Summary

No bets were laid during the finals round due to low confidence in historic model prediction/s, however I posthumously present the models predictions for the 2016 finals season.

Round 27 = Quarter-finals

Round 28 = Semi-finals

Round 29 = Preliminary finals

Round 30 = Grand final

The model recommended bets on Canberra to beat Penrith in the Semi final, and Sharks to beat Cowboys (in the preliminary final). Both bets would have returned wins.

Summary

Ok! This is the last round of the regular season!!

This week all predictions are in line with the bookmaker and four matches have been identified as good value.

Specifically, value bets are:

• Melbourne Storm to win against Cronulla Sharks while Home (to take out the minor premiership)

• Canterbury Bulldogs to win against South Sydney Rabbitohs while Home

• North Queensland Cowboys to win against Gold Coast Titans while Home

• St George Illawarra Dragons to win against Newcastle Knights while Home

Also note that I have a fair few bets which I predict a win at >66% or close to 66% and due to sportsbet ongoing promotion of 8 point margin cash back betting you might want to take a look at these bets as well.

Conclude

Lets see how the model performs this round!

Summary

This week most of the predictions are in line with the bookmaker with the exception of two close call matches. The model is tipping Bulldogs over Cowboys (at 56% win probability) and Penrith over Gold Coast (at a very close 50.2%). Both of these games are close to the line at 2.2 and 2.10 respectively.

The model has identified three matches to bet on this week, so lets see how we go!.

As an aside Sportsbet currently has a promo where if your team loses by 8 points or less you get your cash back on the bet (up to $50) so it might be worth looking at some of the matches I wouldn’t ordinarily recommend a bet on.

Particularly, since there are a few close call matches this round (and will likely be pretty close call games) it might be worth taking a punt on these matches considering the money back offer.

So if your a punter, take a look at:

• Manly to win over Canberra (I have it as a pretty close call match even though I have tipped Canberra) but Manly is offering very good odds

• Penrith over Gold Coast

• Bulldogs over North Queensland

Conclude

Lets see how the model performs this round!

Summary

This week all tips are in agreement with the bookmaker. Cowboys are the only team identified as worth backing (at current odds of 1.48). They will remain a good option assuming odds don’t fall below 1.41.

Conclude

Lets see how the model performs this round!

Summary

This week all tips are in agreement with the bookmaker with the exception of Parramatta Eels v Manly Sea Eagles.

The model is recommending one match as good value to stake on at current odds (Cronulla Sharks to win against Canberra Raiders while Home)

Please note the game ordering is a little screwy - and the games aren’t in correct order of play this round! Working on a fix!

Also note, although the model is tipping Titans to win this weekend the model isn’t factoring in the return of star Jarryd Hayne.

Conclude

Lets see how the model performs this round!

Summary

This week we have 6 of 8 predictions in agreement with the current bookmaker odds; exceptions being games 5 & 6 where the model is tipping North Queensland Cowboys to win against Melbourne Storm and Raiders and Parramatta Eels to win against Wests Tigers to beat their respective opponents! Please note the game ordering is a little screwy - and the games aren’t in correct order of play this round! Only noticed late this evening - working on a fix!

Conclude

Lets see how the model performs this round!

Summary

This week we have 6 of 8 predictions in agreement with the current bookmaker odds; exceptions being games 7 & 8 where the model is tipping St George to beat West Tigers and the Rabbits to win at home!

Conclude

Lets see how the model performs this round!

Summary

Sorry for the belated tips! I had massive server issues yesterday which prevented me from running the model!.

We are finally over the Origin and expect to return to less volatile teams going forward from round 20 which means we should hopefully see some stake recommendations come through which we can act on!

The model (incorrectly) tipped St George to win yesterday likely owing to late change to team list/s which was not factored in (Josh Dugan and Benji Marshall were OUT after being named as IN on the initial (July-12) teams list).

This round, the Sharks to win represent the best ‘value’ bet

Here are the remaining tips for the round:

Conclude

Lets see how the model performs this round!

Summary

This week is another bye week and lead up to Origin game 3. The model has favored Sharks and Cowboys despite the loss of players to Origin. The market has jumped on this and is predicting these teams to loose by comparison. Since the model has performed poorly during bye weeks around origin I would not recommend using these predictions to stake on games.

This weeks predictions and recommended stakes below:

Conclude

Lets see how the model performs this round!