NRL S2016 predictive results to date
maxwellAI
3-Oct-2016
Summary
This post summarizes the models predictive performance vs the bookmakers predictive performance to date.
It additionally summarizes the staking performance to date.
This post will remain sticky and replaces the round by round results post.
Predictive Results
Given:
mTP = Models true positives
mFP = Models False positives
mPrec = Models precision (equivalent to accuracy in this case)
bTP = Bookmakers true positives
bFP = Bookmakers False positives
bPrec = Bookmakers precision (equivalent to accuracy in this case)
Results to date
| season | mTP | mFP | bTP | bFP | mPrec | bPrec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 126 | 73 | 136 | 58 | 0.626 | 0.694 |
| round_no | season | mTP | mFP | bTP | bFP | mPrec | bPrec | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 30 | 2016 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 29 | 29 | 2016 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1.000 | 0.500 |
| 28 | 28 | 2016 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| 27 | 27 | 2016 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0.750 | 0.750 |
| 26 | 26 | 2016 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 0.875 | 0.875 |
| 25 | 25 | 2016 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 0.625 | 0.625 |
| 24 | 24 | 2016 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 0.625 | 0.750 |
| 23 | 23 | 2016 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 0.375 | 0.571 |
| 22 | 22 | 2016 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0.625 | 0.500 |
| 21 | 21 | 2016 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0.571 | 1.000 |
| 20 | 20 | 2016 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 0.625 | 0.875 |
| 19 | 19 | 2016 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0.833 | 0.833 |
| 18 | 18 | 2016 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0.750 | 0.750 |
| 17 | 17 | 2016 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 0.625 | 0.750 |
| 16 | 16 | 2016 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0.714 | 1.000 |
| 15 | 15 | 2016 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0.250 | 1.000 |
| 14 | 14 | 2016 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0.625 | 0.714 |
| 13 | 13 | 2016 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0.714 | 0.571 |
| 12 | 12 | 2016 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.750 |
| 11 | 11 | 2016 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0.750 | 0.625 |
| 10 | 10 | 2016 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0.625 | 0.500 |
| 9 | 9 | 2016 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 0.375 | 0.500 |
| 8 | 8 | 2016 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 0.875 | 0.875 |
| 7 | 7 | 2016 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0.625 | 0.714 |
| 6 | 6 | 2016 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0.875 | 0.500 |
| 5 | 5 | 2016 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 0.375 | 0.750 |
| 4 | 4 | 2016 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 0.375 | 0.875 |
| 3 | 3 | 2016 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 0.571 | 0.286 |
| 2 | 2 | 2016 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 0.875 | 0.750 |
| 1 | 1 | 2016 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 0.625 | 0.625 |
NB these are results as posted - remodelling of round 4 and 5 considerably improved these results as explained in Results to date
The models average overall precision to date is 0.626 vs the bookmakers precision of 0.694.
Staking results
Initial bank = $2,200
Current bank = $2,220
Total profit/loss to date = +$20
Staking results to date = 28 out of 49 bets correct (57%)
- Of the losing stakes, we received 4 manual adjustments (money back due to specials) and 4 bonus (free) bets. Of the 4 bonus bets 4 bets were wins
ROI (Total profit / Initial Bank) = +0.9% (+$20)
Over the season we have staked $3,185 for a return of $3,204 (+$20)
Detailed bet history
| BET.STATUS | BET.DETAILS | STAKE | RETURN | PROFIT | BANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win | Penrith Panthers v Nth Queensland Cowboys / Head To Head / Nth Queensland Cowboys @ 1.67 | 50 | 84 | 34 | 2234 |
| Win | New Zealand Warriors v Manly Sea Eagles / Head To Head / Manly Sea Eagles @ 2.85 | 0 | 92 | 126 | 2326 |
| Win | Penrith Panthers v Nth Queensland Cowboys / Head To Head / Nth Queensland Cowboys @ 1.67 | 60 | 100 | 166 | 2366 |
| Lose | Canterbury Bulldogs v New Zealand Warriors / Head To Head / Canterbury Bulldogs @ 1.90 | 114 | 0 | 52 | 2252 |
| Win | Wests Tigers v Melbourne Storm / Head To Head / Melbourne Storm @ 1.52 | 107 | 163 | 108 | 2308 |
| Lose | Sydney Roosters v Penrith Panthers / Head To Head / Sydney Roosters @ 2.45 | 110 | 0 | -2 | 2198 |
| Win | Multibet (5 folds) | 50 | 293 | 241 | 2441 |
| Lose | St George Illawarra Dragons v Sydney Roosters / Head To Head / Sydney Roosters @ 1.70 | 50 | 0 | 191 | 2391 |
| Win | Nth Queensland Cowboys v Parramatta Eels / Head To Head / Nth Queensland Cowboys @ 1.38 | 100 | 138 | 229 | 2429 |
| Win | Cronulla Sharks v Penrith Panthers / Head To Head / Cronulla Sharks @ 1.60 | 100 | 160 | 289 | 2489 |
| Win | Melbourne Storm v New Zealand Warriors / Head To Head / Melbourne Storm @ 1.67 | 100 | 167 | 356 | 2556 |
| Manual Adjustment | Manual Adjustment | 0 | 50 | 406 | 2606 |
| Lose | South Sydney Rabbitohs v Wests Tigers / Head To Head / South Sydney Rabbitohs @ 1.45 | 100 | 0 | 306 | 2506 |
| Lose | Parramatta Eels v Canterbury Bulldogs / Head To Head / Canterbury Bulldogs @ 1.90 | 100 | 0 | 206 | 2406 |
| Lose | New Zealand Warriors v St George Illawarra Dragons / Head To Head / St George Illawarra Dragons @ 2.45 | 100 | 0 | 106 | 2306 |
| Win | Gold Coast Titans v Melbourne Storm / Head To Head / Melbourne Storm @ 1.50 | 100 | 150 | 156 | 2356 |
| Lose | Sydney Roosters v Newcastle Knights / Head To Head / Newcastle Knights @ 6.10 | 0 | 0 | 156 | 2356 |
| Win | Wests Tigers v Canterbury Bulldogs / Head To Head / Canterbury Bulldogs @ 1.28 | 100 | 128 | 184 | 2384 |
| Win | Newcastle Knights v Cronulla Sharks / Head To Head / Cronulla Sharks @ 1.18 | 100 | 118 | 202 | 2402 |
| Win | Manly Sea Eagles v Brisbane Broncos / Head To Head / Brisbane Broncos @ 1.19 | 100 | 119 | 221 | 2421 |
| Lose | Melbourne Storm v Nth Queensland Cowboys / Head To Head / Nth Queensland Cowboys @ 1.42 | 100 | 0 | 121 | 2321 |
| Win | St George Illawarra Dragons v Canberra Raiders / Head To Head / St George Illawarra Dragons @ 2.07 | 100 | 207 | 228 | 2428 |
| Win | Parramatta Eels v South Sydney Rabbitohs / Head To Head / South Sydney Rabbitohs @ 2.65 | 0 | 82 | 310 | 2510 |
| Lose | St George Illawarra Dragons v Nth Queensland Cowboys / Head To Head / Nth Queensland Cowboys @ 2.00 | 150 | 0 | 160 | 2360 |
| Lose | Brisbane Broncos v Wests Tigers / Head To Head / Brisbane Broncos @ 1.25 | 100 | 0 | 60 | 2260 |
| Win | Brisbane Broncos v Canberra Raiders / Head To Head / Brisbane Broncos @ 1.33 | 0 | 33 | 93 | 2293 |
| Lose | Brisbane Broncos v Canberra Raiders / Head To Head / Canberra Raiders @ 3.45 | 14 | 0 | 79 | 2279 |
| Lose | Cronulla Sharks v Canberra Raiders / Head To Head / Cronulla Sharks @ 1.42 | 50 | 0 | 29 | 2229 |
| Lose | Sydney Roosters v Nth Queensland Cowboys / Head To Head / Nth Queensland Cowboys @ 1.48 | 150 | 0 | -121 | 2079 |
| Win | Manly Sea Eagles v Melbourne Storm / Head To Head / Melbourne Storm @ 1.36 | 50 | 68 | -103 | 2097 |
| Win | Canberra Raiders v Parramatta Eels / Head To Head / Canberra Raiders @ 1.22 | 50 | 61 | -92 | 2108 |
| Lose | South Sydney Rabbitohs v Cronulla Sharks / Head To Head / Cronulla Sharks @ 1.40 | 50 | 0 | -142 | 2058 |
| Lose | Multibet (5 folds) | 50 | 0 | -192 | 2008 |
| Manual Adjustment | Manual Adjustment | 0 | 50 | -142 | 2058 |
| Manual Adjustment | Manual Adjustment | 0 | 50 | -92 | 2108 |
| Lose | Canterbury Bulldogs v Nth Queensland Cowboys / Head To Head / Canterbury Bulldogs @ 2.35 | 50 | 0 | -142 | 2058 |
| Win | Gold Coast Titans v Penrith Panthers / Head To Head / Penrith Panthers @ 2.10 | 50 | 105 | -87 | 2113 |
| Lose | Manly Sea Eagles v Canberra Raiders / Head To Head / Manly Sea Eagles @ 2.67 | 50 | 0 | -137 | 2063 |
| Win | Cronulla Sharks v Sydney Roosters / Head To Head / Cronulla Sharks @ 1.58 | 50 | 79 | -108 | 2092 |
| Lose | Melbourne Storm v Brisbane Broncos / Head To Head / Melbourne Storm @ 1.45 | 50 | 0 | -158 | 2042 |
| Win | Parramatta Eels v St George Illawarra Dragons / Head To Head / Parramatta Eels @ 1.54 | 50 | 77 | -131 | 2069 |
| Manual Adjustment | Manual Adjustment | 0 | 50 | -81 | 2119 |
| Win | Brisbane Broncos v Sydney Roosters / Head To Head / Brisbane Broncos @ 1.22 | 50 | 61 | -70 | 2130 |
| Lose | Canterbury Bulldogs v South Sydney Rabbitohs / Head To Head / Canterbury Bulldogs @ 1.67 | 50 | 0 | -120 | 2080 |
| Win | St George Illawarra Dragons v Newcastle Knights / Head To Head / St George Illawarra Dragons @ 1.35 | 50 | 68 | -102 | 2098 |
| Win | Nth Queensland Cowboys v Gold Coast Titans / Head To Head / Nth Queensland Cowboys @ 1.33 | 50 | 66 | -86 | 2114 |
| Win | Melbourne Storm v Cronulla Sharks / Head To Head / Melbourne Storm @ 1.47 | 50 | 74 | -62 | 2138 |
| Win | Wests Tigers v Canberra Raiders / Head To Head / Canberra Raiders @ 1.67 | 50 | 84 | -29 | 2171 |
| Lose | New Zealand Warriors v Parramatta Eels / Head To Head / New Zealand Warriors @ 1.50 | 50 | 0 | -79 | 2121 |
| Win | Penrith Panthers v Manly Sea Eagles / Head To Head / Penrith Panthers @ 1.28 | 50 | 64 | -65 | 2135 |
| Lose | Multibet (8 folds) | 10 | 0 | -75 | 2125 |
| Win | Multibet (5 folds) | 20 | 98 | 3 | 2203 |
| Win | Brisbane Broncos v Gold Coast Titans / Head To Head / Brisbane Broncos @ 1.33 | 50 | 66 | 20 | 2220 |
For those who have contributed to the initial bank, the break down of your contribution and what you are currently entitled to is below. It’s pretty self explanatory with the main column being ‘entitlement’. This is how much you are entitled given your initial contribution. The gain (in dollars) is the amount of profit/loss you have currently made on your investment
Contributors investment entitlements
| ID | initial_bank | current_bank | cont_amount | entitlement | gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2200 | 2219.8 | 1000 | 1009.0 | 9.0 |
| 2 | 2200 | 2219.8 | 500 | 504.5 | 4.5 |
| 3 | 2200 | 2219.8 | 200 | 201.8 | 1.8 |
| 4 | 2200 | 2219.8 | 100 | 100.9 | 0.9 |
| 5 | 2200 | 2219.8 | 100 | 100.9 | 0.9 |
| 6 | 2200 | 2219.8 | 200 | 201.8 | 1.8 |
| 7 | 2200 | 2219.8 | 100 | 100.9 | 0.9 |