Summary

This weeks predictions and recommended stakes below:

Conclude

Lets see how the model performs this round!

Summary

The majority of games this week are in line with the bookmakers and a few games are tipped as being good value bets.

I need to have a hard look at the team lists this week (as some players will be resting up after origin) to determine if I will take action on the recommended stakes. I’ll keep you posted:

Conclude

Lets see how the model performs this round!

Summary

There are only four games this week due to byes leading up to State of Origin game 2 (kick-off 22-June). There are three games which disagree with the bookmaker this week; however the majority of win predictions are modest (<55% chance of win).

The exception is Storm vs Dragons - the bookmaker/market has Dragons as strong favorites (~1.52 back odds) whereas the model has Storm as moderate-strong favorites (63% chance of winning (equivalent to 1.58 odds)). The reason Dragons are strong favorites according to the market is that Storm have two star players out this week (Cameron Smith and Cooper Cronk are OUT due to origin (playing for Qld)). Although the model attempts to accommodate for team dynamic changes, the model obviously has less weight on this variable (players) than the market.

The other (strong) model vs bookmaker disagreement is Roosters vs Warriors. The model favors Roosters, despite them being down four players this week (Abraham Papalii, Aidan Guerra,Blake Ferguson & Eloni Vunakece).

As stated in my last round-up post, I am not completely confident that the model is accounting for large team changes especially around origin, so I am choosing to abstain from bets this round (the model hasn’t indicated any good value bets this round in any case)

As a point of interest, below is the line up for Origin game 2:

Line up for Origin (Source)

QLD:

1. Darius Boyd, 2. Corey Oates, 3. Greg Inglis, 4. Justin O’Neill, 5. Dane Gagai, 6. Johnathan Thurston, 7. Cooper Cronk, 8. Matt Scott, 9. Cameron Smith (c), 10. Josh McGuire, 11. Matt Gillett, 12. Sam Thaiday, 13. Corey Parker

Interchange: 14. Michael Morgan, 15. Jacob Lillyman, 16. Aidan Guerra, 17. Josh Papalii, 18th man. Ethan Lowe

NSW

1. Matt Moylan, 2. Blake Ferguson, 3. Michael Jennings, 4. Josh Morris, 5. Josh Mansour, 6. James Maloney, 7. Adam Reynolds, 8. Aaron Woods, 9. Robbie Farah, 10. James Tamou, 15. Greg Bird, 12. Josh Jackson, 13. Paul Gallen

Interchange: 14. Dylan Walker, 18. Tyson Frizell, 16. David Klemmer, 17. Andrew Fifita

Now lets take a look at this weeks predictions in detail:

Conclude

Lets see how the model performs this round!

Summary

This week (most) of the teams are back at full strength after player layups due to Origin. Predictions this week are mostly in alignment with the bookmaker/market with the exception of:

• Eels v Titans. The model indicates a 59% chance that Eels will win vs the bookmakers 46%

and

• Eagles vs Penrith. The model indicates a 57% chance that Eels will win vs the bookmakers 36%

The largest discrepancy between the model and bookmaker is in the Eagles penrith game.

All games which are in agreement with the bookmaker have negative expected return (indicating poor value bets) and the two games above which are in disagreement with the bookmakers do not meet our probability threshold for wagers (0.66), so again no bets this week!

Conclude

Lets see how the model performs this round!

Summary

NB!! There is currently high volatility in team player lists due to State of Origin matches. During this period there is a self imposed betting ban. Last round was an extremely poor predictive and staking round (1/4 predictive accuracy and 2 staking loss’) indicating the model is not sufficiently catering for team changes. While I have tweaked some model parameters in attempt to mitigate this, I don’t have high confidence team dynamic is accurately reflected in the model.

This round all tips are (currently) in line with bookmaker predictions. However, there is an expectation of low predictive performance due to change in team and match dynamics. Although I wont be staking until team volatility has stabilized, I have supplied preferred bets based on my usual parameters and assuming normal circumstances. Two bets are identified as good value (Storm v Panthers & Roosters v Tigers).

Conclude

Lets see how the model performs this round!

Summary

There are only four matches this round in the lead up to origin next week.

This week the model has identified two matches as good value bets (Broncos to win against Tigers and Cowboys to win against St George). Additionally the model is in disagreement with the bookmaker on two games (Cowboys vs St George and Bulldogs vs Canberra). I am aware that Cowboys and Broncos are missing a lot of (key) players this round due to pending origin matches, however the model still thinks they have a strong chance of winning.

Even though Broncos are at short odds (1.25) the model indicates that we still have positive expected return (our probability that Broncos will win is higher than the probability of the offered odds)

For St George vs Cowboys, currently St George are favorites to win over the Cowboys, however the model predicts the Cowboys as having >70% of winning. This is the best value bet meeting our staking probability threshold (>66%)

Another ‘good’ value bet with high expected return i Bulldogs vs Canberra, however this match doesn’t quite meet our staking probability requirements.

Conclude

Lets hope we have a good round. Good luck contributors!

Summary

This round, (at current odds) no matches have been identified as good value bets! This is the first time across all rounds this has occurred owing to the models perceived closeness of match outcomes. All matches either have negative expected return or the perceived probability of a team winning is <66%. The model agrees with the bookmaker on all games except Storm vs Eels (the model predicts Storm to win). This match also represents the best ‘value’ (and is in fact the only match with indicated positive expected return), however does not pass our current probability cut off limit for staking.

Keep an eye on the odds for Cronalla Sharks, if this team gets to >1.42 odds then it will become a favorable bet. However I see this as unlikely (in fact the odds are probably more likely to shorten).

Since all other perceived probabilities are <66%, even with odds shift the only game the model would recommend a bet on is the Sharks (assuming they move to >1.42 odds)

Conclude

Lets hope we have a good round. Good luck contributors!

Summary

We just had a round of representative games this weekend and matches are still 5 days away so these predictions are a bit preliminary, however are based on current knowledge. The odds currently offered are also likely to change because there hasn’t been a lot of bet placement on games for round 10 due to the rep games these weekend. I expect we will start to see a bit of odds movement soon as punters start to look towards this weeks round of games. Also I expect a bit of odds movement on Parramatta. For those unaware Parramatta has been hit with a range of diciplinary actions due to alleged salary cap breaches. This could mean the (forced) removal of some current team players before their match up with the Rabbits next week in addition to the (potential) psychological effects on the players. Interestingly Parramatta are still $1.48 favorites to beat the Rabbits and for my mind currently represents one of the best hedging opportunities for those odds. In fact my model currently indicates Rabbits as having a higher probability of winning than Parramatta putting aside results of disciplinary action.

For round 10 all of the predictions currently agree with the bookmaker with the exception of Parramatta vs Rabbits, which I indicated above. The model indicates 5 matches which represent good value (at current odds). Even given the currently short odds ($1.25) on Broncos and Sharks to win their respective games the model very strongly (>82% probability) suggests these teams will win.

We may have to re-visit the predictions and stake recommendations closer to match dates

Conclude

Lets hope we have a good round. Good luck contributors!

Summary

We had a great round 8 with 4 of 5 bets paying off (and the 5th returning the stake due to a cash-back offer). The winnings from these bets returned the bank to profit (+14%).

This round there are two games which disagree with the bookmakers (current) predictions and four games have been identified as ‘good value’ bets. Lets take a look:

Conclude

Lets hope we have another good round. Good luck contributors!

Summary

After a poor performing staking round in round 7 (1 of 3 bets correct) we will be looking for a stellar round!

This round, all of the models picks are (currently) in line with the bookmakers predictions and three games have been identified as being ‘good’ value.

These are:

• Game 4: North Queensland Cowboys to win against Parramatta Eels while Home paying $1.35

• Game 5: Cronulla Sharks to win against Penrith Panthers while Home paying $1.60

• Game 8: Melbourne Storm to win against New Zealand Warriors while Home paying $1.67

All of the games are relatively short odds and we will need to watch odds movement to ensure that none of the games swing into ‘poor’ value territory (become negative expected return).

Ok, lets look at the predictions in detail:

Conclude

Lets hope we have a good round. Good luck contributors!