NRL S2016 R12-13 Results
maxwellAI
09 June 2016
Summary
Since there were only 4 games in round 12, I thought I would post the results of round 12 & 13 together to save myself some time.
Round 12 was a very poor predictive round (1 out of 4 correct) owing to the models inability to properly account for team changes due to representative matches (State of Origin). However; we did better than the bookmaker (5 out of 7) in round 13 after I put a bit more weight on the team dynamic factor/s to account for player absences due to Origin.
Although retrospectively we know the model did well in round 13, at the time I chose to abstain from betting because some (key) team players were being rested up after Origin.
OK so lets take a detailed look at results for round 12-13 and the results to date:
Predictive Results
Given:
mTP = Models true positives
mFP = Models False positives
mPrec = Models precision (equivalent to accuracy in this case)
bTP = Bookmakers true positives
bFP = Bookmakers False positives
bPrec = Bookmakers precision (equivalent to accuracy in this case)
Table of results
| round_no | season | mTP | mFP | bTP | bFP | mPrec | bPrec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 2016 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.750 |
| 13 | 2016 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0.714 | 0.571 |
| round_no | game_no | tip_text | perceived_odds | implied_odds | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1 | Brisbane Broncos to win against Wests Tigers while Home | 1.12 | 1.25 | Incorreclty picked |
| 12 | 2 | North Queensland Cowboys to win against St George Illawarra Dragons while Away | 1.37 | 2.00 | Incorreclty picked |
| 12 | 3 | Canterbury Bulldogs to win against Canberra Raiders while Away | 1.64 | 2.25 | Incorreclty picked |
| 12 | 4 | Parramatta Eels to win against Newcastle Knights while Away | 1.42 | 1.35 | Correctly picked |
| 13 | 1 | Canberra Raiders to win against Manly Sea Eagles while Home | 1.66 | 1.56 | Correctly picked |
| 13 | 2 | Brisbane Broncos to win against New Zealand Warriors while Away | 1.41 | 1.60 | Incorreclty picked |
| 13 | 3 | North Queensland Cowboys to win against Newcastle Knights while Home | 1.11 | 1.06 | Correctly picked |
| 13 | 4 | Melbourne Storm to win against Penrith Panthers while Home | 1.38 | 1.57 | Correctly picked |
| 13 | 5 | Sydney Roosters to win against Wests Tigers while Home | 1.36 | 1.41 | Correctly picked |
| 13 | 6 | South Sydney Rabbitohs to win against Gold Coast Titans while Home | 1.60 | 1.57 | Incorreclty picked |
| 13 | 7 | Cronulla Sharks to win against Canterbury Bulldogs while Away | 1.88 | 1.91 | Correctly picked |
Staking results
Initial bank = $2,200
Previous Round Bank = $2,263.03
Current bank = $2,335.00
Total round profit/loss = $71.97
Total profit/loss to date = $135.00
Round Staking results = 4 out of 5 bets correct
Staking results to date = 11 out of 19 bets correct
ROI (Total profit / Initial Bank) = 6.1%
| round | game_no | BET.STATUS | BET.DETAILS | STAKE | RETURN | PROFIT | BANK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 6 | 5 | Win | Penrith Panthers v Nth Queensland Cowboys / Head To Head / Nth Queensland Cowboys @ 1.67 | 50 | 84 | 34 | 2234 |
| 3 | 6 | 5 | Win | Penrith Panthers v Nth Queensland Cowboys / Head To Head / Nth Queensland Cowboys @ 1.67 | 60 | 100 | 74 | 2274 |
| 4 | 7 | 4 | Lose | Canterbury Bulldogs v New Zealand Warriors / Head To Head / Canterbury Bulldogs @ 1.90 | 114 | 0 | -40 | 2160 |
| 5 | 7 | 7 | Win | Wests Tigers v Melbourne Storm / Head To Head / Melbourne Storm @ 1.52 | 107 | 163 | 15 | 2215 |
| 6 | 7 | 8 | Lose | Sydney Roosters v Penrith Panthers / Head To Head / Sydney Roosters @ 2.45 | 110 | 0 | -95 | 2105 |
| 7 | 8 | 4 | Win | Nth Queensland Cowboys v Parramatta Eels / Head To Head / Nth Queensland Cowboys @ 1.38 | 100 | 138 | -57 | 2143 |
| 8 | 8 | 5 | Win | Cronulla Sharks v Penrith Panthers / Head To Head / Cronulla Sharks @ 1.60 | 100 | 160 | 3 | 2203 |
| 9 | 8 | 7 | Lose | St George Illawarra Dragons v Sydney Roosters / Head To Head / Sydney Roosters @ 1.70 | 50 | 0 | 3 | 2203 |
| 10 | 8 | 8 | Win | Melbourne Storm v New Zealand Warriors / Head To Head / Melbourne Storm @ 1.67 | 100 | 167 | 70 | 2270 |
| 11 | 8 | 1,2,3,5,8 | Win | Brisbane Broncos / Canterbury Bulldogs / Canberra Raiders / Cronulla Sharks / Melbourne Storm @ 5.85 | 50 | 293 | 313 | 2513 |
| 12 | 9 | 1 | Lose | South Sydney Rabbitohs v Wests Tigers / Head To Head / South Sydney Rabbitohs @ 1.45 | 100 | 0 | 213 | 2413 |
| 13 | 9 | 2 | Lose | Parramatta Eels v Canterbury Bulldogs / Head To Head / Canterbury Bulldogs @ 1.90 | 100 | 0 | 113 | 2313 |
| 15 | 9 | 6 | Lose | New Zealand Warriors v St George Illawarra Dragons / Head To Head / St George Illawarra Dragons @ 2.45 | 100 | 0 | 13 | 2213 |
| 16 | 9 | 7 | Win | Gold Coast Titans v Melbourne Storm / Head To Head / Melbourne Storm @ 1.50 | 100 | 150 | 63 | 2263 |
| 17 | 10 | 1 | Win | St George Illawarra Dragons v Canberra Raiders / Head To Head / St George Illawarra Dragons @ 2.07 | 100 | 207 | 170 | 2370 |
| 19 | 10 | 4 | Lose | Melbourne Storm v Nth Queensland Cowboys / Head To Head / Nth Queensland Cowboys @ 1.42 | 100 | 0 | 70 | 2270 |
| 20 | 10 | 5 | Win | Manly Sea Eagles v Brisbane Broncos / Head To Head / Brisbane Broncos @ 1.19 | 100 | 119 | 89 | 2289 |
| 21 | 10 | 6 | Win | Newcastle Knights v Cronulla Sharks / Head To Head / Cronulla Sharks @ 1.18 | 100 | 118 | 107 | 2307 |
| 22 | 10 | 7 | Win | Wests Tigers v Canterbury Bulldogs / Head To Head / Canterbury Bulldogs @ 1.28 | 100 | 128 | 135 | 2335 |
For those who have contributed to the initial bank, the break down of your contribution and what you are currently entitled to is below. It’s pretty self explanatory with the main column being ‘entitlement’. This is how much you are entitled given your initial contribution. The gain (in dollars) is the amount of profit/loss you have currently made on your investment
Contributors investment entitlements
| ID | initial_bank | current_bank | cont_amount | entitlement | gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2200 | 2335.03 | 1000 | 1061.377 | 61.377 |
| 2 | 2200 | 2335.03 | 500 | 530.689 | 30.689 |
| 3 | 2200 | 2335.03 | 200 | 212.275 | 12.275 |
| 4 | 2200 | 2335.03 | 100 | 106.138 | 6.138 |
| 5 | 2200 | 2335.03 | 100 | 106.138 | 6.138 |
| 6 | 2200 | 2335.03 | 200 | 212.275 | 12.275 |
| 7 | 2200 | 2335.03 | 100 | 106.138 | 6.138 |
Results to date
| round_no | season | mTP | mFP | bTP | bFP | mPrec | bPrec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2016 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 0.625 | 0.625 |
| 2 | 2016 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 0.875 | 0.750 |
| 3 | 2016 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 0.571 | 0.286 |
| 4 | 2016 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 0.375 | 0.875 |
| 5 | 2016 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 0.375 | 0.750 |
| 6 | 2016 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0.875 | 0.500 |
| 7 | 2016 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0.625 | 0.714 |
| 8 | 2016 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 0.875 | 0.875 |
| 9 | 2016 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 0.375 | 0.500 |
| 10 | 2016 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0.625 | 0.500 |
| 11 | 2016 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0.750 | 0.625 |
| 12 | 2016 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.750 |
| 13 | 2016 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0.714 | 0.571 |
NB these are results as posted - remodelling of round 4 and 5 considerably improved these results as explained in Results to date
The models average overall precision to date is 0.609 vs the bookmakers precision of 0.64.
Conclude
OK, lets hope for a good round 14!