NRL S2016 R06 Results

Kane Maxwell 2016-Results

NRL S2016 R06 Results

Summary

We had a great round 6; with seven out of eight predictions correct (87.5% precision). We missed out a clean sweep (8/8) only on the last game where Bulldogs defeated Melbourne. The bookmakers didn’t have as good a round, predicting only 4 of 8 games correctly!

I stated in my last post , I was going to stake $50 (5% of $1,000) on the Cowboys to win against Penrith at odds of 1.61. Not long after my post I had a flood of contributors which increased the starting bank roll to $2,200 and hence the final stake to $110. By the time I placed the bet the odds actually lengthened (which is favorable) to 1.69 and we ended up with a profit of $75.90 ($110*1.69 - $110).

Those that took my advice and had a ‘punt’ on Roosters to beat the Rabbits and Manly to beat the Warriors would have come away with tidy profits as the final odds offered on these games were very decent!

Finally, this was another round where away teams won just as many games as home teams (4 each), further validating my decision to de-weight the importance of this feature in my re-model.

Predictive Results

Given:

mTP = Models true positives

mFP = Models False positives

mPrec = Models precision (equivalent to accuracy in this case)

bTP = Bookmakers true positives

bFP = Bookmakers False positives

bPrec = Bookmakers precision (equivalent to accuracy in this case)

Table of results

Predictive model vs bookmaker precision by round
round_no season mTP mFP bTP bFP mPrec bPrec
6 2016 7 1 4 4 0.875 0.5
round_no game_no tip_text result
2889 6 1 Brisbane Broncos to win against St George Illawarra Dragons while Home Correctly picked
2892 6 2 Sydney Roosters to win against South Sydney Rabbitohs while Away Correctly picked
2893 6 3 Parramatta Eels to win against Canberra Raiders while Home Correctly picked
2896 6 4 Manly Sea Eagles to win against New Zealand Warriors while Away Correctly picked
2898 6 5 North Queensland Cowboys to win against Penrith Panthers while Away Correctly picked
2899 6 6 Cronulla Sharks to win against Gold Coast Titans while Home Correctly picked
2901 6 7 Newcastle Knights to win against Wests Tigers while Home Correctly picked
2903 6 8 Melbourne Storm to win against Canterbury Bulldogs while Home Incorreclty picked

Staking results

Since we have only just started betting rounds graphing is a little boring as we don’t see movement (of profit) until round 6.

In any case our first bet was on the Cowboys to beat the Warriors at odds of 1.69. We ended up placing $110 on this game with a profit of $75.90 ($110*1.69 - $110).

Detail:

Initial bank = $2,200

Stake = 5% of $2,200 ($110)

Profit = $75.90

New bank = $2,275.90

For those who have contributed to the initial bank, the break down of your contribution and what you are currently entitled to is below. It’s pretty self explanatory with the main column being ‘entitlement’. This is how much you are entitled given your initial contribution. The season_profit_loss is the amount of profit your investment has made (3.45% growth from one win).

Contributors investment entitlements

contributerID initial_bank current_bank contribution_amount entitlement season_profit_loss
1 2200 2275.9 1000 1034.50 34.50
2 2200 2275.9 500 517.25 17.25
3 2200 2275.9 200 206.90 6.90
4 2200 2275.9 100 103.45 3.45
5 2200 2275.9 100 103.45 3.45
6 2200 2275.9 200 206.90 6.90
7 2200 2275.9 100 103.45 3.45

Results to date

Predictive model vs bookmaker precision by round
round_no season mTP mFP bTP bFP mPrec bPrec
1 2016 5 3 5 3 0.625 0.625
2 2016 7 1 6 2 0.875 0.750
3 2016 4 3 2 5 0.571 0.286
4 2016 3 5 7 1 0.375 0.875
5 2016 3 5 6 2 0.375 0.750
6 2016 7 1 4 4 0.875 0.500

NB these are results as posted - remodelling of round 4 and 5 considerably improved these results as explained in Results to date

Conclude

Ok, lets hope we can can build on our great start to investing in following rounds!