NRL S2016 R11 Results
maxwellAI
24 May 2016
Summary
This round we didn’t lay any stakes due to poor expected return and low probability scores.
Despite this, the model performed slightly better than the bookmakers and predicted 6 of 8 games (75%). The bookmakers (at time of previous post) actually had the Eels as favorites over the Storm, although leading up to and just before this match the the Storm became market favorites
As a point of interest, assuming I had staked $100 on each game at the odds I posted in the round 11 staking and predictions guide, we would have won a total of $140. We would have had $800 in bet risk and therefore would have made a 17% return on this risk. But as stated previously we currently have a very conservative bet strategy and therefore chose not to bet this round.
Predictive Results
Given:
mTP = Models true positives
mFP = Models False positives
mPrec = Models precision (equivalent to accuracy in this case)
bTP = Bookmakers true positives
bFP = Bookmakers False positives
bPrec = Bookmakers precision (equivalent to accuracy in this case)
Table of results
| round_no | season | mTP | mFP | bTP | bFP | mPrec | bPrec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 2016 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0.75 | 0.625 |
| round_no | game_no | tip_text | perceived_odds | implied_odds | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 1 | South Sydney Rabbitohs to win against St George Illawarra Dragons while Home | 1.96 | 1.45 | Correctly picked |
| 11 | 2 | North Queensland Cowboys to win against Brisbane Broncos while Home | 1.84 | 1.73 | Correctly picked |
| 11 | 3 | Wests Tigers to win against Newcastle Knights while Home | 1.63 | 1.35 | Correctly picked |
| 11 | 4 | New Zealand Warriors to win against Canberra Raiders while Home | 1.82 | 1.73 | Incorreclty picked |
| 11 | 5 | Cronulla Sharks to win against Manly Sea Eagles while Home | 1.42 | 1.32 | Correctly picked |
| 11 | 6 | Penrith Panthers to win against Gold Coast Titans while Home | 1.65 | 1.28 | Incorreclty picked |
| 11 | 7 | Canterbury Bulldogs to win against Sydney Roosters while Home | 1.63 | 1.55 | Correctly picked |
| 11 | 8 | Melbourne Storm to win against Parramatta Eels while Away | 1.76 | 2.00 | Correctly picked |
Staking results
Initial bank = $2,200
Previous Round Bank = $2,263.03
Current bank = $2,335.00
Total round profit/loss = $71.97
Total profit/loss to date = $135.00
Round Staking results = 4 out of 5 bets correct
Staking results to date = 11 out of 19 bets correct
ROI (Total profit / Initial Bank) = 6.1%
| round | game_no | BET.STATUS | BET.DETAILS | STAKE | RETURN | PROFIT | BANK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 6 | 5 | Win | Penrith Panthers v Nth Queensland Cowboys / Head To Head / Nth Queensland Cowboys @ 1.67 | 50 | 84 | 34 | 2234 |
| 3 | 6 | 5 | Win | Penrith Panthers v Nth Queensland Cowboys / Head To Head / Nth Queensland Cowboys @ 1.67 | 60 | 100 | 74 | 2274 |
| 4 | 7 | 4 | Lose | Canterbury Bulldogs v New Zealand Warriors / Head To Head / Canterbury Bulldogs @ 1.90 | 114 | 0 | -40 | 2160 |
| 5 | 7 | 7 | Win | Wests Tigers v Melbourne Storm / Head To Head / Melbourne Storm @ 1.52 | 107 | 163 | 15 | 2215 |
| 6 | 7 | 8 | Lose | Sydney Roosters v Penrith Panthers / Head To Head / Sydney Roosters @ 2.45 | 110 | 0 | -95 | 2105 |
| 7 | 8 | 4 | Win | Nth Queensland Cowboys v Parramatta Eels / Head To Head / Nth Queensland Cowboys @ 1.38 | 100 | 138 | -57 | 2143 |
| 8 | 8 | 5 | Win | Cronulla Sharks v Penrith Panthers / Head To Head / Cronulla Sharks @ 1.60 | 100 | 160 | 3 | 2203 |
| 9 | 8 | 7 | Lose | St George Illawarra Dragons v Sydney Roosters / Head To Head / Sydney Roosters @ 1.70 | 50 | 0 | 3 | 2203 |
| 10 | 8 | 8 | Win | Melbourne Storm v New Zealand Warriors / Head To Head / Melbourne Storm @ 1.67 | 100 | 167 | 70 | 2270 |
| 11 | 8 | 1,2,3,5,8 | Win | Brisbane Broncos / Canterbury Bulldogs / Canberra Raiders / Cronulla Sharks / Melbourne Storm @ 5.85 | 50 | 293 | 313 | 2513 |
| 12 | 9 | 1 | Lose | South Sydney Rabbitohs v Wests Tigers / Head To Head / South Sydney Rabbitohs @ 1.45 | 100 | 0 | 213 | 2413 |
| 13 | 9 | 2 | Lose | Parramatta Eels v Canterbury Bulldogs / Head To Head / Canterbury Bulldogs @ 1.90 | 100 | 0 | 113 | 2313 |
| 15 | 9 | 6 | Lose | New Zealand Warriors v St George Illawarra Dragons / Head To Head / St George Illawarra Dragons @ 2.45 | 100 | 0 | 13 | 2213 |
| 16 | 9 | 7 | Win | Gold Coast Titans v Melbourne Storm / Head To Head / Melbourne Storm @ 1.50 | 100 | 150 | 63 | 2263 |
| 17 | 10 | 1 | Win | St George Illawarra Dragons v Canberra Raiders / Head To Head / St George Illawarra Dragons @ 2.07 | 100 | 207 | 170 | 2370 |
| 19 | 10 | 4 | Lose | Melbourne Storm v Nth Queensland Cowboys / Head To Head / Nth Queensland Cowboys @ 1.42 | 100 | 0 | 70 | 2270 |
| 20 | 10 | 5 | Win | Manly Sea Eagles v Brisbane Broncos / Head To Head / Brisbane Broncos @ 1.19 | 100 | 119 | 89 | 2289 |
| 21 | 10 | 6 | Win | Newcastle Knights v Cronulla Sharks / Head To Head / Cronulla Sharks @ 1.18 | 100 | 118 | 107 | 2307 |
| 22 | 10 | 7 | Win | Wests Tigers v Canterbury Bulldogs / Head To Head / Canterbury Bulldogs @ 1.28 | 100 | 128 | 135 | 2335 |
For those who have contributed to the initial bank, the break down of your contribution and what you are currently entitled to is below. It’s pretty self explanatory with the main column being ‘entitlement’. This is how much you are entitled given your initial contribution. The gain (in dollars) is the amount of profit/loss you have currently made on your investment
Contributors investment entitlements
| ID | initial_bank | current_bank | cont_amount | entitlement | gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2200 | 2335.03 | 1000 | 1061.377 | 61.377 |
| 2 | 2200 | 2335.03 | 500 | 530.689 | 30.689 |
| 3 | 2200 | 2335.03 | 200 | 212.275 | 12.275 |
| 4 | 2200 | 2335.03 | 100 | 106.138 | 6.138 |
| 5 | 2200 | 2335.03 | 100 | 106.138 | 6.138 |
| 6 | 2200 | 2335.03 | 200 | 212.275 | 12.275 |
| 7 | 2200 | 2335.03 | 100 | 106.138 | 6.138 |
Results to date
| round_no | season | mTP | mFP | bTP | bFP | mPrec | bPrec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2016 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 0.625 | 0.625 |
| 2 | 2016 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 0.875 | 0.750 |
| 3 | 2016 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 0.571 | 0.286 |
| 4 | 2016 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 0.375 | 0.875 |
| 5 | 2016 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 0.375 | 0.750 |
| 6 | 2016 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0.875 | 0.500 |
| 7 | 2016 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0.625 | 0.714 |
| 8 | 2016 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 0.875 | 0.875 |
| 9 | 2016 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 0.375 | 0.500 |
| 10 | 2016 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0.625 | 0.500 |
| 11 | 2016 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0.750 | 0.625 |
NB these are results as posted - remodelling of round 4 and 5 considerably improved these results as explained in Results to date
Conclude
OK, lets hope for a good round 12!