NRL S2016 R06 predictions and staking guide
maxwellAI
7 April 2016
Summary
Hi guys! So this is the first round of actual staking!!
My current bank is $1,000, therefore I will be placing $50 (5% of the rounds initial bank) on each game which satisfies my staking requirements as discussed in the Staking Strategy.
To summarize the staking strategy, we are looking for games where the perceived probability is greater than ~0.66 and where this perceived probability is greater than the implied (bookmakers) probability (i.e has a positive expected return).
The only game which satisfies this is game 5, where the Cowboys are predicted to win against Penrith while away.
There are a number of other games which have positive expected return, however most of these are relatively marginal (model has weak <55% perceived probability). The best bet/s according to expected return are games 2 and 4, both of which are predictions against the bookmaker and represent relatively risky (but higher return) bets.
To further summarize:
I am staking $50 one game (Game 5, Cowboys to win against Penrith) this round. The odds on Cowboys to win at time of writing are 1.61 representing a potential profit of $30.50 (1.61*$50 - $50). I consider this a ‘risk adverse bet’ with high chance of winning for relatively low return
For those who want to take a ‘punt’, I would place bets on games 2 (Roosters to win against Rabbits while Rabbits are home) and on game 4 (Manly to win against New zealand while New Zealand is home), however these would be pretty big ‘upsets’. These games offer long odds and the model indicates small chance of win/s. Roosters are paying 2.81 (potential profit of $90.5 off a $50 bet) while Manly is paying 3.09 (potential profit of $104.50 off a $50 bet). Bear in mind however that the Roosters have not won a game this year, are bottom of the ladder and lost against the Rabbits in round 1.. so um yeah..
Finally, for those that have the perception that New Zealand is hard to beat at home… a small tidbit for you: Manly has played against New Zealand in Auckland five times since 2009.. and Manly has won four of those five games…In addition to this, New Zealand only has a win rate of 53% at home…but that probably doesn’t mean anything 😉
Ok, so lets take a detailed look at the predictions for this week and how they compare to the bookmaker predictions:
Predictions
| game_no | tip_text | perceived_prob | bookie_prob | bookie_odds | agree_with_bookie |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brisbane Broncos to win against St George Illawarra Dragons while Home | 0.780 | 0.877 | 1.14 | Y |
| 2 | Sydney Roosters to win against South Sydney Rabbitohs while Away | 0.540 | 0.356 | 2.81 | N |
| 3 | Parramatta Eels to win against Canberra Raiders while Home | 0.512 | 0.685 | 1.46 | Y |
| 4 | Manly Sea Eagles to win against New Zealand Warriors while Away | 0.542 | 0.324 | 3.09 | N |
| 5 | North Queensland Cowboys to win against Penrith Panthers while Away | 0.778 | 0.621 | 1.61 | Y |
| 6 | Cronulla Sharks to win against Gold Coast Titans while Home | 0.721 | 0.800 | 1.25 | Y |
| 7 | Newcastle Knights to win against Wests Tigers while Home | 0.506 | 0.500 | 2.00 | N |
| 8 | Melbourne Storm to win against Canterbury Bulldogs while Home | 0.613 | 0.588 | 1.70 | Y |
NB Bookmaker odds represent average of 16 bookmakers (taken from www.OddsPortal.com) as at 6-Apr-2016
Prediction observations
We can see that there are three games where the model prediction dis-agrees with the bookmakers. Specifically games 2, 4 and 7.
We can also see that there are four model predictions (games 2,3 4 and 7) which are relatively marginal (the perceived probabilities are <55%) indicating weak preference for these teams to win.
Stake recommendation/s
Recommended bets are those with a perceived probability of > 0.66 and a positive expected return. I have also included a potential profit (from a $50 bet) assuming you back the prediction.
| game_no | tip_text | perceived_prob | bookie_prob | expected_return | recommend_stake | potential_profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brisbane Broncos to win against St George Illawarra Dragons while Home | 0.780 | 0.877 | -0.111 | N | 7.0 |
| 2 | Sydney Roosters to win against South Sydney Rabbitohs while Away | 0.540 | 0.356 | 0.517 | N | 90.5 |
| 3 | Parramatta Eels to win against Canberra Raiders while Home | 0.512 | 0.685 | -0.252 | N | 23.0 |
| 4 | Manly Sea Eagles to win against New Zealand Warriors while Away | 0.542 | 0.324 | 0.674 | N | 104.5 |
| 5 | North Queensland Cowboys to win against Penrith Panthers while Away | 0.778 | 0.621 | 0.252 | Y | 30.5 |
| 6 | Cronulla Sharks to win against Gold Coast Titans while Home | 0.721 | 0.800 | -0.099 | N | 12.5 |
| 7 | Newcastle Knights to win against Wests Tigers while Home | 0.506 | 0.500 | 0.013 | N | 50.0 |
| 8 | Melbourne Storm to win against Canterbury Bulldogs while Home | 0.613 | 0.588 | 0.042 | N | 35.0 |
As summarized, there is only one game (game 5) which satisfies the staking plan; however there are a number of high expected return games which may be worth betting on for those who are not risk adverse.
Conclude
Ok, now lets the real experiment begin!!