Sydney Roosters while Away 0.710 1.48 0.051 Y
8 Wests Tigers to win against Gold Coast Titans while Home 0.530 1.92 0.018 N

Conclude

Lets see how the model performs this round!

NRL S2016 R22 Predictions and staking guide

Kane Maxwell

NRL S2016 R22 prediction and staking guide

Summary

This week all tips are in agreement with the bookmaker with the exception of Parramatta Eels v Manly Sea Eagles.

The model is recommending one match as good value to stake on at current odds (Cronulla Sharks to win against Canberra Raiders while Home)

Please note the game ordering is a little screwy - and the games aren’t in correct order of play this round! Working on a fix!

Also note, although the model is tipping Titans to win this weekend the model isn’t factoring in the return of star Jarryd Hayne.

Predictions

game_no tip_text perceived_prob bookie_prob bookie_odds agree_with_bookie
1 Cronulla Sharks to win against Canberra Raiders while Home 0.703 0.699 1.43 Y
2 Gold Coast Titans to win against New Zealand Warriors while Home 0.525 0.645 1.55 Y
3 Melbourne Storm to win against South Sydney Rabbitohs while Home 0.797 0.909 1.10 Y
4 Canterbury Bulldogs to win against Newcastle Knights while Away 0.823 0.877 1.14 Y
5 Parramatta Eels to win against Manly Sea Eagles while Home 0.588 0.351 2.85 N
6 Penrith Panthers to win against Sydney Roosters while Home 0.538 0.637 1.57 Y
7 Brisbane Broncos to win against St George Illawarra Dragons while Away 0.595 0.806 1.24 Y
8 North Queensland Cowboys to win against Wests Tigers while Away 0.665 0.704 1.42 Y

NB Bookmaker odds (taken from www.Sportsbet.com.au) as at 4-August-2016

Stake recommendation/s

Recommended bets are those with a perceived probability of > ~0.66 and a positive expected return.

game_no tip_text perceived_prob bookie_odds expected_return recommend_stake
1 Cronulla Sharks to win against Canberra Raiders while Home 0.703 1.43 0.006 Y
2 Gold Coast Titans to win against New Zealand Warriors while Home 0.525 1.55 -0.186 N
3 Melbourne Storm to win against South Sydney Rabbitohs while Home 0.797 1.10 -0.123 N
4 Canterbury Bulldogs to win against Newcastle Knights while Away 0.823 1.14 -0.061 N
5 Parramatta Eels to win against Manly Sea Eagles while Home 0.588 2.85 0.677 N
6 Penrith Panthers to win against Sydney Roosters while Home 0.538 1.57 -0.155 N
7 Brisbane Broncos to win against St George Illawarra Dragons while Away 0.595 1.24 -0.262 N
8 North Queensland Cowboys to win against Wests Tigers while Away 0.665 1.42 -0.056 N

Conclude

Lets see how the model performs this round!

NRL S2016 R21 Predictions and staking guide

Kane Maxwell

NRL S2016 R21 prediction and staking guide

Summary

This week we have 6 of 8 predictions in agreement with the current bookmaker odds; exceptions being games 5 & 6 where the model is tipping North Queensland Cowboys to win against Melbourne Storm and Raiders and Parramatta Eels to win against Wests Tigers to beat their respective opponents! Please note the game ordering is a little screwy - and the games aren’t in correct order of play this round! Only noticed late this evening - working on a fix!

Predictions

game_no tip_text perceived_prob bookie_prob bookie_odds agree_with_bookie
1 Canterbury Bulldogs to win against St George Illawarra Dragons while Home 0.669 0.870 1.15 Y
2 Cronulla Sharks to win against Gold Coast Titans while Away 0.684 0.690 1.45 Y
3 Manly Sea Eagles to win against Newcastle Knights while Home 0.813 0.909 1.10 Y
4 New Zealand Warriors to win against Penrith Panthers while Home 0.557 0.578 1.73 Y
5 North Queensland Cowboys to win against Melbourne Storm while Home 0.595 0.476 2.10 N
6 Parramatta Eels to win against Wests Tigers while Home 0.556 0.339 2.95 N
7 Canberra Raiders to win against South Sydney Rabbitohs while Away 0.530 0.714 1.40 Y
8 Brisbane Broncos to win against Sydney Roosters while Away 0.607 0.521 1.92 Y

NB Bookmaker odds (taken from www.Sportsbet.com.au) as at 28-July-2016

Stake recommendation/s

Recommended bets are those with a perceived probability of > ~0.66 and a positive expected return.

game_no tip_text perceived_prob bookie_odds expected_return recommend_stake
1 Canterbury Bulldogs to win against St George Illawarra Dragons while Home 0.669 1.15 -0.231 N
2 Cronulla Sharks to win against Gold Coast Titans while Away 0.684 1.45 -0.008 N
3 Manly Sea Eagles to win against Newcastle Knights while Home 0.813 1.10 -0.106 N
4 New Zealand Warriors to win against Penrith Panthers while Home 0.557 1.73 -0.036 N
5 North Queensland Cowboys to win against Melbourne Storm while Home 0.595 2.10 0.250 N
6 Parramatta Eels to win against Wests Tigers while Home 0.556 2.95 0.640 N
7 Canberra Raiders to win against South Sydney Rabbitohs while Away 0.530 1.40 -0.258 N
8 Brisbane Broncos to win against Sydney Roosters while Away 0.607 1.92 0.165 N

Conclude

Lets see how the model performs this round!

NRL S2016 R20 Predictions and staking guide

Kane Maxwell

NRL S2016 R19 prediction and staking guide

Summary

This week we have 6 of 8 predictions in agreement with the current bookmaker odds; exceptions being games 7 & 8 where the model is tipping St George to beat West Tigers and the Rabbits to win at home!

Predictions

game_no tip_text perceived_prob bookie_prob bookie_odds agree_with_bookie
1 North Queensland Cowboys to win against Canterbury Bulldogs while Home 0.673 0.685 1.46 Y
2 Brisbane Broncos to win against Penrith Panthers while Home 0.719 0.769 1.30 Y
3 Canberra Raiders to win against New Zealand Warriors while Home 0.606 0.690 1.45 Y
4 Gold Coast Titans to win against Parramatta Eels while Home 0.505 0.704 1.42 Y
5 Melbourne Storm to win against Sydney Roosters while Home 0.760 0.794 1.26 Y
6 Cronulla Sharks to win against Newcastle Knights while Home 0.918 0.943 1.06 Y
7 St George Illawarra Dragons to win against Wests Tigers while Home 0.644 0.392 2.55 N
8 South Sydney Rabbitohs to win against Manly Sea Eagles while Home 0.570 0.472 2.12 N

NB Bookmaker odds (taken from www.Sportsbet.com.au) as at 21-July-2016

Stake recommendation/s

Recommended bets are those with a perceived probability of > ~0.66 and a positive expected return.

NB bye weeks are highly volatile and I expect the model will perform poorly this week

game_no tip_text perceived_prob bookie_odds expected_return recommend_stake
1 North Queensland Cowboys to win against Canterbury Bulldogs while Home 0.673 1.46 -0.018 N
2 Brisbane Broncos to win against Penrith Panthers while Home 0.719 1.30 -0.065 N
3 Canberra Raiders to win against New Zealand Warriors while Home 0.606 1.45 -0.122 N
4 Gold Coast Titans to win against Parramatta Eels while Home 0.505 1.42 -0.282 N
5 Melbourne Storm to win against Sydney Roosters while Home 0.760 1.26 -0.042 N
6 Cronulla Sharks to win against Newcastle Knights while Home 0.918 1.06 -0.027 N
7 St George Illawarra Dragons to win against Wests Tigers while Home 0.644 2.55 0.642 N
8 South Sydney Rabbitohs to win against Manly Sea Eagles while Home 0.570 2.12 0.208 N

Conclude

Lets see how the model performs this round!

NRL S2016 predictive results to date

Kane Maxwell

NRL S2016 predictive results to date

Summary

This post summarizes the models predictive performance vs the bookmakers predictive performance to date.

It additionally summarizes the staking performance to date.

This post will remain sticky and replaces the round by round results post.

Predictive Results

Given:

mTP = Models true positives

mFP = Models False positives

mPrec = Models precision (equivalent to accuracy in this case)

bTP = Bookmakers true positives

bFP = Bookmakers False positives

bPrec = Bookmakers precision (equivalent to accuracy in this case)

Results to date

Predictive model vs bookmaker precision to date
season mTP mFP bTP bFP mPrec bPrec
2016 126 73 136 58 0.626 0.694
Predictive model vs bookmaker precision by round
round_no season mTP mFP bTP bFP mPrec bPrec
30 30 2016 0 1 0 1 0.000 0.000
29 29 2016 2 0 1 1 1.000 0.500
28 28 2016 2 0 2 0 1.000 1.000
27 27 2016 3 1 3 1 0.750 0.750
26 26 2016 7 1 7 1 0.875 0.875
25 25 2016 5 3 5 3 0.625 0.625
24 24 2016 5 3 6 2 0.625 0.750
23 23 2016 3 5 4 3 0.375 0.571
22 22 2016 5 3 4 4 0.625 0.500
21 21 2016 4 3 6 0 0.571 1.000
20 20 2016 5 3 7 1 0.625 0.875
19 19 2016 5 1 5 1 0.833 0.833
18 18 2016 3 1 3 1 0.750 0.750
17 17 2016 5 3 6 2 0.625 0.750
16 16 2016 5 2 6 0 0.714 1.000
15 15 2016 1 3 4 0 0.250 1.000
14 14 2016 5 3 5 2 0.625 0.714
13 13 2016 5 2 4 3 0.714 0.571
12 12 2016 1 3 3 1 0.250 0.750
11 11 2016 6 2 5 3 0.750 0.625
10 10 2016 5 3 4 4 0.625 0.500
9 9 2016 3 5 4 4 0.375 0.500
8 8 2016 7 1 7 1 0.875 0.875
7 7 2016 5 3 5 2 0.625 0.714
6 6 2016 7 1 4 4 0.875 0.500
5 5 2016 3 5 6 2 0.375 0.750
4 4 2016 3 5 7 1 0.375 0.875
3 3 2016 4 3 2 5 0.571 0.286
2 2 2016 7 1 6 2 0.875 0.750
1 1 2016 5 3 5 3 0.625 0.625

NB these are results as posted - remodelling of round 4 and 5 considerably improved these results as explained in Results to date

The models average overall precision to date is 0.626 vs the bookmakers precision of 0.694.

Staking results

Initial bank = $2,200

Current bank = $2,220

Total profit/loss to date = +$20

Staking results to date = 28 out of 49 bets correct (57%)

  • Of the losing stakes, we received 4 manual adjustments (money back due to specials) and 4 bonus (free) bets. Of the 4 bonus bets 4 bets were wins

ROI (Total profit / Initial Bank) = +0.9% (+$20)

Over the season we have staked $3,185 for a return of $3,204 (+$20)

Detailed bet history

Table of staking results to date
BET.STATUS BET.DETAILS STAKE RETURN PROFIT BANK
Win Penrith Panthers v Nth Queensland Cowboys / Head To Head / Nth Queensland Cowboys @ 1.67 50 84 34 2234
Win New Zealand Warriors v Manly Sea Eagles / Head To Head / Manly Sea Eagles @ 2.85 0 92 126 2326
Win Penrith Panthers v Nth Queensland Cowboys / Head To Head / Nth Queensland Cowboys @ 1.67 60 100 166 2366
Lose Canterbury Bulldogs v New Zealand Warriors / Head To Head / Canterbury Bulldogs @ 1.90 114 0 52 2252
Win Wests Tigers v Melbourne Storm / Head To Head / Melbourne Storm @ 1.52 107 163 108 2308
Lose Sydney Roosters v Penrith Panthers / Head To Head / Sydney Roosters @ 2.45 110 0 -2 2198
Win Multibet (5 folds) 50 293 241 2441
Lose St George Illawarra Dragons v Sydney Roosters / Head To Head / Sydney Roosters @ 1.70 50 0 191 2391
Win Nth Queensland Cowboys v Parramatta Eels / Head To Head / Nth Queensland Cowboys @ 1.38 100 138 229 2429
Win Cronulla Sharks v Penrith Panthers / Head To Head / Cronulla Sharks @ 1.60 100 160 289 2489
Win Melbourne Storm v New Zealand Warriors / Head To Head / Melbourne Storm @ 1.67 100 167 356 2556
Manual Adjustment Manual Adjustment 0 50 406 2606
Lose South Sydney Rabbitohs v Wests Tigers / Head To Head / South Sydney Rabbitohs @ 1.45 100 0 306 2506
Lose Parramatta Eels v Canterbury Bulldogs / Head To Head / Canterbury Bulldogs @ 1.90 100 0 206 2406
Lose New Zealand Warriors v St George Illawarra Dragons / Head To Head / St George Illawarra Dragons @ 2.45 100 0 106 2306
Win Gold Coast Titans v Melbourne Storm / Head To Head / Melbourne Storm @ 1.50 100 150 156 2356
Lose Sydney Roosters v Newcastle Knights / Head To Head / Newcastle Knights @ 6.10 0 0 156 2356
Win Wests Tigers v Canterbury Bulldogs / Head To Head / Canterbury Bulldogs @ 1.28 100 128 184 2384
Win Newcastle Knights v Cronulla Sharks / Head To Head / Cronulla Sharks @ 1.18 100 118 202 2402
Win Manly Sea Eagles v Brisbane Broncos / Head To Head / Brisbane Broncos @ 1.19 100 119 221 2421
Lose Melbourne Storm v Nth Queensland Cowboys / Head To Head / Nth Queensland Cowboys @ 1.42 100 0 121 2321
Win St George Illawarra Dragons v Canberra Raiders / Head To Head / St George Illawarra Dragons @ 2.07 100 207 228 2428
Win Parramatta Eels v South Sydney Rabbitohs / Head To Head / South Sydney Rabbitohs @ 2.65 0 82 310 2510
Lose St George Illawarra Dragons v Nth Queensland Cowboys / Head To Head / Nth Queensland Cowboys @ 2.00 150 0 160 2360
Lose Brisbane Broncos v Wests Tigers / Head To Head / Brisbane Broncos @ 1.25 100 0 60 2260
Win Brisbane Broncos v Canberra Raiders / Head To Head / Brisbane Broncos @ 1.33 0 33 93 2293
Lose Brisbane Broncos v Canberra Raiders / Head To Head / Canberra Raiders @ 3.45 14 0 79 2279
Lose Cronulla Sharks v Canberra Raiders / Head To Head / Cronulla Sharks @ 1.42 50 0 29 2229
Lose Sydney Roosters v Nth Queensland Cowboys / Head To Head / Nth Queensland Cowboys @ 1.48 150 0 -121 2079
Win Manly Sea Eagles v Melbourne Storm / Head To Head / Melbourne Storm @ 1.36 50 68 -103 2097
Win Canberra Raiders v Parramatta Eels / Head To Head / Canberra Raiders @ 1.22 50 61 -92 2108
Lose South Sydney Rabbitohs v Cronulla Sharks / Head To Head / Cronulla Sharks @ 1.40 50 0 -142 2058
Lose Multibet (5 folds) 50 0 -192 2008
Manual Adjustment Manual Adjustment 0 50 -142 2058
Manual Adjustment Manual Adjustment 0 50 -92 2108
Lose Canterbury Bulldogs v Nth Queensland Cowboys / Head To Head / Canterbury Bulldogs @ 2.35 50 0 -142 2058
Win Gold Coast Titans v Penrith Panthers / Head To Head / Penrith Panthers @ 2.10 50 105 -87 2113
Lose Manly Sea Eagles v Canberra Raiders / Head To Head / Manly Sea Eagles @ 2.67 50 0 -137 2063
Win Cronulla Sharks v Sydney Roosters / Head To Head / Cronulla Sharks @ 1.58 50 79 -108 2092
Lose Melbourne Storm v Brisbane Broncos / Head To Head / Melbourne Storm @ 1.45 50 0 -158 2042
Win Parramatta Eels v St George Illawarra Dragons / Head To Head / Parramatta Eels @ 1.54 50 77 -131 2069
Manual Adjustment Manual Adjustment 0 50 -81 2119
Win Brisbane Broncos v Sydney Roosters / Head To Head / Brisbane Broncos @ 1.22 50 61 -70 2130
Lose Canterbury Bulldogs v South Sydney Rabbitohs / Head To Head / Canterbury Bulldogs @ 1.67 50 0 -120 2080
Win St George Illawarra Dragons v Newcastle Knights / Head To Head / St George Illawarra Dragons @ 1.35 50 68 -102 2098
Win Nth Queensland Cowboys v Gold Coast Titans / Head To Head / Nth Queensland Cowboys @ 1.33 50 66 -86 2114
Win Melbourne Storm v Cronulla Sharks / Head To Head / Melbourne Storm @ 1.47 50 74 -62 2138
Win Wests Tigers v Canberra Raiders / Head To Head / Canberra Raiders @ 1.67 50 84 -29 2171
Lose New Zealand Warriors v Parramatta Eels / Head To Head / New Zealand Warriors @ 1.50 50 0 -79 2121
Win Penrith Panthers v Manly Sea Eagles / Head To Head / Penrith Panthers @ 1.28 50 64 -65 2135
Lose Multibet (8 folds) 10 0 -75 2125
Win Multibet (5 folds) 20 98 3 2203
Win Brisbane Broncos v Gold Coast Titans / Head To Head / Brisbane Broncos @ 1.33 50 66 20 2220

For those who have contributed to the initial bank, the break down of your contribution and what you are currently entitled to is below. It’s pretty self explanatory with the main column being ‘entitlement’. This is how much you are entitled given your initial contribution. The gain (in dollars) is the amount of profit/loss you have currently made on your investment

Contributors investment entitlements

ID initial_bank current_bank cont_amount entitlement gain
1 2200 2219.8 1000 1009.0 9.0
2 2200 2219.8 500 504.5 4.5
3 2200 2219.8 200 201.8 1.8
4 2200 2219.8 100 100.9 0.9
5 2200 2219.8 100 100.9 0.9
6 2200 2219.8 200 201.8 1.8
7 2200 2219.8 100 100.9 0.9

NRL S2016 R19 Predictions and staking guide

Kane Maxwell

NRL S2016 R19 prediction and staking guide

Summary

Sorry for the belated tips! I had massive server issues yesterday which prevented me from running the model!.

We are finally over the Origin and expect to return to less volatile teams going forward from round 20 which means we should hopefully see some stake recommendations come through which we can act on!

The model (incorrectly) tipped St George to win yesterday likely owing to late change to team list/s which was not factored in (Josh Dugan and Benji Marshall were OUT after being named as IN on the initial (July-12) teams list).

This round, the Sharks to win represent the best ‘value’ bet

Here are the remaining tips for the round:

Predictions

game_no tip_text perceived_prob bookie_prob bookie_odds agree_with_bookie
1 St George Illawarra Dragons to win against Gold Coast Titans while Home 0.602 0.455 2.20 N
2 Manly Sea Eagles to win against New Zealand Warriors while Home 0.523 0.444 2.25 N
3 Brisbane Broncos to win against South Sydney Rabbitohs while Away 0.622 0.667 1.50 Y
4 Melbourne Storm to win against Newcastle Knights while Away 0.865 0.893 1.12 Y
5 Penrith Panthers to win against Parramatta Eels while Home 0.504 0.769 1.30 Y
6 Cronulla Sharks to win against Sydney Roosters while Away 0.677 0.654 1.53 Y

NB Bookmaker odds (taken from www.Sportsbet.com.au) as at 15-July-2016

Stake recommendation/s

Recommended bets are those with a perceived probability of > ~0.66 and a positive expected return.

NB bye weeks are highly volatile and I expect the model will perform poorly this week

game_no tip_text perceived_prob bookie_odds expected_return recommend_stake
1 St George Illawarra Dragons to win against Gold Coast Titans while Home 0.602 2.20 0.325 N
2 Manly Sea Eagles to win against New Zealand Warriors while Home 0.523 2.25 0.176 N
3 Brisbane Broncos to win against South Sydney Rabbitohs while Away 0.622 1.50 -0.067 N
4 Melbourne Storm to win against Newcastle Knights while Away 0.865 1.12 -0.031 N
5 Penrith Panthers to win against Parramatta Eels while Home 0.504 1.30 -0.344 N
6 Cronulla Sharks to win against Sydney Roosters while Away 0.677 1.53 0.036 Y

Conclude

Lets see how the model performs this round!