NRL S2016 R24 prediction and staking guide
maxwellAI
18 August 2016
Summary
This week all predictions are in line with the bookmaker with the exception of St George vs Roosters where the model is tipping a St George win. Three games have been identified as being ‘good’ value bets in terms of our defined bet rules. Lets see how we go!
Predictions
| game_no | tip_text | perceived_prob | bookie_prob | bookie_odds | agree_with_bookie |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brisbane Broncos to win against Canterbury Bulldogs while Home | 0.506 | 0.617 | 1.62 | Y |
| 2 | Canberra Raiders to win against Parramatta Eels while Home | 0.761 | 0.820 | 1.22 | Y |
| 3 | Melbourne Storm to win against Manly Sea Eagles while Away | 0.775 | 0.735 | 1.36 | Y |
| 4 | Gold Coast Titans to win against Newcastle Knights while Away | 0.853 | 0.833 | 1.20 | Y |
| 5 | North Queensland Cowboys to win against New Zealand Warriors while Home | 0.660 | 0.806 | 1.24 | Y |
| 6 | Penrith Panthers to win against Wests Tigers while Home | 0.621 | 0.769 | 1.30 | Y |
| 7 | Cronulla Sharks to win against South Sydney Rabbitohs while Away | 0.834 | 0.714 | 1.40 | Y |
| 8 | St George Illawarra Dragons to win against Sydney Roosters while Away | 0.561 | 0.364 | 2.75 | N |
NB Bookmaker odds (taken from www.Sportsbet.com.au) as at 18-August-2016
Stake recommendation/s
Recommended bets are those with a perceived probability of > ~0.66 and a positive expected return.
| game_no | tip_text | perceived_prob | bookie_odds | expected_return | recommend_stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brisbane Broncos to win against Canterbury Bulldogs while Home | 0.506 | 1.62 | -0.180 | N |
| 2 | Canberra Raiders to win against Parramatta Eels while Home | 0.761 | 1.22 | -0.072 | N |
| 3 | Melbourne Storm to win against Manly Sea Eagles while Away | 0.775 | 1.36 | 0.055 | Y |
| 4 | Gold Coast Titans to win against Newcastle Knights while Away | 0.853 | 1.20 | 0.024 | Y |
| 5 | North Queensland Cowboys to win against New Zealand Warriors while Home | 0.660 | 1.24 | -0.182 | N |
| 6 | Penrith Panthers to win against Wests Tigers while Home | 0.621 | 1.30 | -0.193 | N |
| 7 | Cronulla Sharks to win against South Sydney Rabbitohs while Away | 0.834 | 1.40 | 0.167 | Y |
| 8 | St George Illawarra Dragons to win against Sydney Roosters while Away | 0.561 | 2.75 | 0.543 | N |
Conclude
Lets see how the model performs this round!