NRL S2016 R11 predictions and staking guide
maxwellAI
19 May 2016
Summary
This round, (at current odds) no matches have been identified as good value bets! This is the first time across all rounds this has occurred owing to the models perceived closeness of match outcomes. All matches either have negative expected return or the perceived probability of a team winning is <66%. The model agrees with the bookmaker on all games except Storm vs Eels (the model predicts Storm to win). This match also represents the best ‘value’ (and is in fact the only match with indicated positive expected return), however does not pass our current probability cut off limit for staking.
Keep an eye on the odds for Cronalla Sharks, if this team gets to >1.42 odds then it will become a favorable bet. However I see this as unlikely (in fact the odds are probably more likely to shorten).
Since all other perceived probabilities are <66%, even with odds shift the only game the model would recommend a bet on is the Sharks (assuming they move to >1.42 odds)
Predictions
| game_no | tip_text | perceived_prob | bookie_prob | bookie_odds | agree_with_bookie |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Sydney Rabbitohs to win against St George Illawarra Dragons while Home | 0.511 | 0.690 | 1.45 | Y |
| 2 | North Queensland Cowboys to win against Brisbane Broncos while Home | 0.545 | 0.578 | 1.73 | Y |
| 3 | Wests Tigers to win against Newcastle Knights while Home | 0.613 | 0.741 | 1.35 | Y |
| 4 | New Zealand Warriors to win against Canberra Raiders while Home | 0.549 | 0.578 | 1.73 | Y |
| 5 | Cronulla Sharks to win against Manly Sea Eagles while Home | 0.705 | 0.758 | 1.32 | Y |
| 6 | Penrith Panthers to win against Gold Coast Titans while Home | 0.605 | 0.781 | 1.28 | Y |
| 7 | Canterbury Bulldogs to win against Sydney Roosters while Home | 0.614 | 0.645 | 1.55 | Y |
| 8 | Melbourne Storm to win against Parramatta Eels while Away | 0.569 | 0.500 | 2.00 | N |
NB Bookmaker odds (taken from www.Sportsbet.com.au) as at 19-May-2016
Stake recommendation/s
Recommended bets are those with a perceived probability of > ~0.66 and a positive expected return.
| game_no | tip_text | perceived_prob | bookie_odds | expected_return | recommend_stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Sydney Rabbitohs to win against St George Illawarra Dragons while Home | 0.511 | 1.45 | -0.259 | N |
| 2 | North Queensland Cowboys to win against Brisbane Broncos while Home | 0.545 | 1.73 | -0.058 | N |
| 3 | Wests Tigers to win against Newcastle Knights while Home | 0.613 | 1.35 | -0.172 | N |
| 4 | New Zealand Warriors to win against Canberra Raiders while Home | 0.549 | 1.73 | -0.051 | N |
| 5 | Cronulla Sharks to win against Manly Sea Eagles while Home | 0.705 | 1.32 | -0.069 | N |
| 6 | Penrith Panthers to win against Gold Coast Titans while Home | 0.605 | 1.28 | -0.226 | N |
| 7 | Canterbury Bulldogs to win against Sydney Roosters while Home | 0.614 | 1.55 | -0.049 | N |
| 8 | Melbourne Storm to win against Parramatta Eels while Away | 0.569 | 2.00 | 0.137 | N |
Conclude
Lets hope we have a good round. Good luck contributors!