NRL S2016 R14 prediction and staking guide
maxwellAI
09 June 2016
Summary
This week (most) of the teams are back at full strength after player layups due to Origin. Predictions this week are mostly in alignment with the bookmaker/market with the exception of:
- Eels v Titans. The model indicates a 59% chance that Eels will win vs the bookmakers 46%
and
- Eagles vs Penrith. The model indicates a 57% chance that Eels will win vs the bookmakers 36%
The largest discrepancy between the model and bookmaker is in the Eagles penrith game.
All games which are in agreement with the bookmaker have negative expected return (indicating poor value bets) and the two games above which are in disagreement with the bookmakers do not meet our probability threshold for wagers (0.66), so again no bets this week!
Predictions
| game_no | tip_text | perceived_prob | bookie_prob | bookie_odds | agree_with_bookie |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brisbane Broncos to win against Canberra Raiders while Home | 0.742 | 0.758 | 1.32 | Y |
| 2 | South Sydney Rabbitohs to win against Wests Tigers while Away | 0.600 | 0.633 | 1.58 | Y |
| 3 | New Zealand Warriors to win against Newcastle Knights while Away | 0.650 | 0.758 | 1.32 | Y |
| 4 | Parramatta Eels to win against Gold Coast Titans while Home | 0.590 | 0.465 | 2.15 | N |
| 5 | Melbourne Storm to win against Sydney Roosters while Away | 0.575 | 0.704 | 1.42 | Y |
| 6 | Manly Sea Eagles to win against Penrith Panthers while Home | 0.571 | 0.364 | 2.75 | N |
| 7 | Canterbury Bulldogs to win against St George Illawarra Dragons while Away | 0.507 | 0.725 | 1.38 | Y |
| 8 | North Queensland Cowboys to win against Cronulla Sharks while Away | 0.517 | 0.521 | 1.92 | Y |
NB Bookmaker odds (taken from www.Sportsbet.com.au) as at 09-June-2016
Stake recommendation/s
Recommended bets are those with a perceived probability of > ~0.66 and a positive expected return.
| game_no | tip_text | perceived_prob | bookie_odds | expected_return | recommend_stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brisbane Broncos to win against Canberra Raiders while Home | 0.742 | 1.32 | -0.020 | N |
| 2 | South Sydney Rabbitohs to win against Wests Tigers while Away | 0.600 | 1.58 | -0.052 | N |
| 3 | New Zealand Warriors to win against Newcastle Knights while Away | 0.650 | 1.32 | -0.143 | N |
| 4 | Parramatta Eels to win against Gold Coast Titans while Home | 0.590 | 2.15 | 0.269 | N |
| 5 | Melbourne Storm to win against Sydney Roosters while Away | 0.575 | 1.42 | -0.184 | N |
| 6 | Manly Sea Eagles to win against Penrith Panthers while Home | 0.571 | 2.75 | 0.570 | N |
| 7 | Canterbury Bulldogs to win against St George Illawarra Dragons while Away | 0.507 | 1.38 | -0.300 | N |
| 8 | North Queensland Cowboys to win against Cronulla Sharks while Away | 0.517 | 1.92 | -0.007 | N |
Conclude
Lets see how the model performs this round!