NRL S2016 R17 prediction and staking guide
maxwellAI
30 June 2016
Summary
This weeks predictions and recommended stakes below:
Predictions
| game_no | tip_text | perceived_prob | bookie_prob | bookie_odds | agree_with_bookie |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Canterbury Bulldogs to win against Sydney Roosters while Away | 0.530 | 0.667 | 1.50 | Y |
| 2 | Brisbane Broncos to win against Melbourne Storm while Home | 0.532 | 0.625 | 1.60 | Y |
| 3 | New Zealand Warriors to win against Gold Coast Titans while Home | 0.551 | 0.735 | 1.36 | Y |
| 4 | Penrith Panthers to win against Wests Tigers while Away | 0.542 | 0.617 | 1.62 | Y |
| 5 | Cronulla Sharks to win against Parramatta Eels while Home | 0.714 | 0.758 | 1.32 | Y |
| 6 | Canberra Raiders to win against Newcastle Knights while Home | 0.825 | 0.909 | 1.10 | Y |
| 7 | North Queensland Cowboys to win against South Sydney Rabbitohs while Away | 0.700 | 0.741 | 1.35 | Y |
| 8 | St George Illawarra Dragons to win against Manly Sea Eagles while Away | 0.532 | 0.426 | 2.35 | N |
NB Bookmaker odds (taken from www.Sportsbet.com.au) as at 30-June-2016
Stake recommendation/s
Recommended bets are those with a perceived probability of > ~0.66 and a positive expected return.
| game_no | tip_text | perceived_prob | bookie_odds | expected_return | recommend_stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Canterbury Bulldogs to win against Sydney Roosters while Away | 0.530 | 1.50 | -0.205 | N |
| 2 | Brisbane Broncos to win against Melbourne Storm while Home | 0.532 | 1.60 | -0.149 | N |
| 3 | New Zealand Warriors to win against Gold Coast Titans while Home | 0.551 | 1.36 | -0.250 | N |
| 4 | Penrith Panthers to win against Wests Tigers while Away | 0.542 | 1.62 | -0.121 | N |
| 5 | Cronulla Sharks to win against Parramatta Eels while Home | 0.714 | 1.32 | -0.057 | N |
| 6 | Canberra Raiders to win against Newcastle Knights while Home | 0.825 | 1.10 | -0.092 | N |
| 7 | North Queensland Cowboys to win against South Sydney Rabbitohs while Away | 0.700 | 1.35 | -0.055 | N |
| 8 | St George Illawarra Dragons to win against Manly Sea Eagles while Away | 0.532 | 2.35 | 0.251 | N |
Conclude
Lets see how the model performs this round!