NRL S2016 R23 prediction and staking guide
maxwellAI
11 August 2016
Summary
This week all tips are in agreement with the bookmaker. Cowboys are the only team identified as worth backing (at current odds of 1.48). They will remain a good option assuming odds don’t fall below 1.41.
Predictions
| game_no | tip_text | perceived_prob | bookie_prob | bookie_odds | agree_with_bookie |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brisbane Broncos to win against Parramatta Eels while Home | 0.687 | 0.781 | 1.28 | Y |
| 2 | Melbourne Storm to win against Canberra Raiders while Away | 0.593 | 0.565 | 1.77 | Y |
| 3 | Canterbury Bulldogs to win against Manly Sea Eagles while Home | 0.678 | 0.704 | 1.42 | Y |
| 4 | New Zealand Warriors to win against South Sydney Rabbitohs while Home | 0.609 | 0.735 | 1.36 | Y |
| 5 | Penrith Panthers to win against Newcastle Knights while Away | 0.730 | 0.820 | 1.22 | Y |
| 6 | Cronulla Sharks to win against St George Illawarra Dragons while Away | 0.678 | 0.787 | 1.27 | Y |
| 7 | North Queensland Cowboys to win against Sydney Roosters while Away | 0.710 | 0.676 | 1.48 | Y |
| 8 | Wests Tigers to win against Gold Coast Titans while Home | 0.530 | 0.521 | 1.92 | Y |
NB Bookmaker odds (taken from www.Sportsbet.com.au) as at 11-August-2016
Stake recommendation/s
Recommended bets are those with a perceived probability of > ~0.66 and a positive expected return.
| game_no | tip_text | perceived_prob | bookie_odds | expected_return | recommend_stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brisbane Broncos to win against Parramatta Eels while Home | 0.687 | 1.28 | -0.121 | N |
| 2 | Melbourne Storm to win against Canberra Raiders while Away | 0.593 | 1.77 | 0.049 | N |
| 3 | Canterbury Bulldogs to win against Manly Sea Eagles while Home | 0.678 | 1.42 | -0.037 | N |
| 4 | New Zealand Warriors to win against South Sydney Rabbitohs while Home | 0.609 | 1.36 | -0.171 | N |
| 5 | Penrith Panthers to win against Newcastle Knights while Away | 0.730 | 1.22 | -0.109 | N |
| 6 | Cronulla Sharks to win against St George Illawarra Dragons while Away | 0.678 | 1.27 | -0.139 | N |
| 7 | North Queensland Cowboys to win against Sydney Roosters while Away | 0.710 | 1.48 | 0.051 | Y |
| 8 | Wests Tigers to win against Gold Coast Titans while Home | 0.530 | 1.92 | 0.018 | N |
Conclude
Lets see how the model performs this round!