NRL S2016 R15 prediction and staking guide
maxwellAI
23 June 2016
Summary
The majority of games this week are in line with the bookmakers and a few games are tipped as being good value bets.
I need to have a hard look at the team lists this week (as some players will be resting up after origin) to determine if I will take action on the recommended stakes. I’ll keep you posted:
Predictions
| game_no | tip_text | perceived_prob | bookie_prob | bookie_odds | agree_with_bookie |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penrith Panthers to win against South Sydney Rabbitohs while Home | 0.532 | 0.741 | 1.35 | Y |
| 2 | St George Illawarra Dragons to win against Newcastle Knights while Away | 0.736 | 0.725 | 1.38 | Y |
| 3 | Cronulla Sharks to win against New Zealand Warriors while Home | 0.745 | 0.741 | 1.35 | Y |
| 4 | Brisbane Broncos to win against Canterbury Bulldogs while Away | 0.570 | 0.521 | 1.92 | Y |
| 5 | Gold Coast Titans to win against Canberra Raiders while Home | 0.518 | 0.488 | 2.05 | N |
| 6 | Melbourne Storm to win against Wests Tigers while Home | 0.778 | 0.690 | 1.45 | Y |
| 7 | North Queensland Cowboys to win against Manly Sea Eagles while Home | 0.804 | 0.870 | 1.15 | Y |
NB Bookmaker odds (taken from www.Sportsbet.com.au) as at 23-June-2016
Stake recommendation/s
Recommended bets are those with a perceived probability of > ~0.66 and a positive expected return.
| game_no | tip_text | perceived_prob | bookie_odds | expected_return | recommend_stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penrith Panthers to win against South Sydney Rabbitohs while Home | 0.532 | 1.35 | -0.281 | N |
| 2 | St George Illawarra Dragons to win against Newcastle Knights while Away | 0.736 | 1.38 | 0.016 | Y |
| 3 | Cronulla Sharks to win against New Zealand Warriors while Home | 0.745 | 1.35 | 0.006 | Y |
| 4 | Brisbane Broncos to win against Canterbury Bulldogs while Away | 0.570 | 1.92 | 0.095 | N |
| 5 | Gold Coast Titans to win against Canberra Raiders while Home | 0.518 | 2.05 | 0.062 | N |
| 6 | Melbourne Storm to win against Wests Tigers while Home | 0.778 | 1.45 | 0.128 | Y |
| 7 | North Queensland Cowboys to win against Manly Sea Eagles while Home | 0.804 | 1.15 | -0.075 | N |
Conclude
Lets see how the model performs this round!