NRL S2016 R10 Results
maxwellAI
19 May 2016
Summary
This round was a better staking round with 4 of 5 bets paying off. The at risk amount for the round (amount of money staked) was $500, however due to the relatively short odds on the majority of games, the profit for the round was a modest $72. The model predicted 5 of 8 games (62.5%) doing better than the bookmaker/market who predicted on 4 of 8 games (50%).
Total profit to date rose to $135.00 which currently represents a 6% return on our initial bank
Predictive Results
Given:
mTP = Models true positives
mFP = Models False positives
mPrec = Models precision (equivalent to accuracy in this case)
bTP = Bookmakers true positives
bFP = Bookmakers False positives
bPrec = Bookmakers precision (equivalent to accuracy in this case)
Table of results
| round_no | season | mTP | mFP | bTP | bFP | mPrec | bPrec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 2016 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0.625 | 0.5 |
| round_no | game_no | tip_text | perceived_odds | implied_odds | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 1 | St George Illawarra Dragons to win against Canberra Raiders while Home | 1.48 | 2.07 | Correctly picked |
| 10 | 2 | South Sydney Rabbitohs to win against Parramatta Eels while Away | 1.76 | 2.65 | Correctly picked |
| 10 | 3 | New Zealand Warriors to win against Penrith Panthers while Away | 1.53 | 2.45 | Incorreclty picked |
| 10 | 4 | North Queensland Cowboys to win against Melbourne Storm while Away | 1.38 | 1.42 | Incorreclty picked |
| 10 | 5 | Brisbane Broncos to win against Manly Sea Eagles while Away | 1.21 | 1.19 | Correctly picked |
| 10 | 6 | Cronulla Sharks to win against Newcastle Knights while Away | 1.07 | 1.18 | Correctly picked |
| 10 | 7 | Canterbury Bulldogs to win against Wests Tigers while Away | 1.25 | 1.28 | Correctly picked |
| 10 | 8 | Sydney Roosters to win against Gold Coast Titans while Away | 1.73 | 1.55 | Incorreclty picked |
Staking results
Initial bank = $2,200
Previous Round Bank = $2,263.03
Current bank = $2,335.00
Total round profit/loss = $71.97
Total profit/loss to date = $135.00
Round Staking results = 4 out of 5 bets correct
Staking results to date = 11 out of 19 bets correct
ROI (Total profit / Initial Bank) = 6.1%
| round | game_no | BET.STATUS | BET.DETAILS | STAKE | RETURN | PROFIT | BANK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 6 | 5 | Win | Penrith Panthers v Nth Queensland Cowboys / Head To Head / Nth Queensland Cowboys @ 1.67 | 50 | 84 | 34 | 2234 |
| 3 | 6 | 5 | Win | Penrith Panthers v Nth Queensland Cowboys / Head To Head / Nth Queensland Cowboys @ 1.67 | 60 | 100 | 74 | 2274 |
| 4 | 7 | 4 | Lose | Canterbury Bulldogs v New Zealand Warriors / Head To Head / Canterbury Bulldogs @ 1.90 | 114 | 0 | -40 | 2160 |
| 5 | 7 | 7 | Win | Wests Tigers v Melbourne Storm / Head To Head / Melbourne Storm @ 1.52 | 107 | 163 | 15 | 2215 |
| 6 | 7 | 8 | Lose | Sydney Roosters v Penrith Panthers / Head To Head / Sydney Roosters @ 2.45 | 110 | 0 | -95 | 2105 |
| 7 | 8 | 4 | Win | Nth Queensland Cowboys v Parramatta Eels / Head To Head / Nth Queensland Cowboys @ 1.38 | 100 | 138 | -57 | 2143 |
| 8 | 8 | 5 | Win | Cronulla Sharks v Penrith Panthers / Head To Head / Cronulla Sharks @ 1.60 | 100 | 160 | 3 | 2203 |
| 9 | 8 | 7 | Lose | St George Illawarra Dragons v Sydney Roosters / Head To Head / Sydney Roosters @ 1.70 | 50 | 0 | 3 | 2203 |
| 10 | 8 | 8 | Win | Melbourne Storm v New Zealand Warriors / Head To Head / Melbourne Storm @ 1.67 | 100 | 167 | 70 | 2270 |
| 11 | 8 | 1,2,3,5,8 | Win | Brisbane Broncos / Canterbury Bulldogs / Canberra Raiders / Cronulla Sharks / Melbourne Storm @ 5.85 | 50 | 293 | 313 | 2513 |
| 12 | 9 | 1 | Lose | South Sydney Rabbitohs v Wests Tigers / Head To Head / South Sydney Rabbitohs @ 1.45 | 100 | 0 | 213 | 2413 |
| 13 | 9 | 2 | Lose | Parramatta Eels v Canterbury Bulldogs / Head To Head / Canterbury Bulldogs @ 1.90 | 100 | 0 | 113 | 2313 |
| 15 | 9 | 6 | Lose | New Zealand Warriors v St George Illawarra Dragons / Head To Head / St George Illawarra Dragons @ 2.45 | 100 | 0 | 13 | 2213 |
| 16 | 9 | 7 | Win | Gold Coast Titans v Melbourne Storm / Head To Head / Melbourne Storm @ 1.50 | 100 | 150 | 63 | 2263 |
| 17 | 10 | 1 | Win | St George Illawarra Dragons v Canberra Raiders / Head To Head / St George Illawarra Dragons @ 2.07 | 100 | 207 | 170 | 2370 |
| 19 | 10 | 4 | Lose | Melbourne Storm v Nth Queensland Cowboys / Head To Head / Nth Queensland Cowboys @ 1.42 | 100 | 0 | 70 | 2270 |
| 20 | 10 | 5 | Win | Manly Sea Eagles v Brisbane Broncos / Head To Head / Brisbane Broncos @ 1.19 | 100 | 119 | 89 | 2289 |
| 21 | 10 | 6 | Win | Newcastle Knights v Cronulla Sharks / Head To Head / Cronulla Sharks @ 1.18 | 100 | 118 | 107 | 2307 |
| 22 | 10 | 7 | Win | Wests Tigers v Canterbury Bulldogs / Head To Head / Canterbury Bulldogs @ 1.28 | 100 | 128 | 135 | 2335 |
For those who have contributed to the initial bank, the break down of your contribution and what you are currently entitled to is below. It’s pretty self explanatory with the main column being ‘entitlement’. This is how much you are entitled given your initial contribution. The gain (in dollars) is the amount of profit/loss you have currently made on your investment
Contributors investment entitlements
| ID | initial_bank | current_bank | cont_amount | entitlement | gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2200 | 2335.03 | 1000 | 1061.377 | 61.377 |
| 2 | 2200 | 2335.03 | 500 | 530.689 | 30.689 |
| 3 | 2200 | 2335.03 | 200 | 212.275 | 12.275 |
| 4 | 2200 | 2335.03 | 100 | 106.138 | 6.138 |
| 5 | 2200 | 2335.03 | 100 | 106.138 | 6.138 |
| 6 | 2200 | 2335.03 | 200 | 212.275 | 12.275 |
| 7 | 2200 | 2335.03 | 100 | 106.138 | 6.138 |
Results to date
| round_no | season | mTP | mFP | bTP | bFP | mPrec | bPrec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2016 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 0.625 | 0.625 |
| 2 | 2016 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 0.875 | 0.750 |
| 3 | 2016 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 0.571 | 0.286 |
| 4 | 2016 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 0.375 | 0.875 |
| 5 | 2016 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 0.375 | 0.750 |
| 6 | 2016 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0.875 | 0.500 |
| 7 | 2016 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0.625 | 0.714 |
| 8 | 2016 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 0.875 | 0.875 |
| 9 | 2016 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 0.375 | 0.500 |
| 10 | 2016 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0.625 | 0.500 |
NB these are results as posted - remodelling of round 4 and 5 considerably improved these results as explained in Results to date
Conclude
OK, lets hope for a good round 11!