NRL S2016 R14-17 Results
maxwellAI
09 June 2016
Summary
Hi guys, I’ve been a bit slack on posting results each week, but unfortunately we havn’t had much action regarding betting due to origin matches and low probability picks.
In any-case below are the R14-17 results and overall predictive results to date.
Teh model performed poorly across the two bye weeks leading into origin (as expected) and has been primary reason for betting abstinence.
The model improved moving into round 16 and overall is sitting at ~60% since across all rounds.
Going forward I am probably going to just keep a sticky post updated with results to date as posting results by week is quite a bit to keep up with.
Predictive Results
Given:
mTP = Models true positives
mFP = Models False positives
mPrec = Models precision (equivalent to accuracy in this case)
bTP = Bookmakers true positives
bFP = Bookmakers False positives
bPrec = Bookmakers precision (equivalent to accuracy in this case)
Table of results
| round_no | season | mTP | mFP | bTP | bFP | mPrec | bPrec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 2016 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0.625 | 0.714 |
| 15 | 2016 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0.250 | 1.000 |
| 16 | 2016 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0.714 | 1.000 |
| 17 | 2016 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 0.625 | 0.750 |
| round_no | game_no | tip_text | perceived_odds | implied_odds | result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 1 | Brisbane Broncos to win against Canberra Raiders while Home | 1.35 | 1.32 | Correctly picked |
| 14 | 2 | South Sydney Rabbitohs to win against Wests Tigers while Away | 1.67 | 1.58 | Incorreclty picked |
| 14 | 3 | New Zealand Warriors to win against Newcastle Knights while Away | 1.54 | 1.32 | Correctly picked |
| 14 | 4 | Parramatta Eels to win against Gold Coast Titans while Home | 1.69 | 2.15 | Correctly picked |
| 14 | 5 | Melbourne Storm to win against Sydney Roosters while Away | 1.74 | 1.42 | Correctly picked |
| 14 | 6 | Manly Sea Eagles to win against Penrith Panthers while Home | 1.75 | 2.75 | Incorreclty picked |
| 14 | 7 | Canterbury Bulldogs to win against St George Illawarra Dragons while Away | 1.97 | 1.38 | Correctly picked |
| 14 | 8 | North Queensland Cowboys to win against Cronulla Sharks while Away | 1.93 | 1.92 | Incorreclty picked |
| 15 | 1 | South Sydney Rabbitohs to win against Parramatta Eels while Home | 1.92 | 2.00 | Incorreclty picked |
| 15 | 2 | Melbourne Storm to win against St George Illawarra Dragons while Away | 1.58 | 2.65 | Incorreclty picked |
| 15 | 3 | Sydney Roosters to win against New Zealand Warriors while Away | 1.87 | 2.60 | Incorreclty picked |
| 15 | 4 | Gold Coast Titans to win against Manly Sea Eagles while Home | 1.85 | 1.50 | Correctly picked |
| 16 | 1 | Penrith Panthers to win against South Sydney Rabbitohs while Home | 1.88 | 1.35 | Correctly picked |
| 16 | 2 | St George Illawarra Dragons to win against Newcastle Knights while Away | 1.36 | 1.38 | Correctly picked |
| 16 | 3 | Cronulla Sharks to win against New Zealand Warriors while Home | 1.34 | 1.35 | Correctly picked |
| 16 | 4 | Brisbane Broncos to win against Canterbury Bulldogs while Away | 1.75 | 1.92 | Incorreclty picked |
| 16 | 5 | Gold Coast Titans to win against Canberra Raiders while Home | 1.93 | 2.05 | Incorreclty picked |
| 16 | 6 | Melbourne Storm to win against Wests Tigers while Home | 1.29 | 1.45 | Correctly picked |
| 16 | 7 | North Queensland Cowboys to win against Manly Sea Eagles while Home | 1.24 | 1.15 | Correctly picked |
| 17 | 1 | Canterbury Bulldogs to win against Sydney Roosters while Away | 1.89 | 1.50 | Correctly picked |
| 17 | 2 | Brisbane Broncos to win against Melbourne Storm while Home | 1.88 | 1.60 | Incorreclty picked |
| 17 | 3 | New Zealand Warriors to win against Gold Coast Titans while Home | 1.81 | 1.36 | Correctly picked |
| 17 | 4 | Penrith Panthers to win against Wests Tigers while Away | 1.84 | 1.62 | Incorreclty picked |
| 17 | 5 | Cronulla Sharks to win against Parramatta Eels while Home | 1.40 | 1.32 | Correctly picked |
| 17 | 6 | Canberra Raiders to win against Newcastle Knights while Home | 1.21 | 1.10 | Correctly picked |
| 17 | 7 | North Queensland Cowboys to win against South Sydney Rabbitohs while Away | 1.43 | 1.35 | Correctly picked |
| 17 | 8 | St George Illawarra Dragons to win against Manly Sea Eagles while Away | 1.88 | 2.35 | Incorreclty picked |
Staking results
Initial bank = $2,200
Previous Round Bank = $2,263.03
Current bank = $2,335.00
Total round profit/loss = $71.97
Total profit/loss to date = $135.00
Round Staking results = 4 out of 5 bets correct
Staking results to date = 11 out of 19 bets correct
ROI (Total profit / Initial Bank) = 6.1%
| round | game_no | BET.STATUS | BET.DETAILS | STAKE | RETURN | PROFIT | BANK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 6 | 5 | Win | Penrith Panthers v Nth Queensland Cowboys / Head To Head / Nth Queensland Cowboys @ 1.67 | 50 | 84 | 34 | 2234 |
| 3 | 6 | 5 | Win | Penrith Panthers v Nth Queensland Cowboys / Head To Head / Nth Queensland Cowboys @ 1.67 | 60 | 100 | 74 | 2274 |
| 4 | 7 | 4 | Lose | Canterbury Bulldogs v New Zealand Warriors / Head To Head / Canterbury Bulldogs @ 1.90 | 114 | 0 | -40 | 2160 |
| 5 | 7 | 7 | Win | Wests Tigers v Melbourne Storm / Head To Head / Melbourne Storm @ 1.52 | 107 | 163 | 15 | 2215 |
| 6 | 7 | 8 | Lose | Sydney Roosters v Penrith Panthers / Head To Head / Sydney Roosters @ 2.45 | 110 | 0 | -95 | 2105 |
| 7 | 8 | 4 | Win | Nth Queensland Cowboys v Parramatta Eels / Head To Head / Nth Queensland Cowboys @ 1.38 | 100 | 138 | -57 | 2143 |
| 8 | 8 | 5 | Win | Cronulla Sharks v Penrith Panthers / Head To Head / Cronulla Sharks @ 1.60 | 100 | 160 | 3 | 2203 |
| 9 | 8 | 7 | Lose | St George Illawarra Dragons v Sydney Roosters / Head To Head / Sydney Roosters @ 1.70 | 50 | 0 | 3 | 2203 |
| 10 | 8 | 8 | Win | Melbourne Storm v New Zealand Warriors / Head To Head / Melbourne Storm @ 1.67 | 100 | 167 | 70 | 2270 |
| 11 | 8 | 1,2,3,5,8 | Win | Brisbane Broncos / Canterbury Bulldogs / Canberra Raiders / Cronulla Sharks / Melbourne Storm @ 5.85 | 50 | 293 | 313 | 2513 |
| 12 | 9 | 1 | Lose | South Sydney Rabbitohs v Wests Tigers / Head To Head / South Sydney Rabbitohs @ 1.45 | 100 | 0 | 213 | 2413 |
| 13 | 9 | 2 | Lose | Parramatta Eels v Canterbury Bulldogs / Head To Head / Canterbury Bulldogs @ 1.90 | 100 | 0 | 113 | 2313 |
| 15 | 9 | 6 | Lose | New Zealand Warriors v St George Illawarra Dragons / Head To Head / St George Illawarra Dragons @ 2.45 | 100 | 0 | 13 | 2213 |
| 16 | 9 | 7 | Win | Gold Coast Titans v Melbourne Storm / Head To Head / Melbourne Storm @ 1.50 | 100 | 150 | 63 | 2263 |
| 17 | 10 | 1 | Win | St George Illawarra Dragons v Canberra Raiders / Head To Head / St George Illawarra Dragons @ 2.07 | 100 | 207 | 170 | 2370 |
| 19 | 10 | 4 | Lose | Melbourne Storm v Nth Queensland Cowboys / Head To Head / Nth Queensland Cowboys @ 1.42 | 100 | 0 | 70 | 2270 |
| 20 | 10 | 5 | Win | Manly Sea Eagles v Brisbane Broncos / Head To Head / Brisbane Broncos @ 1.19 | 100 | 119 | 89 | 2289 |
| 21 | 10 | 6 | Win | Newcastle Knights v Cronulla Sharks / Head To Head / Cronulla Sharks @ 1.18 | 100 | 118 | 107 | 2307 |
| 22 | 10 | 7 | Win | Wests Tigers v Canterbury Bulldogs / Head To Head / Canterbury Bulldogs @ 1.28 | 100 | 128 | 135 | 2335 |
For those who have contributed to the initial bank, the break down of your contribution and what you are currently entitled to is below. It’s pretty self explanatory with the main column being ‘entitlement’. This is how much you are entitled given your initial contribution. The gain (in dollars) is the amount of profit/loss you have currently made on your investment
Contributors investment entitlements
| ID | initial_bank | current_bank | cont_amount | entitlement | gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2200 | 2335.03 | 1000 | 1061.377 | 61.377 |
| 2 | 2200 | 2335.03 | 500 | 530.689 | 30.689 |
| 3 | 2200 | 2335.03 | 200 | 212.275 | 12.275 |
| 4 | 2200 | 2335.03 | 100 | 106.138 | 6.138 |
| 5 | 2200 | 2335.03 | 100 | 106.138 | 6.138 |
| 6 | 2200 | 2335.03 | 200 | 212.275 | 12.275 |
| 7 | 2200 | 2335.03 | 100 | 106.138 | 6.138 |
Results to date
| round_no | season | mTP | mFP | bTP | bFP | mPrec | bPrec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2016 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 0.625 | 0.625 |
| 2 | 2016 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 0.875 | 0.750 |
| 3 | 2016 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 0.571 | 0.286 |
| 4 | 2016 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 0.375 | 0.875 |
| 5 | 2016 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 0.375 | 0.750 |
| 6 | 2016 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0.875 | 0.500 |
| 7 | 2016 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0.625 | 0.714 |
| 8 | 2016 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 0.875 | 0.875 |
| 9 | 2016 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 0.375 | 0.500 |
| 10 | 2016 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0.625 | 0.500 |
| 11 | 2016 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0.750 | 0.625 |
| 12 | 2016 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.750 |
| 13 | 2016 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0.714 | 0.571 |
| 14 | 2016 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0.625 | 0.714 |
| 15 | 2016 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0.250 | 1.000 |
| 16 | 2016 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0.714 | 1.000 |
| 17 | 2016 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 0.625 | 0.750 |
NB these are results as posted - remodelling of round 4 and 5 considerably improved these results as explained in Results to date
The models average overall precision to date is 0.596 vs the bookmakers precision of 0.693.
Conclude
OK, lets hope for a good round 14!