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NRL S2016 R14-17 Results

NRL S2016 R14-17 Results

Summary

Hi guys, I’ve been a bit slack on posting results each week, but unfortunately we havn’t had much action regarding betting due to origin matches and low probability picks.

In any-case below are the R14-17 results and overall predictive results to date.

Teh model performed poorly across the two bye weeks leading into origin (as expected) and has been primary reason for betting abstinence.

The model improved moving into round 16 and overall is sitting at ~60% since across all rounds.

Going forward I am probably going to just keep a sticky post updated with results to date as posting results by week is quite a bit to keep up with.

Predictive Results

Given:

mTP = Models true positives

mFP = Models False positives

mPrec = Models precision (equivalent to accuracy in this case)

bTP = Bookmakers true positives

bFP = Bookmakers False positives

bPrec = Bookmakers precision (equivalent to accuracy in this case)

Table of results

Predictive model vs bookmaker precision by round
round_no season mTP mFP bTP bFP mPrec bPrec
14 2016 5 3 5 2 0.625 0.714
15 2016 1 3 4 0 0.250 1.000
16 2016 5 2 6 0 0.714 1.000
17 2016 5 3 6 2 0.625 0.750
round_no game_no tip_text perceived_odds implied_odds result
14 1 Brisbane Broncos to win against Canberra Raiders while Home 1.35 1.32 Correctly picked
14 2 South Sydney Rabbitohs to win against Wests Tigers while Away 1.67 1.58 Incorreclty picked
14 3 New Zealand Warriors to win against Newcastle Knights while Away 1.54 1.32 Correctly picked
14 4 Parramatta Eels to win against Gold Coast Titans while Home 1.69 2.15 Correctly picked
14 5 Melbourne Storm to win against Sydney Roosters while Away 1.74 1.42 Correctly picked
14 6 Manly Sea Eagles to win against Penrith Panthers while Home 1.75 2.75 Incorreclty picked
14 7 Canterbury Bulldogs to win against St George Illawarra Dragons while Away 1.97 1.38 Correctly picked
14 8 North Queensland Cowboys to win against Cronulla Sharks while Away 1.93 1.92 Incorreclty picked
15 1 South Sydney Rabbitohs to win against Parramatta Eels while Home 1.92 2.00 Incorreclty picked
15 2 Melbourne Storm to win against St George Illawarra Dragons while Away 1.58 2.65 Incorreclty picked
15 3 Sydney Roosters to win against New Zealand Warriors while Away 1.87 2.60 Incorreclty picked
15 4 Gold Coast Titans to win against Manly Sea Eagles while Home 1.85 1.50 Correctly picked
16 1 Penrith Panthers to win against South Sydney Rabbitohs while Home 1.88 1.35 Correctly picked
16 2 St George Illawarra Dragons to win against Newcastle Knights while Away 1.36 1.38 Correctly picked
16 3 Cronulla Sharks to win against New Zealand Warriors while Home 1.34 1.35 Correctly picked
16 4 Brisbane Broncos to win against Canterbury Bulldogs while Away 1.75 1.92 Incorreclty picked
16 5 Gold Coast Titans to win against Canberra Raiders while Home 1.93 2.05 Incorreclty picked
16 6 Melbourne Storm to win against Wests Tigers while Home 1.29 1.45 Correctly picked
16 7 North Queensland Cowboys to win against Manly Sea Eagles while Home 1.24 1.15 Correctly picked
17 1 Canterbury Bulldogs to win against Sydney Roosters while Away 1.89 1.50 Correctly picked
17 2 Brisbane Broncos to win against Melbourne Storm while Home 1.88 1.60 Incorreclty picked
17 3 New Zealand Warriors to win against Gold Coast Titans while Home 1.81 1.36 Correctly picked
17 4 Penrith Panthers to win against Wests Tigers while Away 1.84 1.62 Incorreclty picked
17 5 Cronulla Sharks to win against Parramatta Eels while Home 1.40 1.32 Correctly picked
17 6 Canberra Raiders to win against Newcastle Knights while Home 1.21 1.10 Correctly picked
17 7 North Queensland Cowboys to win against South Sydney Rabbitohs while Away 1.43 1.35 Correctly picked
17 8 St George Illawarra Dragons to win against Manly Sea Eagles while Away 1.88 2.35 Incorreclty picked

Staking results

Initial bank = $2,200

Previous Round Bank = $2,263.03

Current bank = $2,335.00

Total round profit/loss = $71.97

Total profit/loss to date = $135.00

Round Staking results = 4 out of 5 bets correct

Staking results to date = 11 out of 19 bets correct

ROI (Total profit / Initial Bank) = 6.1%

Table of staking results to date
round game_no BET.STATUS BET.DETAILS STAKE RETURN PROFIT BANK
2 6 5 Win Penrith Panthers v Nth Queensland Cowboys / Head To Head / Nth Queensland Cowboys @ 1.67 50 84 34 2234
3 6 5 Win Penrith Panthers v Nth Queensland Cowboys / Head To Head / Nth Queensland Cowboys @ 1.67 60 100 74 2274
4 7 4 Lose Canterbury Bulldogs v New Zealand Warriors / Head To Head / Canterbury Bulldogs @ 1.90 114 0 -40 2160
5 7 7 Win Wests Tigers v Melbourne Storm / Head To Head / Melbourne Storm @ 1.52 107 163 15 2215
6 7 8 Lose Sydney Roosters v Penrith Panthers / Head To Head / Sydney Roosters @ 2.45 110 0 -95 2105
7 8 4 Win Nth Queensland Cowboys v Parramatta Eels / Head To Head / Nth Queensland Cowboys @ 1.38 100 138 -57 2143
8 8 5 Win Cronulla Sharks v Penrith Panthers / Head To Head / Cronulla Sharks @ 1.60 100 160 3 2203
9 8 7 Lose St George Illawarra Dragons v Sydney Roosters / Head To Head / Sydney Roosters @ 1.70 50 0 3 2203
10 8 8 Win Melbourne Storm v New Zealand Warriors / Head To Head / Melbourne Storm @ 1.67 100 167 70 2270
11 8 1,2,3,5,8 Win Brisbane Broncos / Canterbury Bulldogs / Canberra Raiders / Cronulla Sharks / Melbourne Storm @ 5.85 50 293 313 2513
12 9 1 Lose South Sydney Rabbitohs v Wests Tigers / Head To Head / South Sydney Rabbitohs @ 1.45 100 0 213 2413
13 9 2 Lose Parramatta Eels v Canterbury Bulldogs / Head To Head / Canterbury Bulldogs @ 1.90 100 0 113 2313
15 9 6 Lose New Zealand Warriors v St George Illawarra Dragons / Head To Head / St George Illawarra Dragons @ 2.45 100 0 13 2213
16 9 7 Win Gold Coast Titans v Melbourne Storm / Head To Head / Melbourne Storm @ 1.50 100 150 63 2263
17 10 1 Win St George Illawarra Dragons v Canberra Raiders / Head To Head / St George Illawarra Dragons @ 2.07 100 207 170 2370
19 10 4 Lose Melbourne Storm v Nth Queensland Cowboys / Head To Head / Nth Queensland Cowboys @ 1.42 100 0 70 2270
20 10 5 Win Manly Sea Eagles v Brisbane Broncos / Head To Head / Brisbane Broncos @ 1.19 100 119 89 2289
21 10 6 Win Newcastle Knights v Cronulla Sharks / Head To Head / Cronulla Sharks @ 1.18 100 118 107 2307
22 10 7 Win Wests Tigers v Canterbury Bulldogs / Head To Head / Canterbury Bulldogs @ 1.28 100 128 135 2335

For those who have contributed to the initial bank, the break down of your contribution and what you are currently entitled to is below. It’s pretty self explanatory with the main column being ‘entitlement’. This is how much you are entitled given your initial contribution. The gain (in dollars) is the amount of profit/loss you have currently made on your investment

Contributors investment entitlements

ID initial_bank current_bank cont_amount entitlement gain
1 2200 2335.03 1000 1061.377 61.377
2 2200 2335.03 500 530.689 30.689
3 2200 2335.03 200 212.275 12.275
4 2200 2335.03 100 106.138 6.138
5 2200 2335.03 100 106.138 6.138
6 2200 2335.03 200 212.275 12.275
7 2200 2335.03 100 106.138 6.138

Results to date

Predictive model vs bookmaker precision by round
round_no season mTP mFP bTP bFP mPrec bPrec
1 2016 5 3 5 3 0.625 0.625
2 2016 7 1 6 2 0.875 0.750
3 2016 4 3 2 5 0.571 0.286
4 2016 3 5 7 1 0.375 0.875
5 2016 3 5 6 2 0.375 0.750
6 2016 7 1 4 4 0.875 0.500
7 2016 5 3 5 2 0.625 0.714
8 2016 7 1 7 1 0.875 0.875
9 2016 3 5 4 4 0.375 0.500
10 2016 5 3 4 4 0.625 0.500
11 2016 6 2 5 3 0.750 0.625
12 2016 1 3 3 1 0.250 0.750
13 2016 5 2 4 3 0.714 0.571
14 2016 5 3 5 2 0.625 0.714
15 2016 1 3 4 0 0.250 1.000
16 2016 5 2 6 0 0.714 1.000
17 2016 5 3 6 2 0.625 0.750

NB these are results as posted - remodelling of round 4 and 5 considerably improved these results as explained in Results to date

The models average overall precision to date is 0.596 vs the bookmakers precision of 0.693.

Conclude

OK, lets hope for a good round 14!

NRL 2016 R18 Predictions and staking guide

NRL S2016 R18 prediction and staking guide

Summary

This week is another bye week and lead up to Origin game 3. The model has favored Sharks and Cowboys despite the loss of players to Origin. The market has jumped on this and is predicting these teams to loose by comparison. Since the model has performed poorly during bye weeks around origin I would not recommend using these predictions to stake on games.

This weeks predictions and recommended stakes below:

Predictions

game_no tip_text perceived_prob bookie_prob bookie_odds agree_with_bookie
1 Parramatta Eels to win against Sydney Roosters while Home 0.579 0.571 1.75 Y
2 Canterbury Bulldogs to win against Wests Tigers while Home 0.718 0.800 1.25 Y
3 Cronulla Sharks to win against Penrith Panthers while Away 0.678 0.417 2.40 N
4 North Queensland Cowboys to win against Canberra Raiders while Away 0.660 0.250 4.00 N

NB Bookmaker odds (taken from www.Sportsbet.com.au) as at 07-July-2016

Stake recommendation/s

Recommended bets are those with a perceived probability of > ~0.66 and a positive expected return.

NB bye weeks are highly volatile and I expect the model will perform poorly this week

game_no tip_text perceived_prob bookie_odds expected_return recommend_stake
1 Parramatta Eels to win against Sydney Roosters while Home 0.579 1.75 0.014 N
2 Canterbury Bulldogs to win against Wests Tigers while Home 0.718 1.25 -0.103 N
3 Cronulla Sharks to win against Penrith Panthers while Away 0.678 2.40 0.627 Y
4 North Queensland Cowboys to win against Canberra Raiders while Away 0.660 4.00 1.641 Y

Conclude

Lets see how the model performs this round!

NRL 2016 R17 Predictions and staking guide

NRL S2016 R17 prediction and staking guide

Summary

This weeks predictions and recommended stakes below:

Predictions

game_no tip_text perceived_prob bookie_prob bookie_odds agree_with_bookie
1 Canterbury Bulldogs to win against Sydney Roosters while Away 0.530 0.667 1.50 Y
2 Brisbane Broncos to win against Melbourne Storm while Home 0.532 0.625 1.60 Y
3 New Zealand Warriors to win against Gold Coast Titans while Home 0.551 0.735 1.36 Y
4 Penrith Panthers to win against Wests Tigers while Away 0.542 0.617 1.62 Y
5 Cronulla Sharks to win against Parramatta Eels while Home 0.714 0.758 1.32 Y
6 Canberra Raiders to win against Newcastle Knights while Home 0.825 0.909 1.10 Y
7 North Queensland Cowboys to win against South Sydney Rabbitohs while Away 0.700 0.741 1.35 Y
8 St George Illawarra Dragons to win against Manly Sea Eagles while Away 0.532 0.426 2.35 N

NB Bookmaker odds (taken from www.Sportsbet.com.au) as at 30-June-2016

Stake recommendation/s

Recommended bets are those with a perceived probability of > ~0.66 and a positive expected return.

game_no tip_text perceived_prob bookie_odds expected_return recommend_stake
1 Canterbury Bulldogs to win against Sydney Roosters while Away 0.530 1.50 -0.205 N
2 Brisbane Broncos to win against Melbourne Storm while Home 0.532 1.60 -0.149 N
3 New Zealand Warriors to win against Gold Coast Titans while Home 0.551 1.36 -0.250 N
4 Penrith Panthers to win against Wests Tigers while Away 0.542 1.62 -0.121 N
5 Cronulla Sharks to win against Parramatta Eels while Home 0.714 1.32 -0.057 N
6 Canberra Raiders to win against Newcastle Knights while Home 0.825 1.10 -0.092 N
7 North Queensland Cowboys to win against South Sydney Rabbitohs while Away 0.700 1.35 -0.055 N
8 St George Illawarra Dragons to win against Manly Sea Eagles while Away 0.532 2.35 0.251 N

Conclude

Lets see how the model performs this round!

NRL S2016 R16 Predictions and staking guide

NRL S2016 R15 prediction and staking guide

Summary

The majority of games this week are in line with the bookmakers and a few games are tipped as being good value bets.

I need to have a hard look at the team lists this week (as some players will be resting up after origin) to determine if I will take action on the recommended stakes. I’ll keep you posted:

Predictions

game_no tip_text perceived_prob bookie_prob bookie_odds agree_with_bookie
1 Penrith Panthers to win against South Sydney Rabbitohs while Home 0.532 0.741 1.35 Y
2 St George Illawarra Dragons to win against Newcastle Knights while Away 0.736 0.725 1.38 Y
3 Cronulla Sharks to win against New Zealand Warriors while Home 0.745 0.741 1.35 Y
4 Brisbane Broncos to win against Canterbury Bulldogs while Away 0.570 0.521 1.92 Y
5 Gold Coast Titans to win against Canberra Raiders while Home 0.518 0.488 2.05 N
6 Melbourne Storm to win against Wests Tigers while Home 0.778 0.690 1.45 Y
7 North Queensland Cowboys to win against Manly Sea Eagles while Home 0.804 0.870 1.15 Y

NB Bookmaker odds (taken from www.Sportsbet.com.au) as at 23-June-2016

Stake recommendation/s

Recommended bets are those with a perceived probability of > ~0.66 and a positive expected return.

game_no tip_text perceived_prob bookie_odds expected_return recommend_stake
1 Penrith Panthers to win against South Sydney Rabbitohs while Home 0.532 1.35 -0.281 N
2 St George Illawarra Dragons to win against Newcastle Knights while Away 0.736 1.38 0.016 Y
3 Cronulla Sharks to win against New Zealand Warriors while Home 0.745 1.35 0.006 Y
4 Brisbane Broncos to win against Canterbury Bulldogs while Away 0.570 1.92 0.095 N
5 Gold Coast Titans to win against Canberra Raiders while Home 0.518 2.05 0.062 N
6 Melbourne Storm to win against Wests Tigers while Home 0.778 1.45 0.128 Y
7 North Queensland Cowboys to win against Manly Sea Eagles while Home 0.804 1.15 -0.075 N

Conclude

Lets see how the model performs this round!

Hedging with ‘free’ bets

Hedging with free bets

Headline

Ever wondered how you should spend that free/bonus bet your bookmaker has given you? Should you place it on a long odds team, on the favorite, or can you use it to hedge your bets?

Find out below!

Introduction

From time to time, a bookmaker may offer you a ‘free’ (‘bonus’) bet under some promotional offer. So if you have ‘generous’ bookmaker, what do you do with that free bet? Most of us might just stick it on a long shot in the hope of a big payout, or maybe we will just use it as part of our normal staking strategy or (if you’re boring) you might use it to hedge your bet/s to gaurentee a profit. I was actually recently given a free bet, and I had an opportunity to use it to guarantee a profit on a recent (round 14) NRL match. Since this might be a relatively uncommon strategy among casual punters, I thought I might share how it works!

Hedging with a free bet

As I said in the introduction I recently had an opportunity to hedge on a NRL match to garetuentee myself a profit on the outcome. I’ll briefly explain the scenario.

I was given a free bet ($100) by a bookmaker under the condition that:

  • I used the bet before 01-July-2016 & that it could only be used on a single match (IE I had to place the entire $100 amount on the outcome of an event)

I can’t quite figure out why I was given a free bet, but from time to time I presume as a ‘new’ punter in the system they give me free bets to encourage me to bet more often. I’m sure its all part of the bookmakers sophisticated customer profiling etc but I have not ‘cracked’ the code on when I might receive a free bet. It would be an interesting exercise to get a few peoples betting history (including when free bets were offered) to see if I can predict what is driving free bet offers.. but that’s for another time (PS if anyone wants to share their bet history/profile with me let me know!). Anyway, I diverge.

So now that I had my free bet, what was I going to do with it? Well the temptation is just to go chuck it on a really long odds match and hope it pays off (after all its a ‘free’ throw away bet right?). And trust me I was actually tempted just to do this. However I thought for moment, “surely I can be a little smarter than that” and ultimately chose to use to hedge the free bet to gaurentee myself a small profit. This isn’t a very romantic way to bet (I would prefer to tell the story about the time I used my free bet to back a horse at 1000:1 and landed a massive pay day), but at least I made a profit..

I have already previously discussed hedging in detail so I wont dwell on it too much, suffice to say that its a betting technique which involves (in our case) placing bets on both teams to guarantee a profit. Opportunities enabling you to do this arise when the odds of your initial stake favorably change before a match starts or during live play. However an opportunity to hedge also exists if you have a ‘free’ bet.

How it works

Here’s how it works (using my real world example):

Taking a look at the odds of matches for round 14, I can calculate the potential gaurenteed profit I will make under a few assumptions.

My aim is to match the profit I would get if I staked the free bet on my preferred team. For example if I put the $100 free bet on a team at 1.40 odds, my potential profit is $40. So I want to determine what amount of money I need to put on the opposing team to match this profit. Then I want to determine if my overall profit is positive. If it is then its a good match to hedge on.

So lets take a look at how this works on the actual match I staked on.

I chose to use my $100 free bet to stake on the Broncos playing at home to beat Canberra in round 14.

The Broncos were at odds of 1.33 while Canberra were at odds of 3.45

If I use the $100 free bet to stake on Broncos my potential profit is $33 ($100*1.33 - $100).

If I want to ‘match’ this profit by betting on Canberra I would need to put $13.75 on Canberra to win. ($13.47*3.45 - $13.47 = $33)

So now; given I have placed a $100 (free) bet on Broncos and 13.75 bet on Canberra then I am gaurenteed to profit $19.53. Yup that’s right, no matter who wins I get $19.53 profit. Now I don’t even have to watch the game and I can go off and buy that ‘special’ something I’ve always wanted….

But in all seriousness at least its a profit, and I only had to outlay $13.47 to gaurentee it.

You can double check the math if you like:

I put $13.47 on Canberra to win @ 3.40 (total actual outlay $13.47).

I put $100 (free bet) on Broncos to win @ 1.33 (total actual outlay = $0.00 because its a free bet)

If Broncos win I get (1.33*100-100)-$13.47 = $19.53

If Canberra wins I get (3.4*13.47)-$13.47 = $19.53

So there you go! As demonstrated you can use that free bet to guarantee yourself a profit (I actually did)

Math

Here’s the step by step guide (with formula) to determine how much to stake on the opposing team, and how much overall profit you will make using this strategy. You can use the amount of overall profit to determine which match is the best value to hedge on

  1. Determine the:
  • free bet amount (s1)

  • odds of the team which free stake will be used (o1)

  • odds of the opposing team (o2)

  1. Calculate the expected profit (p) from the free bet stake
  • p = s1*o1 - s1
  1. Calculate the amount of money needed to bet on the opposing team in order to match the expected profit from the free bet stake (s2)
  • s2 = p/(o2-1)
  1. Calculate the total expected profit (tp) from the hedge betting
  • tp = p-s2
  1. Use the hedging strategy to stake on the game with the highest total profit (tp).

Using my real world example:

s1 = $100

o1 = 1.33 (Odds on Broncos)

o2 = 3.4 (odds on Canberra)

p= $100*1.33-100 = $33

s2 = 33/(3.45-1) = $13.47

tp = $33- $13.47 = $19.53

This was the highest tp of all matches in round 14 (at the time of betting) so was my preferred hedging stake.

If we wanted to quickly look at the best free bet hedging opportunities we can tabulate and graph to get a bit of an idea of how this works.

Assuming a $100 free bet and a completely fair market free of vig/overround; lets tabulate and plot the total potential profit of odds from 1.0 through to 2.0:

o1 o2 s1 p s2 tp
1.00 Inf 100 0 0.00 0.00
1.05 21.00 100 5 0.25 4.75
1.10 11.00 100 10 1.00 9.00
1.15 7.67 100 15 2.25 12.75
1.20 6.00 100 20 4.00 16.00
1.25 5.00 100 25 6.25 18.75
1.30 4.33 100 30 9.00 21.00
1.35 3.86 100 35 12.25 22.75
1.40 3.50 100 40 16.00 24.00
1.45 3.22 100 45 20.25 24.75
1.50 3.00 100 50 25.00 25.00
1.55 2.82 100 55 30.25 24.75
1.60 2.67 100 60 36.00 24.00
1.65 2.54 100 65 42.25 22.75
1.70 2.43 100 70 49.00 21.00
1.75 2.33 100 75 56.25 18.75
1.80 2.25 100 80 64.00 16.00
1.85 2.18 100 85 72.25 12.75
1.90 2.11 100 90 81.00 9.00
1.95 2.05 100 95 90.25 4.75
2.00 2.00 100 100 100.00 0.00

We observe that in a fair market the maximum profit of $25 is achieved when you put a $100 free bet on odds of 1.5 and $25 on the opposing team at odds of 3.00. Profit declines from this maximum as you move lower towards 1.2 or higher towards 2.0. At odds of 2.00 no profit is achieved. While this is the theoretical maximum in a fair market, the reality is that the ‘best’ value hedging opportunity will vary based on the vig/overround offered for the match, and the vig/overround bias. To refresh your memory a bookmakers market is never fair as the probabilities they offer on each team will add up to over 1.00.

For example, in a fair market assuming even probability (50%) that each team will win, then the odds offered should be 2.00 on each team.

In the bookmakers market when the odds are ‘even’ instead of being set at 2.00 you will observe that they might be at 1.92.

For example, the opening odds for the round 14 match up between the Sharks and Cowboys were 1.92 each. This is equivalent to an implied chance of 52% chance that each team will win. This adds up to 104% so the bookmaker has a 4% overround.

So unfortunately you can’t use 1.50 exclusively, you will need to do the calculation to determine which match has the highest profit potential like I did.

Lets take the odds of the round 14 matches* and see how the profit is affected by the vig/overround. We will also order the odds lowest to highest.

NB these odds are slightly different to the odds determined at the time of my stake - these are just the latest odds I had in my database

favorite favorite.odds non.favorite non.favorite.odds vig overround s1 p s2 tp
Brisbane Broncos 1.32 Canberra Raiders 3.50 0.041 0.043 100 32 12.800 19.200
New Zealand Warriors 1.32 Newcastle Knights 3.50 0.041 0.043 100 32 12.800 19.200
Canterbury Bulldogs 1.38 St George Illawarra Dragons 3.15 0.040 0.042 100 38 17.674 20.326
Melbourne Storm 1.42 Sydney Roosters 2.95 0.041 0.043 100 42 21.538 20.462
Penrith Panthers 1.47 Manly Sea Eagles 2.75 0.042 0.044 100 47 26.857 20.143
South Sydney Rabbitohs 1.58 Wests Tigers 2.45 0.039 0.041 100 58 40.000 18.000
Gold Coast Titans 1.73 Parramatta Eels 2.15 0.041 0.043 100 73 63.478 9.522
Cronulla Sharks 1.92 North Queensland Cowboys 1.92 0.040 0.042 100 92 100.000 -8.000

We can see that odds of 1.5 no longer represents the maximum profit but rather, maximum profit is achieved at odds of ~1.42. You can also see that the vig/overround does actually vary slightly between matches which does play into the potential profit. So the bottom line is that to maximize your profit you need to make sure that you do your math in the market you want to apply your hedging stake in.

Finally, although I said that this hedging strategy guarantees you a profit… there is a slight caveat. In the event of a draw I would have lost my free bet and also lost my $13.47…. however draws are a relatively rare beast..

Also as a final disclaimer in reality I had to put $14 on Canberra to win, as I wasnt able to put fractional bets on.. so my actual profit was very slightly lower

NRL S2016 R15 Predictions and Staking Guide

NRL S2016 R15 prediction and staking guide

Summary

There are only four games this week due to byes leading up to State of Origin game 2 (kick-off 22-June). There are three games which disagree with the bookmaker this week; however the majority of win predictions are modest (<55% chance of win).

The exception is Storm vs Dragons - the bookmaker/market has Dragons as strong favorites (~1.52 back odds) whereas the model has Storm as moderate-strong favorites (63% chance of winning (equivalent to 1.58 odds)). The reason Dragons are strong favorites according to the market is that Storm have two star players out this week (Cameron Smith and Cooper Cronk are OUT due to origin (playing for Qld)). Although the model attempts to accommodate for team dynamic changes, the model obviously has less weight on this variable (players) than the market.

The other (strong) model vs bookmaker disagreement is Roosters vs Warriors. The model favors Roosters, despite them being down four players this week (Abraham Papalii, Aidan Guerra,Blake Ferguson & Eloni Vunakece).

As stated in my last round-up post, I am not completely confident that the model is accounting for large team changes especially around origin, so I am choosing to abstain from bets this round (the model hasn’t indicated any good value bets this round in any case)

As a point of interest, below is the line up for Origin game 2:

Line up for Origin (Source)

QLD:

  1. Darius Boyd, 2. Corey Oates, 3. Greg Inglis, 4. Justin O’Neill, 5. Dane Gagai, 6. Johnathan Thurston, 7. Cooper Cronk, 8. Matt Scott, 9. Cameron Smith (c), 10. Josh McGuire, 11. Matt Gillett, 12. Sam Thaiday, 13. Corey Parker

Interchange: 14. Michael Morgan, 15. Jacob Lillyman, 16. Aidan Guerra, 17. Josh Papalii, 18th man. Ethan Lowe

NSW

  1. Matt Moylan, 2. Blake Ferguson, 3. Michael Jennings, 4. Josh Morris, 5. Josh Mansour, 6. James Maloney, 7. Adam Reynolds, 8. Aaron Woods, 9. Robbie Farah, 10. James Tamou, 15. Greg Bird, 12. Josh Jackson, 13. Paul Gallen

Interchange: 14. Dylan Walker, 18. Tyson Frizell, 16. David Klemmer, 17. Andrew Fifita

Now lets take a look at this weeks predictions in detail:

Predictions

game_no tip_text perceived_prob bookie_prob bookie_odds agree_with_bookie
1 South Sydney Rabbitohs to win against Parramatta Eels while Home 0.521 0.500 2.00 N
2 Melbourne Storm to win against St George Illawarra Dragons while Away 0.631 0.377 2.65 N
3 Sydney Roosters to win against New Zealand Warriors while Away 0.534 0.385 2.60 N
4 Gold Coast Titans to win against Manly Sea Eagles while Home 0.540 0.667 1.50 Y

NB Bookmaker odds (taken from www.Sportsbet.com.au) as at 14-June-2016

Stake recommendation/s

Recommended bets are those with a perceived probability of > ~0.66 and a positive expected return.

game_no tip_text perceived_prob bookie_odds expected_return recommend_stake
1 South Sydney Rabbitohs to win against Parramatta Eels while Home 0.521 2.00 0.042 N
2 Melbourne Storm to win against St George Illawarra Dragons while Away 0.631 2.65 0.672 N
3 Sydney Roosters to win against New Zealand Warriors while Away 0.534 2.60 0.389 N
4 Gold Coast Titans to win against Manly Sea Eagles while Home 0.540 1.50 -0.191 N

Conclude

Lets see how the model performs this round!

NRL S2016 R12-13 Results

NRL S2016 R12-13 Results

Summary

Since there were only 4 games in round 12, I thought I would post the results of round 12 & 13 together to save myself some time.

Round 12 was a very poor predictive round (1 out of 4 correct) owing to the models inability to properly account for team changes due to representative matches (State of Origin). However; we did better than the bookmaker (5 out of 7) in round 13 after I put a bit more weight on the team dynamic factor/s to account for player absences due to Origin.

Although retrospectively we know the model did well in round 13, at the time I chose to abstain from betting because some (key) team players were being rested up after Origin.

OK so lets take a detailed look at results for round 12-13 and the results to date:

Predictive Results

Given:

mTP = Models true positives

mFP = Models False positives

mPrec = Models precision (equivalent to accuracy in this case)

bTP = Bookmakers true positives

bFP = Bookmakers False positives

bPrec = Bookmakers precision (equivalent to accuracy in this case)

Table of results

Predictive model vs bookmaker precision by round
round_no season mTP mFP bTP bFP mPrec bPrec
12 2016 1 3 3 1 0.250 0.750
13 2016 5 2 4 3 0.714 0.571
round_no game_no tip_text perceived_odds implied_odds result
12 1 Brisbane Broncos to win against Wests Tigers while Home 1.12 1.25 Incorreclty picked
12 2 North Queensland Cowboys to win against St George Illawarra Dragons while Away 1.37 2.00 Incorreclty picked
12 3 Canterbury Bulldogs to win against Canberra Raiders while Away 1.64 2.25 Incorreclty picked
12 4 Parramatta Eels to win against Newcastle Knights while Away 1.42 1.35 Correctly picked
13 1 Canberra Raiders to win against Manly Sea Eagles while Home 1.66 1.56 Correctly picked
13 2 Brisbane Broncos to win against New Zealand Warriors while Away 1.41 1.60 Incorreclty picked
13 3 North Queensland Cowboys to win against Newcastle Knights while Home 1.11 1.06 Correctly picked
13 4 Melbourne Storm to win against Penrith Panthers while Home 1.38 1.57 Correctly picked
13 5 Sydney Roosters to win against Wests Tigers while Home 1.36 1.41 Correctly picked
13 6 South Sydney Rabbitohs to win against Gold Coast Titans while Home 1.60 1.57 Incorreclty picked
13 7 Cronulla Sharks to win against Canterbury Bulldogs while Away 1.88 1.91 Correctly picked

Staking results

Initial bank = $2,200

Previous Round Bank = $2,263.03

Current bank = $2,335.00

Total round profit/loss = $71.97

Total profit/loss to date = $135.00

Round Staking results = 4 out of 5 bets correct

Staking results to date = 11 out of 19 bets correct

ROI (Total profit / Initial Bank) = 6.1%

Table of staking results to date
round game_no BET.STATUS BET.DETAILS STAKE RETURN PROFIT BANK
2 6 5 Win Penrith Panthers v Nth Queensland Cowboys / Head To Head / Nth Queensland Cowboys @ 1.67 50 84 34 2234
3 6 5 Win Penrith Panthers v Nth Queensland Cowboys / Head To Head / Nth Queensland Cowboys @ 1.67 60 100 74 2274
4 7 4 Lose Canterbury Bulldogs v New Zealand Warriors / Head To Head / Canterbury Bulldogs @ 1.90 114 0 -40 2160
5 7 7 Win Wests Tigers v Melbourne Storm / Head To Head / Melbourne Storm @ 1.52 107 163 15 2215
6 7 8 Lose Sydney Roosters v Penrith Panthers / Head To Head / Sydney Roosters @ 2.45 110 0 -95 2105
7 8 4 Win Nth Queensland Cowboys v Parramatta Eels / Head To Head / Nth Queensland Cowboys @ 1.38 100 138 -57 2143
8 8 5 Win Cronulla Sharks v Penrith Panthers / Head To Head / Cronulla Sharks @ 1.60 100 160 3 2203
9 8 7 Lose St George Illawarra Dragons v Sydney Roosters / Head To Head / Sydney Roosters @ 1.70 50 0 3 2203
10 8 8 Win Melbourne Storm v New Zealand Warriors / Head To Head / Melbourne Storm @ 1.67 100 167 70 2270
11 8 1,2,3,5,8 Win Brisbane Broncos / Canterbury Bulldogs / Canberra Raiders / Cronulla Sharks / Melbourne Storm @ 5.85 50 293 313 2513
12 9 1 Lose South Sydney Rabbitohs v Wests Tigers / Head To Head / South Sydney Rabbitohs @ 1.45 100 0 213 2413
13 9 2 Lose Parramatta Eels v Canterbury Bulldogs / Head To Head / Canterbury Bulldogs @ 1.90 100 0 113 2313
15 9 6 Lose New Zealand Warriors v St George Illawarra Dragons / Head To Head / St George Illawarra Dragons @ 2.45 100 0 13 2213
16 9 7 Win Gold Coast Titans v Melbourne Storm / Head To Head / Melbourne Storm @ 1.50 100 150 63 2263
17 10 1 Win St George Illawarra Dragons v Canberra Raiders / Head To Head / St George Illawarra Dragons @ 2.07 100 207 170 2370
19 10 4 Lose Melbourne Storm v Nth Queensland Cowboys / Head To Head / Nth Queensland Cowboys @ 1.42 100 0 70 2270
20 10 5 Win Manly Sea Eagles v Brisbane Broncos / Head To Head / Brisbane Broncos @ 1.19 100 119 89 2289
21 10 6 Win Newcastle Knights v Cronulla Sharks / Head To Head / Cronulla Sharks @ 1.18 100 118 107 2307
22 10 7 Win Wests Tigers v Canterbury Bulldogs / Head To Head / Canterbury Bulldogs @ 1.28 100 128 135 2335

For those who have contributed to the initial bank, the break down of your contribution and what you are currently entitled to is below. It’s pretty self explanatory with the main column being ‘entitlement’. This is how much you are entitled given your initial contribution. The gain (in dollars) is the amount of profit/loss you have currently made on your investment

Contributors investment entitlements

ID initial_bank current_bank cont_amount entitlement gain
1 2200 2335.03 1000 1061.377 61.377
2 2200 2335.03 500 530.689 30.689
3 2200 2335.03 200 212.275 12.275
4 2200 2335.03 100 106.138 6.138
5 2200 2335.03 100 106.138 6.138
6 2200 2335.03 200 212.275 12.275
7 2200 2335.03 100 106.138 6.138

Results to date

Predictive model vs bookmaker precision by round
round_no season mTP mFP bTP bFP mPrec bPrec
1 2016 5 3 5 3 0.625 0.625
2 2016 7 1 6 2 0.875 0.750
3 2016 4 3 2 5 0.571 0.286
4 2016 3 5 7 1 0.375 0.875
5 2016 3 5 6 2 0.375 0.750
6 2016 7 1 4 4 0.875 0.500
7 2016 5 3 5 2 0.625 0.714
8 2016 7 1 7 1 0.875 0.875
9 2016 3 5 4 4 0.375 0.500
10 2016 5 3 4 4 0.625 0.500
11 2016 6 2 5 3 0.750 0.625
12 2016 1 3 3 1 0.250 0.750
13 2016 5 2 4 3 0.714 0.571

NB these are results as posted - remodelling of round 4 and 5 considerably improved these results as explained in Results to date

The models average overall precision to date is 0.609 vs the bookmakers precision of 0.64.

Conclude

OK, lets hope for a good round 14!

NRL S2016 R14 predictions and staking guide

NRL S2016 R14 prediction and staking guide

Summary

This week (most) of the teams are back at full strength after player layups due to Origin. Predictions this week are mostly in alignment with the bookmaker/market with the exception of:

  • Eels v Titans. The model indicates a 59% chance that Eels will win vs the bookmakers 46%

and

  • Eagles vs Penrith. The model indicates a 57% chance that Eels will win vs the bookmakers 36%

The largest discrepancy between the model and bookmaker is in the Eagles penrith game.

All games which are in agreement with the bookmaker have negative expected return (indicating poor value bets) and the two games above which are in disagreement with the bookmakers do not meet our probability threshold for wagers (0.66), so again no bets this week!

Predictions

game_no tip_text perceived_prob bookie_prob bookie_odds agree_with_bookie
1 Brisbane Broncos to win against Canberra Raiders while Home 0.742 0.758 1.32 Y
2 South Sydney Rabbitohs to win against Wests Tigers while Away 0.600 0.633 1.58 Y
3 New Zealand Warriors to win against Newcastle Knights while Away 0.650 0.758 1.32 Y
4 Parramatta Eels to win against Gold Coast Titans while Home 0.590 0.465 2.15 N
5 Melbourne Storm to win against Sydney Roosters while Away 0.575 0.704 1.42 Y
6 Manly Sea Eagles to win against Penrith Panthers while Home 0.571 0.364 2.75 N
7 Canterbury Bulldogs to win against St George Illawarra Dragons while Away 0.507 0.725 1.38 Y
8 North Queensland Cowboys to win against Cronulla Sharks while Away 0.517 0.521 1.92 Y

NB Bookmaker odds (taken from www.Sportsbet.com.au) as at 09-June-2016

Stake recommendation/s

Recommended bets are those with a perceived probability of > ~0.66 and a positive expected return.

game_no tip_text perceived_prob bookie_odds expected_return recommend_stake
1 Brisbane Broncos to win against Canberra Raiders while Home 0.742 1.32 -0.020 N
2 South Sydney Rabbitohs to win against Wests Tigers while Away 0.600 1.58 -0.052 N
3 New Zealand Warriors to win against Newcastle Knights while Away 0.650 1.32 -0.143 N
4 Parramatta Eels to win against Gold Coast Titans while Home 0.590 2.15 0.269 N
5 Melbourne Storm to win against Sydney Roosters while Away 0.575 1.42 -0.184 N
6 Manly Sea Eagles to win against Penrith Panthers while Home 0.571 2.75 0.570 N
7 Canterbury Bulldogs to win against St George Illawarra Dragons while Away 0.507 1.38 -0.300 N
8 North Queensland Cowboys to win against Cronulla Sharks while Away 0.517 1.92 -0.007 N

Conclude

Lets see how the model performs this round!

NRL S2016 R13 Predictions and Staking guide

NRL S2016 R13 prediction and staking guide

Summary

NB!! There is currently high volatility in team player lists due to State of Origin matches. During this period there is a self imposed betting ban. Last round was an extremely poor predictive and staking round (1/4 predictive accuracy and 2 staking loss’) indicating the model is not sufficiently catering for team changes. While I have tweaked some model parameters in attempt to mitigate this, I don’t have high confidence team dynamic is accurately reflected in the model.

This round all tips are (currently) in line with bookmaker predictions. However, there is an expectation of low predictive performance due to change in team and match dynamics. Although I wont be staking until team volatility has stabilized, I have supplied preferred bets based on my usual parameters and assuming normal circumstances. Two bets are identified as good value (Storm v Panthers & Roosters v Tigers).

Predictions

game_no tip_text perceived_prob bookie_prob bookie_odds agree_with_bookie
1 Canberra Raiders to win against Manly Sea Eagles while Home 0.603 0.641 1.56 Y
2 Brisbane Broncos to win against New Zealand Warriors while Away 0.708 0.625 1.60 Y
3 North Queensland Cowboys to win against Newcastle Knights while Home 0.897 0.943 1.06 Y
4 Melbourne Storm to win against Penrith Panthers while Home 0.726 0.637 1.57 Y
5 Sydney Roosters to win against Wests Tigers while Home 0.738 0.709 1.41 Y
6 South Sydney Rabbitohs to win against Gold Coast Titans while Home 0.624 0.637 1.57 Y
7 Cronulla Sharks to win against Canterbury Bulldogs while Away 0.531 0.524 1.91 Y

NB Bookmaker odds (taken from www.Sportsbet.com.au) as at 31-May-2016

Stake recommendation/s

Recommended bets are those with a perceived probability of > ~0.66 and a positive expected return.

game_no tip_text perceived_prob bookie_odds expected_return recommend_stake
1 Canberra Raiders to win against Manly Sea Eagles while Home 0.603 1.56 -0.059 N
2 Brisbane Broncos to win against New Zealand Warriors while Away 0.708 1.60 0.133 Y
3 North Queensland Cowboys to win against Newcastle Knights while Home 0.897 1.06 -0.049 N
4 Melbourne Storm to win against Penrith Panthers while Home 0.726 1.57 0.140 Y
5 Sydney Roosters to win against Wests Tigers while Home 0.738 1.41 0.040 Y
6 South Sydney Rabbitohs to win against Gold Coast Titans while Home 0.624 1.57 -0.021 N
7 Cronulla Sharks to win against Canterbury Bulldogs while Away 0.531 1.91 0.014 N

Conclude

Lets see how the model performs this round!

NRL S2016 R12 Predictions and Staking guide

NRL S2016 R12 predictions and staking guide

Summary

There are only four matches this round in the lead up to origin next week.

This week the model has identified two matches as good value bets (Broncos to win against Tigers and Cowboys to win against St George). Additionally the model is in disagreement with the bookmaker on two games (Cowboys vs St George and Bulldogs vs Canberra). I am aware that Cowboys and Broncos are missing a lot of (key) players this round due to pending origin matches, however the model still thinks they have a strong chance of winning.

Even though Broncos are at short odds (1.25) the model indicates that we still have positive expected return (our probability that Broncos will win is higher than the probability of the offered odds)

For St George vs Cowboys, currently St George are favorites to win over the Cowboys, however the model predicts the Cowboys as having >70% of winning. This is the best value bet meeting our staking probability threshold (>66%)

Another ‘good’ value bet with high expected return i Bulldogs vs Canberra, however this match doesn’t quite meet our staking probability requirements.

Predictions

game_no tip_text perceived_prob bookie_prob bookie_odds agree_with_bookie
1 Brisbane Broncos to win against Wests Tigers while Home 0.897 0.800 1.25 Y
2 North Queensland Cowboys to win against St George Illawarra Dragons while Away 0.730 0.500 2.00 N
3 Canterbury Bulldogs to win against Canberra Raiders while Away 0.610 0.444 2.25 N
4 Parramatta Eels to win against Newcastle Knights while Away 0.703 0.741 1.35 Y

NB Bookmaker odds (taken from www.Sportsbet.com.au) as at 24-May-2016

Stake recommendation/s

Recommended bets are those with a perceived probability of > ~0.66 and a positive expected return.

game_no tip_text perceived_prob bookie_odds expected_return recommend_stake
1 Brisbane Broncos to win against Wests Tigers while Home 0.897 1.25 0.121 Y
2 North Queensland Cowboys to win against St George Illawarra Dragons while Away 0.730 2.00 0.460 Y
3 Canterbury Bulldogs to win against Canberra Raiders while Away 0.610 2.25 0.372 N
4 Parramatta Eels to win against Newcastle Knights while Away 0.703 1.35 -0.051 N

Conclude

Lets hope we have a good round. Good luck contributors!