NRL S2016 R03-R04 predictions
maxwellAI
15 March 2016
Summary
Hi guys! Since I will be on hiatus (holiday!!) as of Friday, I am not going to get a chance to post round 4 predictions after the conclusion of round 3. So I am posting round 4 predictions early with the caveat that I cannot update the model with latest results; therefore I would caution the use of round 4 tips. If you want to run with them go for it! If there are a few upsets in round 3 and/or injuries then for round 4, just use the bookmakers odds to determine your pick.
To do this is simple: If the odds for one team are less than the odds for another, then tip that team to win. For example if Broncos are paying 1.57 and the opposing team is paying 2.40 then you would back the Broncos (1.57 < 2.40). Easy!
Quick tips
| season | round_no | tip_text |
|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 3 | North Queensland Cowboys to win against Sydney Roosters while Home |
| 2016 | 3 | Canterbury Bulldogs to win against Parramatta Eels while Home |
| 2016 | 3 | Newcastle Knights to win against Canberra Raiders while Home |
| 2016 | 3 | Brisbane Broncos to win against Penrith Panthers while Away |
| 2016 | 3 | Gold Coast Titans to win against Wests Tigers while Home |
| 2016 | 3 | Melbourne Storm to win against New Zealand Warriors while Away |
| 2016 | 3 | South Sydney Rabbitohs to win against St George Illawarra Dragons while Away |
| 2016 | 3 | Manly Sea Eagles to win against Cronulla Sharks while Home |
| 2016 | 4 | South Sydney Rabbitohs to win against Canterbury Bulldogs while Home |
| 2016 | 4 | Brisbane Broncos to win against North Queensland Cowboys while Home |
| 2016 | 4 | Canberra Raiders to win against Gold Coast Titans while Home |
| 2016 | 4 | Sydney Roosters to win against Manly Sea Eagles while Home |
| 2016 | 4 | St George Illawarra Dragons to win against Penrith Panthers while Home |
| 2016 | 4 | New Zealand Warriors to win against Newcastle Knights while Home |
| 2016 | 4 | Wests Tigers to win against Parramatta Eels while Home |
| 2016 | 4 | Melbourne Storm to win against Cronulla Sharks while Away |
Perceived Probability vs Boomkaker Odds
| match_up | perceived_prob | bookie_prob | bookie_odds | agree_with_bookie |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Queensland Cowboys vs Sydney Roosters | 0.591 | 0.806 | 1.24 | Y |
| Canterbury Bulldogs vs Parramatta Eels | 0.741 | 0.637 | 1.57 | Y |
| Newcastle Knights vs Canberra Raiders | 0.578 | 0.417 | 2.40 | N |
| Brisbane Broncos vs Penrith Panthers | 0.525 | 0.667 | 1.50 | Y |
| Gold Coast Titans vs Wests Tigers | 0.550 | 0.465 | 2.15 | N |
| Melbourne Storm vs New Zealand Warriors | 0.603 | 0.476 | 2.10 | N |
| South Sydney Rabbitohs vs St George Illawarra Dragons | 0.517 | 0.725 | 1.38 | Y |
| Manly Sea Eagles vs Cronulla Sharks | 0.728 | 0.546 | 1.83 | Y |
| South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Canterbury Bulldogs | 0.589 | 0.515 | 1.94 | Y |
| Brisbane Broncos vs North Queensland Cowboys | 0.640 | 0.637 | 1.57 | Y |
| Canberra Raiders vs Gold Coast Titans | 0.569 | 0.752 | 1.33 | Y |
| Sydney Roosters vs Manly Sea Eagles | 0.539 | 0.472 | 2.12 | N |
| St George Illawarra Dragons vs Penrith Panthers | 0.627 | 0.606 | 1.65 | Y |
| New Zealand Warriors vs Newcastle Knights | 0.594 | 0.893 | 1.12 | Y |
| Wests Tigers vs Parramatta Eels | 0.660 | 0.417 | 2.40 | N |
| Melbourne Storm vs Cronulla Sharks | 0.636 | 0.472 | 2.12 | N |
Stake recommendation/s
| match_up | expected_return | full_kelly_fraction | recommend_stake |
|---|---|---|---|
| North Queensland Cowboys vs Sydney Roosters | -0.267 | -1.111 | N |
| Canterbury Bulldogs vs Parramatta Eels | 0.164 | 0.287 | Y |
| Newcastle Knights vs Canberra Raiders | 0.388 | 0.277 | N |
| Brisbane Broncos vs Penrith Panthers | -0.213 | -0.426 | N |
| Gold Coast Titans vs Wests Tigers | 0.182 | 0.158 | N |
| Melbourne Storm vs New Zealand Warriors | 0.265 | 0.241 | N |
| South Sydney Rabbitohs vs St George Illawarra Dragons | -0.287 | -0.755 | N |
| Manly Sea Eagles vs Cronulla Sharks | 0.332 | 0.400 | Y |
| South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Canterbury Bulldogs | 0.143 | 0.152 | N |
| Brisbane Broncos vs North Queensland Cowboys | 0.005 | 0.009 | N |
| Canberra Raiders vs Gold Coast Titans | -0.243 | -0.736 | N |
| Sydney Roosters vs Manly Sea Eagles | 0.143 | 0.127 | N |
| St George Illawarra Dragons vs Penrith Panthers | 0.034 | 0.052 | N |
| New Zealand Warriors vs Newcastle Knights | -0.334 | -2.787 | N |
| Wests Tigers vs Parramatta Eels | 0.583 | 0.417 | Y |
| Melbourne Storm vs Cronulla Sharks | 0.348 | 0.311 | N |
Conclude
Ill be back in business for round 5 (the all important first round of live betting)