NRL S2016 R08 Results
maxwellAI
27 April 2016
Summary
We had a great round with 7/8 predictions correct. In addition to this, of the 5 bets placed, we profited from 4 and broke even on the 5th (due to cash back offer). Our initial bank for the round was $2,107.54 and after all concluded bets the bank sits at $2513.03 This represents a $313 profit to date (14% ROI)
We had a big win from a 5 game ‘multibet’, and profited from the 3 head to head bets recommended by the model.
Before I go on, in my last post I indicated I was staking on 3 head to head games (all of which profited), however after my post I actually placed two additional bet. One was a ‘multibet’ and the other was a head to head bet of which a there was a bookmakers promotion offering cash-back under certain conditions (margin <8 points).
I haven’t explained the math behind why I did this however I will outline in a future post explaining how Sportsbet’s head-to-head multibet odds are calculated. I also realize that I said in my original staking strategy that I wouldn’t place any ‘exotic’ bet types, however I hadn’t factored in the potential advantages which can be gained from various bookmaker promotions (which make some of these bet type more attractive). Again I will explain in a future post. Ok, now lets review how we did in detail:
Predictive Results
Given:
mTP = Models true positives
mFP = Models False positives
mPrec = Models precision (equivalent to accuracy in this case)
bTP = Bookmakers true positives
bFP = Bookmakers False positives
bPrec = Bookmakers precision (equivalent to accuracy in this case)
Table of results
| round_no | season | mTP | mFP | bTP | bFP | mPrec | bPrec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 2016 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 0.875 | 0.875 |
| round_no | game_no | tip_text | result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2921 | 8 | 1 | Brisbane Broncos to win against South Sydney Rabbitohs while Home | Correctly picked |
| 2923 | 8 | 2 | Canterbury Bulldogs to win against Gold Coast Titans while Home | Correctly picked |
| 2925 | 8 | 3 | Canberra Raiders to win against Wests Tigers while Home | Correctly picked |
| 2927 | 8 | 4 | North Queensland Cowboys to win against Parramatta Eels while Home | Correctly picked |
| 2929 | 8 | 5 | Cronulla Sharks to win against Penrith Panthers while Home | Correctly picked |
| 2932 | 8 | 6 | Manly Sea Eagles to win against Newcastle Knights while Away | Correctly picked |
| 2934 | 8 | 7 | Sydney Roosters to win against St George Illawarra Dragons while Away | Incorreclty picked |
| 2935 | 8 | 8 | Melbourne Storm to win against New Zealand Warriors while Home | Correctly picked |
Staking results to date
Initial bank = $2,200
Previous Round Bank = $2,107.54
Current bank = $2513.03
Total profit/loss = 331.03
Round Staking results = 4 out of 5 bets correct
Staking results to date = 6 out of 9 bets correct
ROI (Total profit / Initial Bank) = 14.2%
| BET.STATUS | DATE.PLACED | BET.DETAILS | STAKE | RETURN | PROFIT | BANK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Win | 8-Apr-16 | Penrith Panthers v Nth Queensland Cowboys / Head To Head / Nth Queensland Cowboys @ 1.67 | 50 | 84 | 34 | 2234 |
| 2 | Win | 9-Apr-16 | Penrith Panthers v Nth Queensland Cowboys / Head To Head / Nth Queensland Cowboys @ 1.67 | 60 | 100 | 74 | 2274 |
| 4 | Lose | 16-Apr-16 | Canterbury Bulldogs v New Zealand Warriors / Head To Head / Canterbury Bulldogs @ 1.90 | 114 | 0 | -40 | 2160 |
| 5 | Win | 17-Apr-16 | Wests Tigers v Melbourne Storm / Head To Head / Melbourne Storm @ 1.52 | 107 | 163 | 15 | 2215 |
| 6 | Lose | 18-Apr-16 | Sydney Roosters v Penrith Panthers / Head To Head / Sydney Roosters @ 2.45 | 110 | 0 | -95 | 2105 |
| 7 | Win | 20-Apr-16 | Melbourne Storm v New Zealand Warriors / Head To Head / Melbourne Storm @ 1.67 | 100 | 167 | -28 | 2172 |
| 8 | Win | 20-Apr-16 | Cronulla Sharks v Penrith Panthers / Head To Head / Cronulla Sharks @ 1.60 | 100 | 160 | 32 | 2232 |
| 9 | Win | 20-Apr-16 | Nth Queensland Cowboys v Parramatta Eels / Head To Head / Nth Queensland Cowboys @ 1.38 | 100 | 138 | 70 | 2270 |
| 10 | Lose | 20-Apr-16 | St George Illawarra Dragons v Sydney Roosters / Head To Head / Sydney Roosters @ 1.70 | 50 | 0 | 70 | 2270 |
| 11 | Win | 20-Apr-16 | Multibet (5 folds) | 50 | 293 | 313 | 2513 |
For those who have contributed to the initial bank, the break down of your contribution and what you are currently entitled to is below. It’s pretty self explanatory with the main column being ‘entitlement’. This is how much you are entitled given your initial contribution. The gain (in dollars) is the amount of profit/loss you have currently made on your investment
Contributors investment entitlements
| ID | initial_bank | current_bank | cont_amount | entitlement | gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2200 | 2513.03 | 1000 | 1142.286 | 142.286 |
| 2 | 2200 | 2513.03 | 500 | 571.143 | 71.143 |
| 3 | 2200 | 2513.03 | 200 | 228.457 | 28.457 |
| 4 | 2200 | 2513.03 | 100 | 114.229 | 14.229 |
| 5 | 2200 | 2513.03 | 100 | 114.229 | 14.229 |
| 6 | 2200 | 2513.03 | 200 | 228.457 | 28.457 |
| 7 | 2200 | 2513.03 | 100 | 114.229 | 14.229 |
Results to date
| round_no | season | mTP | mFP | bTP | bFP | mPrec | bPrec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2016 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 0.625 | 0.625 |
| 2 | 2016 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 0.875 | 0.750 |
| 3 | 2016 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 0.571 | 0.286 |
| 4 | 2016 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 0.375 | 0.875 |
| 5 | 2016 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 0.375 | 0.750 |
| 6 | 2016 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0.875 | 0.500 |
| 7 | 2016 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0.625 | 0.714 |
| 8 | 2016 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 0.875 | 0.875 |
NB these are results as posted - remodelling of round 4 and 5 considerably improved these results as explained in Results to date
Conclude
Ok, lets hope we can can build on our great start to investing in following rounds!