NRL S2016 R21 prediction and staking guide
maxwellAI
28 July 2016
Summary
This week we have 6 of 8 predictions in agreement with the current bookmaker odds; exceptions being games 5 & 6 where the model is tipping North Queensland Cowboys to win against Melbourne Storm and Raiders and Parramatta Eels to win against Wests Tigers to beat their respective opponents! Please note the game ordering is a little screwy - and the games aren’t in correct order of play this round! Only noticed late this evening - working on a fix!
Predictions
| game_no | tip_text | perceived_prob | bookie_prob | bookie_odds | agree_with_bookie |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Canterbury Bulldogs to win against St George Illawarra Dragons while Home | 0.669 | 0.870 | 1.15 | Y |
| 2 | Cronulla Sharks to win against Gold Coast Titans while Away | 0.684 | 0.690 | 1.45 | Y |
| 3 | Manly Sea Eagles to win against Newcastle Knights while Home | 0.813 | 0.909 | 1.10 | Y |
| 4 | New Zealand Warriors to win against Penrith Panthers while Home | 0.557 | 0.578 | 1.73 | Y |
| 5 | North Queensland Cowboys to win against Melbourne Storm while Home | 0.595 | 0.476 | 2.10 | N |
| 6 | Parramatta Eels to win against Wests Tigers while Home | 0.556 | 0.339 | 2.95 | N |
| 7 | Canberra Raiders to win against South Sydney Rabbitohs while Away | 0.530 | 0.714 | 1.40 | Y |
| 8 | Brisbane Broncos to win against Sydney Roosters while Away | 0.607 | 0.521 | 1.92 | Y |
NB Bookmaker odds (taken from www.Sportsbet.com.au) as at 28-July-2016
Stake recommendation/s
Recommended bets are those with a perceived probability of > ~0.66 and a positive expected return.
| game_no | tip_text | perceived_prob | bookie_odds | expected_return | recommend_stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Canterbury Bulldogs to win against St George Illawarra Dragons while Home | 0.669 | 1.15 | -0.231 | N |
| 2 | Cronulla Sharks to win against Gold Coast Titans while Away | 0.684 | 1.45 | -0.008 | N |
| 3 | Manly Sea Eagles to win against Newcastle Knights while Home | 0.813 | 1.10 | -0.106 | N |
| 4 | New Zealand Warriors to win against Penrith Panthers while Home | 0.557 | 1.73 | -0.036 | N |
| 5 | North Queensland Cowboys to win against Melbourne Storm while Home | 0.595 | 2.10 | 0.250 | N |
| 6 | Parramatta Eels to win against Wests Tigers while Home | 0.556 | 2.95 | 0.640 | N |
| 7 | Canberra Raiders to win against South Sydney Rabbitohs while Away | 0.530 | 1.40 | -0.258 | N |
| 8 | Brisbane Broncos to win against Sydney Roosters while Away | 0.607 | 1.92 | 0.165 | N |
Conclude
Lets see how the model performs this round!