The NRL experiment is a personal challenge to:
- use machine learning algorithm/s (predictive models) to predict the outcome of every match of the 2016 NRL season with an accuracy of >0.5
- stake on 2016 matches using the optimal staking strategy in conjunction with predictions made by the machine learning algorithm/s
- make a profit over the 2016 season
- provide best practice guidance on machine learning for sports-betting
In order to make this challenge transparent, and to enable me to track progress, over the 2016 season I will be publishing the predicted outcome (in accordance to the predictive model) of every match before each round/game. In addition I will be providing details such as the perceived probability and odds of a team winning and comparing this against the bookmakers odds. I will also be tracking the progress of every prediction and will summarise in ’roundup’ each week. Additionally I will be staking on each game in accordance with a specific staking strategy (which I will also publish) with the aim to make a season profit. Predicted outcomes, results and staking plans will all be located under the NRL Experiment posts category.
In order to undertake this challenge a lot of ground work had to be laid. The details behind the groundwork and more specifically, the theoretical performance of the machine learning algorithms can be found in ‘NRL Predictive modelling – deep dive’ and ‘Staking Strategy’, however the very high-level results of the work show that:
“the best machine learning algorithms can predict the outcome of NRL matches with 54-60% accuracy across a season”
and that:
“by using an appropriate staking strategy you could expect a return on investment of 15-20%”
It is on that basis I have chosen to proceed with the challenge and see if we can put theory into practice.
Let the experiment begin!!