NRL S2016 R19 prediction and staking guide
maxwellAI
21 July 2016
Summary
This week we have 6 of 8 predictions in agreement with the current bookmaker odds; exceptions being games 7 & 8 where the model is tipping St George to beat West Tigers and the Rabbits to win at home!
Predictions
| game_no | tip_text | perceived_prob | bookie_prob | bookie_odds | agree_with_bookie |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | North Queensland Cowboys to win against Canterbury Bulldogs while Home | 0.673 | 0.685 | 1.46 | Y |
| 2 | Brisbane Broncos to win against Penrith Panthers while Home | 0.719 | 0.769 | 1.30 | Y |
| 3 | Canberra Raiders to win against New Zealand Warriors while Home | 0.606 | 0.690 | 1.45 | Y |
| 4 | Gold Coast Titans to win against Parramatta Eels while Home | 0.505 | 0.704 | 1.42 | Y |
| 5 | Melbourne Storm to win against Sydney Roosters while Home | 0.760 | 0.794 | 1.26 | Y |
| 6 | Cronulla Sharks to win against Newcastle Knights while Home | 0.918 | 0.943 | 1.06 | Y |
| 7 | St George Illawarra Dragons to win against Wests Tigers while Home | 0.644 | 0.392 | 2.55 | N |
| 8 | South Sydney Rabbitohs to win against Manly Sea Eagles while Home | 0.570 | 0.472 | 2.12 | N |
NB Bookmaker odds (taken from www.Sportsbet.com.au) as at 21-July-2016
Stake recommendation/s
Recommended bets are those with a perceived probability of > ~0.66 and a positive expected return.
NB bye weeks are highly volatile and I expect the model will perform poorly this week
| game_no | tip_text | perceived_prob | bookie_odds | expected_return | recommend_stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | North Queensland Cowboys to win against Canterbury Bulldogs while Home | 0.673 | 1.46 | -0.018 | N |
| 2 | Brisbane Broncos to win against Penrith Panthers while Home | 0.719 | 1.30 | -0.065 | N |
| 3 | Canberra Raiders to win against New Zealand Warriors while Home | 0.606 | 1.45 | -0.122 | N |
| 4 | Gold Coast Titans to win against Parramatta Eels while Home | 0.505 | 1.42 | -0.282 | N |
| 5 | Melbourne Storm to win against Sydney Roosters while Home | 0.760 | 1.26 | -0.042 | N |
| 6 | Cronulla Sharks to win against Newcastle Knights while Home | 0.918 | 1.06 | -0.027 | N |
| 7 | St George Illawarra Dragons to win against Wests Tigers while Home | 0.644 | 2.55 | 0.642 | N |
| 8 | South Sydney Rabbitohs to win against Manly Sea Eagles while Home | 0.570 | 2.12 | 0.208 | N |
Conclude
Lets see how the model performs this round!