NRL S2016 R12 predictions and staking guide
maxwellAI
24 May 2016
Summary
There are only four matches this round in the lead up to origin next week.
This week the model has identified two matches as good value bets (Broncos to win against Tigers and Cowboys to win against St George). Additionally the model is in disagreement with the bookmaker on two games (Cowboys vs St George and Bulldogs vs Canberra). I am aware that Cowboys and Broncos are missing a lot of (key) players this round due to pending origin matches, however the model still thinks they have a strong chance of winning.
Even though Broncos are at short odds (1.25) the model indicates that we still have positive expected return (our probability that Broncos will win is higher than the probability of the offered odds)
For St George vs Cowboys, currently St George are favorites to win over the Cowboys, however the model predicts the Cowboys as having >70% of winning. This is the best value bet meeting our staking probability threshold (>66%)
Another ‘good’ value bet with high expected return i Bulldogs vs Canberra, however this match doesn’t quite meet our staking probability requirements.
Predictions
| game_no | tip_text | perceived_prob | bookie_prob | bookie_odds | agree_with_bookie |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brisbane Broncos to win against Wests Tigers while Home | 0.897 | 0.800 | 1.25 | Y |
| 2 | North Queensland Cowboys to win against St George Illawarra Dragons while Away | 0.730 | 0.500 | 2.00 | N |
| 3 | Canterbury Bulldogs to win against Canberra Raiders while Away | 0.610 | 0.444 | 2.25 | N |
| 4 | Parramatta Eels to win against Newcastle Knights while Away | 0.703 | 0.741 | 1.35 | Y |
NB Bookmaker odds (taken from www.Sportsbet.com.au) as at 24-May-2016
Stake recommendation/s
Recommended bets are those with a perceived probability of > ~0.66 and a positive expected return.
| game_no | tip_text | perceived_prob | bookie_odds | expected_return | recommend_stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brisbane Broncos to win against Wests Tigers while Home | 0.897 | 1.25 | 0.121 | Y |
| 2 | North Queensland Cowboys to win against St George Illawarra Dragons while Away | 0.730 | 2.00 | 0.460 | Y |
| 3 | Canterbury Bulldogs to win against Canberra Raiders while Away | 0.610 | 2.25 | 0.372 | N |
| 4 | Parramatta Eels to win against Newcastle Knights while Away | 0.703 | 1.35 | -0.051 | N |
Conclude
Lets hope we have a good round. Good luck contributors!