NRL S2016 R18 prediction and staking guide
maxwellAI
07 July 2016
Summary
This week is another bye week and lead up to Origin game 3. The model has favored Sharks and Cowboys despite the loss of players to Origin. The market has jumped on this and is predicting these teams to loose by comparison. Since the model has performed poorly during bye weeks around origin I would not recommend using these predictions to stake on games.
This weeks predictions and recommended stakes below:
Predictions
| game_no | tip_text | perceived_prob | bookie_prob | bookie_odds | agree_with_bookie |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Parramatta Eels to win against Sydney Roosters while Home | 0.579 | 0.571 | 1.75 | Y |
| 2 | Canterbury Bulldogs to win against Wests Tigers while Home | 0.718 | 0.800 | 1.25 | Y |
| 3 | Cronulla Sharks to win against Penrith Panthers while Away | 0.678 | 0.417 | 2.40 | N |
| 4 | North Queensland Cowboys to win against Canberra Raiders while Away | 0.660 | 0.250 | 4.00 | N |
NB Bookmaker odds (taken from www.Sportsbet.com.au) as at 07-July-2016
Stake recommendation/s
Recommended bets are those with a perceived probability of > ~0.66 and a positive expected return.
NB bye weeks are highly volatile and I expect the model will perform poorly this week
| game_no | tip_text | perceived_prob | bookie_odds | expected_return | recommend_stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Parramatta Eels to win against Sydney Roosters while Home | 0.579 | 1.75 | 0.014 | N |
| 2 | Canterbury Bulldogs to win against Wests Tigers while Home | 0.718 | 1.25 | -0.103 | N |
| 3 | Cronulla Sharks to win against Penrith Panthers while Away | 0.678 | 2.40 | 0.627 | Y |
| 4 | North Queensland Cowboys to win against Canberra Raiders while Away | 0.660 | 4.00 | 1.641 | Y |
Conclude
Lets see how the model performs this round!