NRL S2016 R13 prediction and staking guide
maxwellAI
02 June 2016
Summary
NB!! There is currently high volatility in team player lists due to State of Origin matches. During this period there is a self imposed betting ban. Last round was an extremely poor predictive and staking round (1/4 predictive accuracy and 2 staking loss’) indicating the model is not sufficiently catering for team changes. While I have tweaked some model parameters in attempt to mitigate this, I don’t have high confidence team dynamic is accurately reflected in the model.
This round all tips are (currently) in line with bookmaker predictions. However, there is an expectation of low predictive performance due to change in team and match dynamics. Although I wont be staking until team volatility has stabilized, I have supplied preferred bets based on my usual parameters and assuming normal circumstances. Two bets are identified as good value (Storm v Panthers & Roosters v Tigers).
Predictions
| game_no | tip_text | perceived_prob | bookie_prob | bookie_odds | agree_with_bookie |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Canberra Raiders to win against Manly Sea Eagles while Home | 0.603 | 0.641 | 1.56 | Y |
| 2 | Brisbane Broncos to win against New Zealand Warriors while Away | 0.708 | 0.625 | 1.60 | Y |
| 3 | North Queensland Cowboys to win against Newcastle Knights while Home | 0.897 | 0.943 | 1.06 | Y |
| 4 | Melbourne Storm to win against Penrith Panthers while Home | 0.726 | 0.637 | 1.57 | Y |
| 5 | Sydney Roosters to win against Wests Tigers while Home | 0.738 | 0.709 | 1.41 | Y |
| 6 | South Sydney Rabbitohs to win against Gold Coast Titans while Home | 0.624 | 0.637 | 1.57 | Y |
| 7 | Cronulla Sharks to win against Canterbury Bulldogs while Away | 0.531 | 0.524 | 1.91 | Y |
NB Bookmaker odds (taken from www.Sportsbet.com.au) as at 31-May-2016
Stake recommendation/s
Recommended bets are those with a perceived probability of > ~0.66 and a positive expected return.
| game_no | tip_text | perceived_prob | bookie_odds | expected_return | recommend_stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Canberra Raiders to win against Manly Sea Eagles while Home | 0.603 | 1.56 | -0.059 | N |
| 2 | Brisbane Broncos to win against New Zealand Warriors while Away | 0.708 | 1.60 | 0.133 | Y |
| 3 | North Queensland Cowboys to win against Newcastle Knights while Home | 0.897 | 1.06 | -0.049 | N |
| 4 | Melbourne Storm to win against Penrith Panthers while Home | 0.726 | 1.57 | 0.140 | Y |
| 5 | Sydney Roosters to win against Wests Tigers while Home | 0.738 | 1.41 | 0.040 | Y |
| 6 | South Sydney Rabbitohs to win against Gold Coast Titans while Home | 0.624 | 1.57 | -0.021 | N |
| 7 | Cronulla Sharks to win against Canterbury Bulldogs while Away | 0.531 | 1.91 | 0.014 | N |
Conclude
Lets see how the model performs this round!