NRL S2016 R09 predictions and staking guide
maxwellAI
27 April 2016
Summary
We had a great round 8 with 4 of 5 bets paying off (and the 5th returning the stake due to a cash-back offer). The winnings from these bets returned the bank to profit (+14%).
This round there are two games which disagree with the bookmakers (current) predictions and four games have been identified as ‘good value’ bets. Lets take a look:
Predictions
| game_no | tip_text | perceived_prob | bookie_prob | bookie_odds | agree_with_bookie |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Sydney Rabbitohs to win against Wests Tigers while Home | 0.794 | 0.704 | 1.42 | Y |
| 2 | Canterbury Bulldogs to win against Parramatta Eels while Away | 0.699 | 0.526 | 1.90 | Y |
| 3 | Canberra Raiders to win against Penrith Panthers while Away | 0.638 | 0.444 | 2.25 | N |
| 4 | Sydney Roosters to win against Newcastle Knights while Home | 0.741 | 0.769 | 1.30 | Y |
| 5 | North Queensland Cowboys to win against Manly Sea Eagles while Away | 0.719 | 0.741 | 1.35 | Y |
| 6 | St George Illawarra Dragons to win against New Zealand Warriors while Away | 0.736 | 0.408 | 2.45 | N |
| 7 | Melbourne Storm to win against Gold Coast Titans while Away | 0.678 | 0.667 | 1.50 | Y |
| 8 | Brisbane Broncos to win against Cronulla Sharks while Away | 0.624 | 0.581 | 1.72 | Y |
NB Bookmaker odds (taken from www.Sportsbet.com.au) as at 26-Apr-2016
Prediction observations
There are two games (game 3 and 6; Canberra Raiders v Penrith Panthers and St George Illawarra Dragons v New Zealand Warriors) which do not agree with the bookmakers predictions. There is very strong disagreement in game 6 where the model predicts St George as winning with a probability of 73.4% vs the bookmakers probability of 40.8%. This game represents very good value assuming the perceived probabilities are accurate. The overall probability of predictions is quite high; all being > 60%.
Stake recommendation/s
Recommended bets are those with a perceived probability of > ~0.66 and a positive expected return.
| game_no | tip_text | perceived_prob | bookie_odds | expected_return | recommend_stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Sydney Rabbitohs to win against Wests Tigers while Home | 0.794 | 1.42 | 0.127 | Y |
| 2 | Canterbury Bulldogs to win against Parramatta Eels while Away | 0.699 | 1.90 | 0.329 | Y |
| 3 | Canberra Raiders to win against Penrith Panthers while Away | 0.638 | 2.25 | 0.435 | N |
| 4 | Sydney Roosters to win against Newcastle Knights while Home | 0.741 | 1.30 | -0.036 | N |
| 5 | North Queensland Cowboys to win against Manly Sea Eagles while Away | 0.719 | 1.35 | -0.029 | N |
| 6 | St George Illawarra Dragons to win against New Zealand Warriors while Away | 0.736 | 2.45 | 0.803 | Y |
| 7 | Melbourne Storm to win against Gold Coast Titans while Away | 0.678 | 1.50 | 0.017 | Y |
| 8 | Brisbane Broncos to win against Cronulla Sharks while Away | 0.624 | 1.72 | 0.073 | N |
NB bank and stake amounts are rounded to whole numbers
Four games are identified as being good value bets, and this round we will be staking level ($100) stakes on each game.
Conclude
Lets hope we have another good round. Good luck contributors!