NRL S2016 R15 Predictions and Staking Guide

Kane Maxwell Tips-predictions

NRL S2016 R15 prediction and staking guide

Summary

There are only four games this week due to byes leading up to State of Origin game 2 (kick-off 22-June). There are three games which disagree with the bookmaker this week; however the majority of win predictions are modest (<55% chance of win).

The exception is Storm vs Dragons - the bookmaker/market has Dragons as strong favorites (~1.52 back odds) whereas the model has Storm as moderate-strong favorites (63% chance of winning (equivalent to 1.58 odds)). The reason Dragons are strong favorites according to the market is that Storm have two star players out this week (Cameron Smith and Cooper Cronk are OUT due to origin (playing for Qld)). Although the model attempts to accommodate for team dynamic changes, the model obviously has less weight on this variable (players) than the market.

The other (strong) model vs bookmaker disagreement is Roosters vs Warriors. The model favors Roosters, despite them being down four players this week (Abraham Papalii, Aidan Guerra,Blake Ferguson & Eloni Vunakece).

As stated in my last round-up post, I am not completely confident that the model is accounting for large team changes especially around origin, so I am choosing to abstain from bets this round (the model hasn’t indicated any good value bets this round in any case)

As a point of interest, below is the line up for Origin game 2:

Line up for Origin (Source)

QLD:

  1. Darius Boyd, 2. Corey Oates, 3. Greg Inglis, 4. Justin O’Neill, 5. Dane Gagai, 6. Johnathan Thurston, 7. Cooper Cronk, 8. Matt Scott, 9. Cameron Smith (c), 10. Josh McGuire, 11. Matt Gillett, 12. Sam Thaiday, 13. Corey Parker

Interchange: 14. Michael Morgan, 15. Jacob Lillyman, 16. Aidan Guerra, 17. Josh Papalii, 18th man. Ethan Lowe

NSW

  1. Matt Moylan, 2. Blake Ferguson, 3. Michael Jennings, 4. Josh Morris, 5. Josh Mansour, 6. James Maloney, 7. Adam Reynolds, 8. Aaron Woods, 9. Robbie Farah, 10. James Tamou, 15. Greg Bird, 12. Josh Jackson, 13. Paul Gallen

Interchange: 14. Dylan Walker, 18. Tyson Frizell, 16. David Klemmer, 17. Andrew Fifita

Now lets take a look at this weeks predictions in detail:

Predictions

game_no tip_text perceived_prob bookie_prob bookie_odds agree_with_bookie
1 South Sydney Rabbitohs to win against Parramatta Eels while Home 0.521 0.500 2.00 N
2 Melbourne Storm to win against St George Illawarra Dragons while Away 0.631 0.377 2.65 N
3 Sydney Roosters to win against New Zealand Warriors while Away 0.534 0.385 2.60 N
4 Gold Coast Titans to win against Manly Sea Eagles while Home 0.540 0.667 1.50 Y

NB Bookmaker odds (taken from www.Sportsbet.com.au) as at 14-June-2016

Stake recommendation/s

Recommended bets are those with a perceived probability of > ~0.66 and a positive expected return.

game_no tip_text perceived_prob bookie_odds expected_return recommend_stake
1 South Sydney Rabbitohs to win against Parramatta Eels while Home 0.521 2.00 0.042 N
2 Melbourne Storm to win against St George Illawarra Dragons while Away 0.631 2.65 0.672 N
3 Sydney Roosters to win against New Zealand Warriors while Away 0.534 2.60 0.389 N
4 Gold Coast Titans to win against Manly Sea Eagles while Home 0.540 1.50 -0.191 N

Conclude

Lets see how the model performs this round!