NRL S2016 R08 predictions and staking guide
maxwellAI
20 April 2016
Summary
After a poor performing staking round in round 7 (1 of 3 bets correct) we will be looking for a stellar round!
This round, all of the models picks are (currently) in line with the bookmakers predictions and three games have been identified as being ‘good’ value.
These are:
Game 4: North Queensland Cowboys to win against Parramatta Eels while Home paying $1.35
Game 5: Cronulla Sharks to win against Penrith Panthers while Home paying $1.60
Game 8: Melbourne Storm to win against New Zealand Warriors while Home paying $1.67
All of the games are relatively short odds and we will need to watch odds movement to ensure that none of the games swing into ‘poor’ value territory (become negative expected return).
Ok, lets look at the predictions in detail:
Predictions
| game_no | tip_text | perceived_prob | bookie_prob | bookie_odds | agree_with_bookie |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brisbane Broncos to win against South Sydney Rabbitohs while Home | 0.753 | 0.862 | 1.16 | Y |
| 2 | Canterbury Bulldogs to win against Gold Coast Titans while Home | 0.706 | 0.741 | 1.35 | Y |
| 3 | Canberra Raiders to win against Wests Tigers while Home | 0.662 | 0.704 | 1.42 | Y |
| 4 | North Queensland Cowboys to win against Parramatta Eels while Home | 0.797 | 0.741 | 1.35 | Y |
| 5 | Cronulla Sharks to win against Penrith Panthers while Home | 0.730 | 0.625 | 1.60 | Y |
| 6 | Manly Sea Eagles to win against Newcastle Knights while Away | 0.652 | 0.714 | 1.40 | Y |
| 7 | Sydney Roosters to win against St George Illawarra Dragons while Away | 0.581 | 0.571 | 1.75 | Y |
| 8 | Melbourne Storm to win against New Zealand Warriors while Home | 0.762 | 0.599 | 1.67 | Y |
NB Bookmaker odds (taken from www.Sportsbet.com.au) as at 19-Apr-2016
Prediction observations
We observe that all the predictions are (currently) in agreement with the bookmakers predictions and that probabilities (perceived and implied) are generally high (>60%).
Stake recommendation/s
Recommended bets are those with a perceived probability of > ~0.66 and a positive expected return.
| game_no | tip_text | perceived_prob | bookie_odds | expected_return | recommend_stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brisbane Broncos to win against South Sydney Rabbitohs while Home | 0.753 | 1.16 | -0.127 | N |
| 2 | Canterbury Bulldogs to win against Gold Coast Titans while Home | 0.706 | 1.35 | -0.046 | N |
| 3 | Canberra Raiders to win against Wests Tigers while Home | 0.662 | 1.42 | -0.060 | N |
| 4 | North Queensland Cowboys to win against Parramatta Eels while Home | 0.797 | 1.35 | 0.076 | Y |
| 5 | Cronulla Sharks to win against Penrith Panthers while Home | 0.730 | 1.60 | 0.169 | Y |
| 6 | Manly Sea Eagles to win against Newcastle Knights while Away | 0.652 | 1.40 | -0.087 | N |
| 7 | Sydney Roosters to win against St George Illawarra Dragons while Away | 0.581 | 1.75 | 0.017 | N |
| 8 | Melbourne Storm to win against New Zealand Warriors while Home | 0.762 | 1.67 | 0.273 | Y |
Conclude
Lets hope we have a good round. Good luck contributors!