NRL S2016 R22 prediction and staking guide
maxwellAI
4 August 2016
Summary
This week all tips are in agreement with the bookmaker with the exception of Parramatta Eels v Manly Sea Eagles.
The model is recommending one match as good value to stake on at current odds (Cronulla Sharks to win against Canberra Raiders while Home)
Please note the game ordering is a little screwy - and the games aren’t in correct order of play this round! Working on a fix!
Also note, although the model is tipping Titans to win this weekend the model isn’t factoring in the return of star Jarryd Hayne.
Predictions
| game_no | tip_text | perceived_prob | bookie_prob | bookie_odds | agree_with_bookie |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cronulla Sharks to win against Canberra Raiders while Home | 0.703 | 0.699 | 1.43 | Y |
| 2 | Gold Coast Titans to win against New Zealand Warriors while Home | 0.525 | 0.645 | 1.55 | Y |
| 3 | Melbourne Storm to win against South Sydney Rabbitohs while Home | 0.797 | 0.909 | 1.10 | Y |
| 4 | Canterbury Bulldogs to win against Newcastle Knights while Away | 0.823 | 0.877 | 1.14 | Y |
| 5 | Parramatta Eels to win against Manly Sea Eagles while Home | 0.588 | 0.351 | 2.85 | N |
| 6 | Penrith Panthers to win against Sydney Roosters while Home | 0.538 | 0.637 | 1.57 | Y |
| 7 | Brisbane Broncos to win against St George Illawarra Dragons while Away | 0.595 | 0.806 | 1.24 | Y |
| 8 | North Queensland Cowboys to win against Wests Tigers while Away | 0.665 | 0.704 | 1.42 | Y |
NB Bookmaker odds (taken from www.Sportsbet.com.au) as at 4-August-2016
Stake recommendation/s
Recommended bets are those with a perceived probability of > ~0.66 and a positive expected return.
| game_no | tip_text | perceived_prob | bookie_odds | expected_return | recommend_stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cronulla Sharks to win against Canberra Raiders while Home | 0.703 | 1.43 | 0.006 | Y |
| 2 | Gold Coast Titans to win against New Zealand Warriors while Home | 0.525 | 1.55 | -0.186 | N |
| 3 | Melbourne Storm to win against South Sydney Rabbitohs while Home | 0.797 | 1.10 | -0.123 | N |
| 4 | Canterbury Bulldogs to win against Newcastle Knights while Away | 0.823 | 1.14 | -0.061 | N |
| 5 | Parramatta Eels to win against Manly Sea Eagles while Home | 0.588 | 2.85 | 0.677 | N |
| 6 | Penrith Panthers to win against Sydney Roosters while Home | 0.538 | 1.57 | -0.155 | N |
| 7 | Brisbane Broncos to win against St George Illawarra Dragons while Away | 0.595 | 1.24 | -0.262 | N |
| 8 | North Queensland Cowboys to win against Wests Tigers while Away | 0.665 | 1.42 | -0.056 | N |
Conclude
Lets see how the model performs this round!