NRL S2016 Finals round tips
maxwellAI
3 October 2016
Summary
No bets were laid during the finals round due to low confidence in historic model prediction/s, however I posthumously present the models predictions for the 2016 finals season.
Round 27 = Quarter-finals
Round 28 = Semi-finals
Round 29 = Preliminary finals
Round 30 = Grand final
The model recommended bets on Canberra to beat Penrith in the Semi final, and Sharks to beat Cowboys (in the preliminary final). Both bets would have returned wins.
Predictions
| round_no | game_no | tip_text | perceived_prob | bookie_prob | bookie_odds | agree_with_bookie |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 1 | Brisbane Broncos to win against Gold Coast Titans while Home | 0.693 | 0.758 | 1.32 | Y |
| 27 | 2 | Canberra Raiders to win against Cronulla Sharks while Home | 0.531 | 0.680 | 1.47 | Y |
| 27 | 3 | Melbourne Storm to win against North Queensland Cowboys while Home | 0.722 | 0.578 | 1.73 | Y |
| 27 | 4 | Penrith Panthers to win against Canterbury Bulldogs while Home | 0.634 | 0.629 | 1.59 | Y |
| 28 | 1 | North Queensland Cowboys to win against Brisbane Broncos while Home | 0.608 | 0.671 | 1.49 | Y |
| 28 | 2 | Canberra Raiders to win against Penrith Panthers while Home | 0.725 | 0.602 | 1.66 | Y |
| 29 | 1 | Cronulla Sharks to win against North Queensland Cowboys while Home | 0.764 | 0.495 | 2.02 | N |
| 29 | 2 | Melbourne Storm to win against Canberra Raiders while Home | 0.636 | 0.704 | 1.42 | Y |
| 30 | 1 | Melbourne Storm to win against Cronulla Sharks while Home | 0.567 | 0.538 | 1.86 | Y |
NB Bookmaker odds (taken from www.oddsportal.com.au) as at 3-October-2016
Stake recommendation/s
Recommended bets are those with a perceived probability of > ~0.66 and a positive expected return.
| round_no | game_no | tip_text | perceived_prob | bookie_odds | expected_return | recommend_stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 1 | Brisbane Broncos to win against Gold Coast Titans while Home | 0.693 | 1.32 | -0.086 | N |
| 27 | 2 | Canberra Raiders to win against Cronulla Sharks while Home | 0.531 | 1.47 | -0.219 | N |
| 27 | 3 | Melbourne Storm to win against North Queensland Cowboys while Home | 0.722 | 1.73 | 0.249 | Y |
| 27 | 4 | Penrith Panthers to win against Canterbury Bulldogs while Home | 0.634 | 1.59 | 0.009 | N |
| 28 | 1 | North Queensland Cowboys to win against Brisbane Broncos while Home | 0.608 | 1.49 | -0.094 | N |
| 28 | 2 | Canberra Raiders to win against Penrith Panthers while Home | 0.725 | 1.66 | 0.204 | Y |
| 29 | 1 | Cronulla Sharks to win against North Queensland Cowboys while Home | 0.764 | 2.02 | 0.543 | Y |
| 29 | 2 | Melbourne Storm to win against Canberra Raiders while Home | 0.636 | 1.42 | -0.097 | N |
| 30 | 1 | Melbourne Storm to win against Cronulla Sharks while Home | 0.567 | 1.86 | 0.055 | N |