NRL S2016 R19 prediction and staking guide
maxwellAI
15 July 2016
Summary
Sorry for the belated tips! I had massive server issues yesterday which prevented me from running the model!.
We are finally over the Origin and expect to return to less volatile teams going forward from round 20 which means we should hopefully see some stake recommendations come through which we can act on!
The model (incorrectly) tipped St George to win yesterday likely owing to late change to team list/s which was not factored in (Josh Dugan and Benji Marshall were OUT after being named as IN on the initial (July-12) teams list).
This round, the Sharks to win represent the best ‘value’ bet
Here are the remaining tips for the round:
Predictions
| game_no | tip_text | perceived_prob | bookie_prob | bookie_odds | agree_with_bookie |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St George Illawarra Dragons to win against Gold Coast Titans while Home | 0.602 | 0.455 | 2.20 | N |
| 2 | Manly Sea Eagles to win against New Zealand Warriors while Home | 0.523 | 0.444 | 2.25 | N |
| 3 | Brisbane Broncos to win against South Sydney Rabbitohs while Away | 0.622 | 0.667 | 1.50 | Y |
| 4 | Melbourne Storm to win against Newcastle Knights while Away | 0.865 | 0.893 | 1.12 | Y |
| 5 | Penrith Panthers to win against Parramatta Eels while Home | 0.504 | 0.769 | 1.30 | Y |
| 6 | Cronulla Sharks to win against Sydney Roosters while Away | 0.677 | 0.654 | 1.53 | Y |
NB Bookmaker odds (taken from www.Sportsbet.com.au) as at 15-July-2016
Stake recommendation/s
Recommended bets are those with a perceived probability of > ~0.66 and a positive expected return.
NB bye weeks are highly volatile and I expect the model will perform poorly this week
| game_no | tip_text | perceived_prob | bookie_odds | expected_return | recommend_stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St George Illawarra Dragons to win against Gold Coast Titans while Home | 0.602 | 2.20 | 0.325 | N |
| 2 | Manly Sea Eagles to win against New Zealand Warriors while Home | 0.523 | 2.25 | 0.176 | N |
| 3 | Brisbane Broncos to win against South Sydney Rabbitohs while Away | 0.622 | 1.50 | -0.067 | N |
| 4 | Melbourne Storm to win against Newcastle Knights while Away | 0.865 | 1.12 | -0.031 | N |
| 5 | Penrith Panthers to win against Parramatta Eels while Home | 0.504 | 1.30 | -0.344 | N |
| 6 | Cronulla Sharks to win against Sydney Roosters while Away | 0.677 | 1.53 | 0.036 | Y |
Conclude
Lets see how the model performs this round!