NRL S2016 R09 Results
maxwellAI
05 May 2016
Summary
This round was pretty interesting!!. The predictive accuracy was well below average with only 3 of 8 predictions being correct! There were some pretty big odds swings after my initial post (~3 days before start of the round) so I am comparing the closing odds (to demonstrate how poorly the ‘market’/bookmaker did on this round as well). Four strong favorites for the round ended up losing (50% bookmaker accuracy) which included 3 games we staked on. In particular:
- St George lost to Warriors after becoming strong (1.65) favorites when it was announced Warriors dropped six players from the team. When we staked on this game we locked in odds on St George at 2.45 so it actually became a game which we had a high probability of a decent return, but alas St George couldn’t do it!!
- As a side note, the opening and closing odds of St George represented one of the best hedging opportunities of the year which I will discuss in an upcoming post on arbitrage/hedging
Rabbits (strong 1.35 favorites) lost to West Tigers
Bulldogs (reasonably strong 1.65 favorites) lost to Parramatta
Brisbane lost to Sharks (28-30) after a strong (but not strong enough) come back in the second half
Aside from this we did have a win on Melbourne at odds of 1.50 ($50 profit).
Needless to say that the three staking losses made a reasonable impact on the overall bank taking a $250 chunk off our $2,513. This took our bank back down to $2,263, however this is still $63 above our initial bank so we are still in the black. Its just unfortunate that we “lost” an opportunity to increase our profit margins to sustain potential future losses.
Predictive Results
Given:
mTP = Models true positives
mFP = Models False positives
mPrec = Models precision (equivalent to accuracy in this case)
bTP = Bookmakers true positives
bFP = Bookmakers False positives
bPrec = Bookmakers precision (equivalent to accuracy in this case)
Table of results
| round_no | season | mTP | mFP | bTP | bFP | mPrec | bPrec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 2016 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 0.375 | 0.5 |
| round_no | game_no | tip_text | perceived_odds | implied_odds | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 1 | South Sydney Rabbitohs to win against Wests Tigers while Home | 1.26 | 1.35 | Incorreclty picked |
| 9 | 2 | Canterbury Bulldogs to win against Parramatta Eels while Away | 1.43 | 1.67 | Incorreclty picked |
| 9 | 3 | Canberra Raiders to win against Penrith Panthers while Away | 1.57 | 2.36 | Incorreclty picked |
| 9 | 4 | Sydney Roosters to win against Newcastle Knights while Home | 1.35 | 1.14 | Correctly picked |
| 9 | 5 | North Queensland Cowboys to win against Manly Sea Eagles while Away | 1.39 | 1.28 | Correctly picked |
| 9 | 6 | St George Illawarra Dragons to win against New Zealand Warriors while Away | 1.36 | 1.65 | Incorreclty picked |
| 9 | 7 | Melbourne Storm to win against Gold Coast Titans while Away | 1.47 | 1.81 | Correctly picked |
| 9 | 8 | Brisbane Broncos to win against Cronulla Sharks while Away | 1.60 | 1.88 | Incorreclty picked |
Staking results
Initial bank = $2,200
Previous Round Bank = $2,513.03
Current bank = $2,263.03
Total round profit/loss = -$250
Total profit/loss to date = 63.03
Round Staking results = 1 out of 4 bets correct
Staking results to date = 7 out of 14 bets correct
ROI (Total profit / Initial Bank) = 2.8%
| round | game_no | BET.STATUS | BET.DETAILS | STAKE | RETURN | PROFIT | BANK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 6 | 5 | Win | Penrith Panthers v Nth Queensland Cowboys / Head To Head / Nth Queensland Cowboys @ 1.67 | 50 | 84 | 34 | 2234 |
| 3 | 6 | 5 | Win | Penrith Panthers v Nth Queensland Cowboys / Head To Head / Nth Queensland Cowboys @ 1.67 | 60 | 100 | 74 | 2274 |
| 4 | 7 | 4 | Lose | Canterbury Bulldogs v New Zealand Warriors / Head To Head / Canterbury Bulldogs @ 1.90 | 114 | 0 | -40 | 2160 |
| 5 | 7 | 7 | Win | Wests Tigers v Melbourne Storm / Head To Head / Melbourne Storm @ 1.52 | 107 | 163 | 15 | 2215 |
| 6 | 7 | 8 | Lose | Sydney Roosters v Penrith Panthers / Head To Head / Sydney Roosters @ 2.45 | 110 | 0 | -95 | 2105 |
| 7 | 8 | 4 | Win | Nth Queensland Cowboys v Parramatta Eels / Head To Head / Nth Queensland Cowboys @ 1.38 | 100 | 138 | -57 | 2143 |
| 8 | 8 | 5 | Win | Cronulla Sharks v Penrith Panthers / Head To Head / Cronulla Sharks @ 1.60 | 100 | 160 | 3 | 2203 |
| 9 | 8 | 7 | Lose | St George Illawarra Dragons v Sydney Roosters / Head To Head / Sydney Roosters @ 1.70 | 50 | 0 | 3 | 2203 |
| 10 | 8 | 8 | Win | Melbourne Storm v New Zealand Warriors / Head To Head / Melbourne Storm @ 1.67 | 100 | 167 | 70 | 2270 |
| 11 | 8 | 1,2,3,5,8 | Win | Brisbane Broncos / Canterbury Bulldogs / Canberra Raiders / Cronulla Sharks / Melbourne Storm @ 5.85 | 50 | 293 | 313 | 2513 |
| 12 | 9 | 1 | Lose | South Sydney Rabbitohs v Wests Tigers / Head To Head / South Sydney Rabbitohs @ 1.45 | 100 | 0 | 213 | 2413 |
| 13 | 9 | 2 | Lose | Parramatta Eels v Canterbury Bulldogs / Head To Head / Canterbury Bulldogs @ 1.90 | 100 | 0 | 113 | 2313 |
| 15 | 9 | 6 | Lose | New Zealand Warriors v St George Illawarra Dragons / Head To Head / St George Illawarra Dragons @ 2.45 | 100 | 0 | 13 | 2213 |
| 16 | 9 | 7 | Win | Gold Coast Titans v Melbourne Storm / Head To Head / Melbourne Storm @ 1.50 | 100 | 150 | 63 | 2263 |
For those who have contributed to the initial bank, the break down of your contribution and what you are currently entitled to is below. It’s pretty self explanatory with the main column being ‘entitlement’. This is how much you are entitled given your initial contribution. The gain (in dollars) is the amount of profit/loss you have currently made on your investment
Contributors investment entitlements
| ID | initial_bank | current_bank | cont_amount | entitlement | gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2200 | 2263.03 | 1000 | 1028.650 | 28.650 |
| 2 | 2200 | 2263.03 | 500 | 514.325 | 14.325 |
| 3 | 2200 | 2263.03 | 200 | 205.730 | 5.730 |
| 4 | 2200 | 2263.03 | 100 | 102.865 | 2.865 |
| 5 | 2200 | 2263.03 | 100 | 102.865 | 2.865 |
| 6 | 2200 | 2263.03 | 200 | 205.730 | 5.730 |
| 7 | 2200 | 2263.03 | 100 | 102.865 | 2.865 |
Results to date
| round_no | season | mTP | mFP | bTP | bFP | mPrec | bPrec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2016 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 0.625 | 0.625 |
| 2 | 2016 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 0.875 | 0.750 |
| 3 | 2016 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 0.571 | 0.286 |
| 4 | 2016 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 0.375 | 0.875 |
| 5 | 2016 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 0.375 | 0.750 |
| 6 | 2016 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0.875 | 0.500 |
| 7 | 2016 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0.625 | 0.714 |
| 8 | 2016 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 0.875 | 0.875 |
| 9 | 2016 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 0.375 | 0.500 |
NB these are results as posted - remodelling of round 4 and 5 considerably improved these results as explained in Results to date
Conclude
OK, lets hope for a good round 10!