NRL S2016 R26 prediction and staking guide
maxwellAI
30 August 2016
Summary
Ok! This is the last round of the regular season!!
This week all predictions are in line with the bookmaker and four matches have been identified as good value.
Specifically, value bets are:
Melbourne Storm to win against Cronulla Sharks while Home (to take out the minor premiership)
Canterbury Bulldogs to win against South Sydney Rabbitohs while Home
North Queensland Cowboys to win against Gold Coast Titans while Home
St George Illawarra Dragons to win against Newcastle Knights while Home
Also note that I have a fair few bets which I predict a win at >66% or close to 66% and due to sportsbet ongoing promotion of 8 point margin cash back betting you might want to take a look at these bets as well.
Predictions
| game_no | tip_text | perceived_prob | bookie_prob | bookie_odds | agree_with_bookie |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brisbane Broncos to win against Sydney Roosters while Home | 0.753 | 0.781 | 1.28 | Y |
| 2 | Canterbury Bulldogs to win against South Sydney Rabbitohs while Home | 0.778 | 0.606 | 1.65 | Y |
| 3 | Melbourne Storm to win against Cronulla Sharks while Home | 0.718 | 0.690 | 1.45 | Y |
| 4 | New Zealand Warriors to win against Parramatta Eels while Home | 0.656 | 0.704 | 1.42 | Y |
| 5 | North Queensland Cowboys to win against Gold Coast Titans while Home | 0.776 | 0.758 | 1.32 | Y |
| 6 | Penrith Panthers to win against Manly Sea Eagles while Home | 0.685 | 0.781 | 1.28 | Y |
| 7 | St George Illawarra Dragons to win against Newcastle Knights while Home | 0.884 | 0.752 | 1.33 | Y |
| 8 | Canberra Raiders to win against Wests Tigers while Away | 0.626 | 0.606 | 1.65 | Y |
NB Bookmaker odds (taken from www.Sportsbet.com.au) as at 30-August-2016
Stake recommendation/s
Recommended bets are those with a perceived probability of > ~0.66 and a positive expected return.
| game_no | tip_text | perceived_prob | bookie_odds | expected_return | recommend_stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brisbane Broncos to win against Sydney Roosters while Home | 0.753 | 1.28 | -0.036 | N |
| 2 | Canterbury Bulldogs to win against South Sydney Rabbitohs while Home | 0.778 | 1.65 | 0.283 | Y |
| 3 | Melbourne Storm to win against Cronulla Sharks while Home | 0.718 | 1.45 | 0.041 | Y |
| 4 | New Zealand Warriors to win against Parramatta Eels while Home | 0.656 | 1.42 | -0.069 | N |
| 5 | North Queensland Cowboys to win against Gold Coast Titans while Home | 0.776 | 1.32 | 0.025 | Y |
| 6 | Penrith Panthers to win against Manly Sea Eagles while Home | 0.685 | 1.28 | -0.124 | N |
| 7 | St George Illawarra Dragons to win against Newcastle Knights while Home | 0.884 | 1.33 | 0.175 | Y |
| 8 | Canberra Raiders to win against Wests Tigers while Away | 0.626 | 1.65 | 0.032 | N |
Conclude
Lets see how the model performs this round!