NRL S2016 R07 Results
maxwellAI
20 April 2016
Summary
Unfortunately this round we had a poor performing staking round with a staking accuracy of 33% (wining 1 of 3 bets). Overall we had a predictive accuracy of 62.5% (5 of 8), however unfortunately 2 of the three games we mis-predicted were games we staked on!! This might seem ‘unlucky’, however it is more appropriate to call this result statistically unlikely given the historic performance of high probability predictions. That aside, ‘statistically unlikely’ events can and do happen!
The two staking losses brought our overall bank to $2,107.54 (-92.46 from an initial bank of $2,200) for a return (to date) of -4.2%. Don’t get dis-heartened though; remember this is a season long strategy and we are bound to get a little volatility.
Predictive Results
Given:
mTP = Models true positives
mFP = Models False positives
mPrec = Models precision (equivalent to accuracy in this case)
bTP = Bookmakers true positives
bFP = Bookmakers False positives
bPrec = Bookmakers precision (equivalent to accuracy in this case)
Table of results
| round_no | season | mTP | mFP | bTP | bFP | mPrec | bPrec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 2016 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0.625 | 0.714 |
| round_no | game_no | tip_text | result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2905 | 7 | 1 | Manly Sea Eagles to win against Parramatta Eels while Home | Incorreclty picked |
| 2907 | 7 | 2 | North Queensland Cowboys to win against South Sydney Rabbitohs while Home | Correctly picked |
| 2910 | 7 | 3 | St George Illawarra Dragons to win against Gold Coast Titans while Away | Correctly picked |
| 2911 | 7 | 4 | Canterbury Bulldogs to win against New Zealand Warriors while Home | Incorreclty picked |
| 2913 | 7 | 5 | Brisbane Broncos to win against Newcastle Knights while Home | Correctly picked |
| 2916 | 7 | 6 | Cronulla Sharks to win against Canberra Raiders while Away | Correctly picked |
| 2918 | 7 | 7 | Melbourne Storm to win against Wests Tigers while Away | Correctly picked |
| 2919 | 7 | 8 | Sydney Roosters to win against Penrith Panthers while Home | Incorreclty picked |
Staking results to date
Initial bank = $2,200
Current bank = $2,107.54
Total profit/loss = -92.46
Staking results = 2/4 (50%)
ROI (Total profit / Inital Bank) = -4.2%
For those who have contributed to the initial bank, the break down of your contribution and what you are currently entitled to is below. It’s pretty self explanatory with the main column being ‘entitlement’. This is how much you are entitled given your initial contribution. The gain (in dollars) is the amount of profit/loss you have currently made on your investment
Contributors investment entitlements
| ID | initial_bank | current_bank | cont_amount | entitlement | gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2200 | 2107.54 | 1000 | 957.973 | -42.027 |
| 2 | 2200 | 2107.54 | 500 | 478.986 | -21.014 |
| 3 | 2200 | 2107.54 | 200 | 191.595 | -8.405 |
| 4 | 2200 | 2107.54 | 100 | 95.797 | -4.203 |
| 5 | 2200 | 2107.54 | 100 | 95.797 | -4.203 |
| 6 | 2200 | 2107.54 | 200 | 191.595 | -8.405 |
| 7 | 2200 | 2107.54 | 100 | 95.797 | -4.203 |
Results to date
| round_no | season | mTP | mFP | bTP | bFP | mPrec | bPrec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2016 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 0.625 | 0.625 |
| 2 | 2016 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 0.875 | 0.750 |
| 3 | 2016 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 0.571 | 0.286 |
| 4 | 2016 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 0.375 | 0.875 |
| 5 | 2016 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 0.375 | 0.750 |
| 6 | 2016 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0.875 | 0.500 |
| 7 | 2016 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0.625 | 0.714 |
NB these are results as posted - remodelling of round 4 and 5 considerably improved these results as explained in Results to date
Conclude
Ok, lets hope we can can build on our great start to investing in following rounds!